Echopark Texas Grand Prix Preview: New Road Course

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series visits the Circuit of the Americas road course for the first time in its history.  This track is a 20-turn, 3.426-mile road course in Austin, Texas. The event is 68 laps, divided into three stages of 15 laps, 17 laps and 36 laps.  Top speeds are limited by the highly-technical layout and 20 challenging turns.  

The circuit is reminiscent of the many Formula One tracks that dot most of the landscape of Europe.  In fact, the facility was created as venue to specifically host F1 events.  The track is really unlike any other road course that NASCAR races on with the possible exception of the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course.  IMSA and F1 races regularly at COTA and IndyCar just started racing at the circuit in 2019.  NASCAR will now add its name to the list of world-class racing series that compete at Circuit of the Americas.

Since this is a completely new race, at a completely new course, we have no historical loop stats to examine this weekend.  That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely without some numbers.  For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated the last two seasons on the various road circuits of the Cup Series.  It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on winding circuits.  The data will be over the last two seasons, or five races, so it will be fresh statistics.  In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International, the Daytona Road Course and the Charlotte Roval over the past two seasons, sorted by average finish.

This weekend we will witness a little history being made.  For the first time ever, NASCAR will compete on the road circuit in Austin, Texas.  Circuit of the Americas is a purpose-built Formula 1 spec track.  Opened in 2012, it has hosted a variety of racing series over the last several years.  For North America, it is the motor racing equivalent to Le Mans.  Since it's opening, COTA has hosted IndyCar, Formula 1, IMSA as well as some other racing series.  Now NASCAR will get to add their name to the list and bring the biggest stars in stock car racing to the challenging circuit in Texas. 

The 2021 Cup Series schedule has an emphasis on road course racing.  There are seven events in the calendar this season, up from the typical three we've seen in recent years.  This added road course racing will favor a number of drivers who thrive at this style of racing.  As for this inaugural event at COTA, the drivers who have exceptional road racing skills will shine, and those who don't will struggle.  We believe the statistical table above will be our greatest aide in evaluating drivers this weekend and projecting potential performance.  We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – Despite some bad luck in the season's first road course event at Daytona, Elliott has been the immovable force on these winding tracks the last few seasons.  With four victories in his last five road course starts, this young driver and team have to be considered the top contender to win the Echopark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.  During Elliott's five-race span of dominance he's led a combined 220 laps, including 44 at Daytona earlier this season in a start that didn't turn out to be a victory.  However, had late-race contact between he and Denny Hamlin not turned sour, Elliott could very likely be five-for-five right now.  The No. 9 Chevrolet team is the gold standard right now in road course racing, and Elliott will be tough to beat in this inaugural race at COTA.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been there to snap up the wins that Elliott misses out on in recent seasons.  However, the cupboard his been a bit leaner the last two seasons with just one victory in the last five road course starts for Truex and the No. 19 Toyota team.  That victory came at Sonoma in 2019, but Truex does have a pair of Top-3 finishes on the road circuits since that win.  With four-career wins on these style tracks and being a three-time winner this season alone, we can't overlook this driver and team.  Truex and crew chief James Small have done some masterful work in 2021 getting Truex back to the pinnacle of the sport after Cole Pearn's departure from the team at the end of 2019. Truex excels at the technicalities of road course racing and is best-positioned to challenge Elliott this Sunday afternoon.    

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin hasn't been able to wrestle a road course win from the dynamic duo the last couple seasons, but he's been painfully close on more than one occasion.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 5 laps and finished an impressive third-place in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 earlier this season at Daytona.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota also had a brilliant runner-up finish on that same road course the previous summer in the Go Bowling 235.  With four Top-5 finishes in the last six road course events, Hamlin has been no slouch at all and has only been overshadowed by Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr's brilliance.  If there's a driver in the field this Sunday at COTA that can sneak a win away from these two titans, it's Hamlin and his No. 11 Toyota team. 

Joey Logano – Logano was incredibly impressive earlier this season on the Daytona road course.  He led 10 laps and was in the running for the win late but settled for the runner-up finish to Christopher Bell.  That's Logano's second-straight runner-up finish on a Cup Series road course dating back to last October's Charlotte Roval outing.  That event last Fall saw Logano finish runner-up to Chase Elliott in the Bank of America Roval 400.  The Penske Racing star doesn't have a deep resume racing on these style tracks the last several years.  His success has been more recent in nature, but it would be foolish not to have Logano in the contender status discussion this weekend. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – Coming off the sixth-place Dover finish, Harvick will now set his sights on the challenging 20-turn course at COTA.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has been clearly a "consistent" road course driver compared to Truex and Elliott's excellence over the past three seasons.  Harvick has picked up five Top-10 finishes and one 11th-place finish in his last seven road course starts.  That level of performance is pretty good, but not as sharp as the numbers Truex and Elliott post.  However, we want to focus on Harvick's last outing at the Daytona circuit as a gage of potential this weekend.  In late February he peddled the No. 4 Ford to a strong sixth-place finish in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253.  He was steady throughout that performance and he should be again Sunday at Circuit of the Americas.

Alex Bowman – Last weekend's Dover winner has not only displayed oval excellence, but Bowman has shown great road racing skills the last couple seasons.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver has three Top 10's in his last four road course starts, including a brilliant runner-up finish at the Charlotte Roval in 2019.  This season has been a coming out party for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet.  After last weekend's big win at the Monster Mile, Bowman is now a two-time winner in 2021.  This new event on the COTA road circuit provides him with an opportunity to stay on a roll and add another Top-10 performance to his growing pile.  We don't believe Bowman will waste this opportunity and could be one of the surprise finishers in Sunday's Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

William Byron – The surging Hendrick Motorsports youngster is riding a whopping 11-race Top-10 streak into Texas this week.  Byron has been on fire all season and it looks as though nothing will derail this young driver's current consistency.  COTA will present a challenge for Byron but we believe he'll be up to the task.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet had a rough outing last time out at the Daytona road course, but his prior three road course efforts were sixth-, eighth- and sixth-place finishes dating back to the end of 2019.  During that three-race span Byron led a combined 50 laps, so he wasn't just playing follow-the-leader.  We expect this driver and team to extend their huge Top-10 streak after Sunday's inaugural Cup Series event at Circuit of the Americas.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has generally been a Top-10 driver most weeks, although he was 12th-place this past Sunday at the Monster Mile.  The No. 12 Penske Racing team has been competitive in 2021.  The young driver has had some success on the road circuits the last couple seasons.  Blaney was a surprise winner at the Charlotte Roval in 2018, and he's collected four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the road course races since then.  So he's been cracking the Top 5 at a strong 57-percent rate in the last seven events.  Blaney was a somewhat disappointing 15th-place at the Daytona road course in February, but he should shake that off and rebound nicely this weekend.  Blaney has a ton of fantasy racing upside in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is coming off a subpar weekend at Dover last week.  Keselowski finished 16th at the Monster Mile and will look to get back inside the Top 10 this week.  He'll look to hit the reset button at the new Circuit of the Americas event.  Keselowski has been an up-and-down performer on the road circuits over the years.  However, he does have a combined seven Top-5 and 10 Top 10's between Sonoma, Watkins Glen, Daytona and the Charlotte Roval.  What's more intriguing is this surging driver's recent exploits on the road courses.  Keselowski has scored three Top 10's in his last five road course starts.  That includes his strong fifth-place finish on the Daytona circuit in February.  The No. 2 Ford team is in a good place right now, and should have no trouble challenging the Top 10 Sunday at Circuit of the Americas.

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is suffering through a terrible season, but there's reason to believe his struggles could be ending.  Solid Top-15 finishes in two of the last three events point towards better days ahead.  Busch's road racing skills are lesser known that some other drivers, but still very impressive.  The veteran owns a Sonoma victory in his resume and 23 Top-10 finishes combined between all of the Cup Series road courses.  That's a strong 53-percent Top-10 rate on the winding circuits.  Earlier this season in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona, Busch led 2 laps and collected his only Top-5 finish of the 2021 season to this point.  This is a driver and team with a very high ceiling and reasonable floor for this first-ever Circuit of the Americas race.

AJ Allmendinger – The Xfinity Series regular and road racing expert will make a Cup Series start for Kaulig Racing this weekend.  Allmendinger has an impressive road course resume that includes one win and 10 Top-10 finishes over the years.  The 16.0 average finish on these style tracks is by far the best in his resume.  Allmendinger has a pair of seventh-place finishes in his last two road course starts.  The first came at the Charlotte Roval in 2018 and the second came at Daytona earlier this season.  Kaulig Racing will give this veteran driver a strong Chevrolet Camaro this weekend and Allmendinger will know exactly what to do with it.    

Christopher Bell – The surprise winner of the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona in February slips into our sleepers list this week.  Bell has never really been a distinguished performer on these style tracks, yet we have to realize he has just three Cup Series starts on the road circuits.  So in a sense, he's just getting started in this style of racing at this level of the sport.  When we look at Bell's Xfinity Series career racing on these style tracks we see why he won at Daytona earlier this season.  The young driver has one victory, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in nine-career Xfinity Series starts on the winding circuits.  That works out to a stellar 9.3 average finish.  Outside of short tracks, the road courses were his second-best tracks in that division of NASCAR.  We believe Bell presents a lot of fantasy racing upside in Sunday's Echopark Texas Grand Prix. 

Austin Cindric – This will be a weekend for lesser-known drivers and Cindric certainly fits that description.  The Xfinity Series regular will make one of his spot starts in the Cup Series this week at COTA.  Cindric will pilot the No. 33 Ford of Penske Racing, so the car and team will be reliable.  The young driver already has three victories so far in the Xfinity Series in 2021, so he's racing very well right now.  Cindric has an eye-popping four wins and 11 Top 10's in 14 Xfinity Series stars on the road circuits for a strong 6.6 average finish.  This style of racing is truly his gift.  Despite his low-level fantasy ranking and salary in salary cap leagues, Cindric brings a lot of bang potential for the buck.  He's not a driver to overlook when filling out your lineups for Circuit of the Americas.   

Michael McDowell – The veteran driver to watch closely in the deeper tiers of weekly line up and salary cap leagues is McDowell.  He's been a consistent performer over the years on both the superspeedway ovals and the road circuits.  They're his best tracks by far.  McDowell earned a strong eighth-place finish at the Daytona circuit in February.  He and crew chief, Drew Blickensderfer, have a good handle on these style tracks.  Blickensderfer guided Marcos Ambrose to several Top-5 and Top-10 finishes on the road courses between 2012 and 2014, so that experience is quite valuable to McDowell.  With two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four road racing events, we believe this driver and team are pegged to crack the Top 15 Sunday at COTA.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson – For players of weekly lineup and salary cap leagues, you've probably been working Larson overtime the past few races.  The week in the schedule has finally come to fade the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet.  Larson still has the speed and skill to potentially crack the Top 10, but road course racing is certainly not his strength.  With just four Top-10 finishes in 15-career road course starts and an average finish of 17.0, this is a race to pass on Larson.  The Circuit of the Americas is an unseen track for most NASCAR drivers, outside of the simulator, and the learning curve this weekend will be steep.  We like Larson much more on intermediate and larger ovals, so give him a bench this week and save the start. 

Kyle Busch – It's not often that we put Busch in the slow down list, so pay close attention.  Road course racing has been a love-hate affair for Busch over the years, but mostly hate recently.  He does have wins, but Busch seems to have many more letdowns in this style of racing than successes.  The reason for our caution this weekend is twofold.  His current inconsistency in this style of racing, and the uncharted waters of COTA.  Busch's last four road course starts have all been finishes outside the Top 30, including his forgettable 35th-place finish at Daytona in February.  Those most recent efforts have dropped his average finish on road circuits to 15.5, which ranks them as his poorest finishing tracks in the series.  Sunday could be a real struggle for this driver and team.

Aric Almirola –  Not much has gone right for Almirola and the No. 10 SHR team this season.  With just one Top 10 so far and coming off a disastrous 37th-place finish at the Monster Mile, this is not the week to be shaking down a new race track.  While NASCAR will give the teams some rare practice and qualifying laps this weekend, we're still reserved on Almirola's chances.  He finished a subpar 17th at the Daytona circuit earlier this season and that's likely better than Almirola will do this week.  The veteran driver of the No. 10 Ford has just a 9-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks and his 20.6 career average finish on road courses is nothing to get excited about. 

Austin Dillon – Despite coming off a steady 14th-place finish at Dover this past Sunday, the No. 3 Chevy team is headed for rough waters this weekend at Circuit of the Americas.  The veteran driver has been slicing up intermediate ovals this season, but this is far from that type of racing.  Dillon has historically struggled on the road circuits, and they're his worst tracks in his NASCAR resume.  In 16-career starts on these tracks, Dillon has never managed to grab a Top-10 finish and his average finish is a bloated 24.8.  Dillon's last six road course starts have netted only one Top-20 finish and a 28.3 average finish across the span.  This is clearly an event and weekend where we don't expect to see Dillon finish among the Top 20.  It's best to leave him on the bench for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.