Daytona 500 Duels Preview: Qualifying for the Daytona 500

Speedweeks 2024 will get underway with lap-timed qualifying. However, as a part of the qualifications and events, NASCAR uses twin qualifying races to determine most of the starting grid for the Daytona 500. These two 150-mile qualifying races (60 laps each) set the odds and evens on the starting grid and give the fans a good taste of the action that will be coming their way on Sunday. Most fantasy racing leagues don't recognize this heat race doubleheader in the fantasy racing season, but some do along with many daily fantasy racing games and racing pools that form specifically for the Duels. The competition is open to all NASCAR Cup Series teams who are entered for the Daytona 500. The Duels are how NASCAR determines which teams make the field for the Great American Race, and which teams have to pack up and head home because they didn't make the cut for the 40-car field.

NASCAR determines the pole position and outside pole position based on lap-time qualifying runs on the prior day (Wednesday). Once the front row is locked in after timed qualifying runs, the odds from timed qualifying make up the field of Duel 1 and the evens make the field of Duel 2. In last season's twin qualifying races, we had a field of 21 drivers in each of the two Duels. We will see the same number again this year with two open cars going home and not advancing to the Great American Race. 

These twin qualifiers are unlike our normal NASCAR events due to the split field and 150-mile sprint race for a starting grid spot. It typically creates conservative racing among the favorites since you need to preserve that car for the Daytona 500, and it creates frantic racing among the teams not locked into the Daytona 500. Those drivers and teams are scrambling and taking risks for every spot they can grab in order to make the field for the Great American Race. For our statistical analysis, we've looked back at the past two seasons of superspeedway racing to get a feel for our top contenders this week.  Below are the statistics for the last eight Cup Series events on superspeedway ovals. These include Daytona and Talladega.    

These twin qualifiers are unlike the typical Cup Series events, so we'll handle the prognostications a bit different as well.  We'll give you our picks for who'll contend for the win in either of the Duels. The fields will be set after lap-time qualifying (Wednesday, February 14) which is the day before the Duels, so you'll have to match up which driver competes in which race. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The four-time superspeedway winner and 2021 Coke Zero Sugar 400 victor at Daytona has been one of the top performers on the big ovals in recent seasons. He's racked up two wins, five Top-5 finishes and 157 laps led between Daytona and Talladega since that 2021 victory in Daytona. Blaney is a one-time winner of the Duels (2018) and he finished a strong third-place in each of his last two Duels, leading a combined 52 laps in those events. Simply put, we've seen a whole lot of Blaney racing up front in these superspeedway events of the last few years. The reigning Cup Series champion will likely want to make a big statement this week leading up to the Daytona 500, so don't be surprised of the driver of the No. 12 Ford dominates his Duel.   

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a three-time winner of the Duels (2008, 2014 and 2017) and he is one of the more dominant superspeedway performers of this generation. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and as recently as 2020. With 1,100-career laps led at Daytona and Talladega, you'll find few other drivers who know as well how to get around superspeedways. Hamlin had a bit of a down season in terms of finishing these races in 2023, but he left a big impression his last time out at Talladega last October. Hamlin led 3 laps and finished an impressive third-place in the YellaWood 500. It was his 22nd-career Top 5 on a superspeedway oval. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota will be a big factor in the Daytona Duels.

Kyle Busch – Busch has always had a love-hate affair with superspeedway racing. However, he seemed to shrug that off with his new race team in 2023. The star driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet won the Talladega spring event, finished in the Top 10 of the Daytona late-summer event and had enough speed to lead laps and look very competitive in all four Daytona and Talladega races. Busch is a three-time winner of the Duels and he very nearly won a fourth last season. The veteran driver led 28 laps in the 2023 Duel, but would get rolled up in a late-race, multi-car crash that would involve six cars. As it relates to points races, Busch is a three-time winner between the two big ovals. He clearly knows how to get things done in this style of racing.              

Chase Elliott – Elliott is a two-time winner at Talladega, but he's never broke through for a win at Daytona International Speedway, despite three-career pole positions at the Florida track. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a two-time winner of the Duels, 2017 and 2018 in back-to-back fashion. After suffering through a broken leg and winless 2023 campaign, Elliott will be out to make a big impression in this Speedweeks at Daytona. This 60-lap qualifying race is the perfect opportunity for the No. 9 Chevrolet team to shine given Elliott's past success in big oval performance. His last three superspeedway events of last season were 12th-, fourth- and seventh-place finishes with 28 combined laps led. This driver and team certainly displayed they can be fast on these big ovals.            

Joey Logano – Logano is one of the more successful drivers in superspeedway racing in recent years. His one-career victory at Daytona and three-career victories at Talladega speak volumes of Logano's ability in this form of racing. The Penske Racing star has also won three Duels, including this event last season and finished runner-up twice in the Duels. All those finishes have been recent as well, coming since 2016. Logano and his No. 22 Ford team have been very proficient in superspeedway racing and always bring fast cars to Daytona to compete on this oval. He led 29 laps in last season's Duel and captured the victory over Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney. Logano will race among the leaders in this Daytona 500 qualifying race.

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner has finished runner-up in his last two Daytona Duels. It's been a bumpy first couple seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series for Cindric, but he has excelled at superspeedway performance. The driver of the No. 2 Ford returns to Daytona this week to kick off a new season and look to challenge for another Harley J. Earl Trophy. Cindric has performed well on the big ovals since his Daytona 500 win two seasons ago. He has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega along with 49 laps led. Cindric's last appearance on a superspeedway netted 15 laps led and a strong fifth-place finish in last October's YellaWood 500. That's a good last look heading into this week's Duels.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran had a career season in 2023, and a big part of that was Buescher's superspeedway performance last year. The driver of the No. 17 Ford won the late-summer Daytona race (Coke Zero Sugar 400) and nabbed three Top-5 finishes on the big tracks of Daytona and Talladega last season. Buescher's 37 laps led in these races illustrates that he spends a lot of time up front on the big ovals. As it relates to the Daytona Duels, the veteran driver won his Duel in 2022 in a very strong performance, leading 17 laps and outlasting a melee that would break out on the last lap when Joey Logano threw a late block while leading. Last season's Duel would see Buescher finish a strong fourth-place and secure good starting track position for last season's Daytona 500. 

Brad Keselowski – The seven-time superspeedway winner has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence on the big tracks that last couple seasons. Keselowski led 42 laps and very nearly won last year's Daytona 500 were it not for a late-race crash. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford would return to Daytona later in the season and grab a brilliant runner-up finish in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. That was one of two Top 5's on the big ovals for this driver and team. Keselowski's 55 laps led on superspeedways last year underscores the speed and excellence he displayed. The veteran driver won his lone Daytona Duel victory in 2022 and he's finished Top 5 in three of his last four Duels, including last season's strong fourth-place finish. Keselowski will be a face battling among the leaders this Thursday evening.      

William Byron – Byron has been a hit-or-miss superspeedway performer to this point in his NASCAR Cup Series career. However, he seemed to put together a good string of finishes last season. Byron nabbed a runner-up finish in the late-summer Talladega event and three Top-10 finishes on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. He overcame a rash of crashes that had plagued him the previous season. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster is a one-time winner of the Duels (2020) and he's sat on the pole or outside pole in his last three Daytona Duels. Speed has never been the problem, just luck with finishing, which seems to be turning in the right direction. Byron and the No. 24 team are those dark horse candidates that could jump up and surprise the other contenders in this installment of the twin Daytona 500 qualifying races.