Ally 400 Preview: Music City Showdown

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Nashville Superspeedway after debuting at the track two seasons ago. This oval is a 1.33-mile track that is concrete paved and features 14-degree banking in the turns. The event is 300 laps, divided into three stages of 90 laps, 95 laps and 115 laps. Average speeds will likely be near 160 mph as the concrete surface provides high grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing. The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and World Wide Technology Raceway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals. From its opening in 2001 Nashville Superspeedway hosted Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series events until the track's closure in 2011. The facility had not been a part of the NASCAR schedule for close to a decade until two years ago and the Ally 400's successful return.

Since this is just the third race at a new track, we have very limited data to examine. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals, as well as the loop data from the last two Nashville Superspeedway races. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks. This loop data will be fresh, but bear in mind that the sample size is very small. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from the last two races at Nashville Superspeedway.

Coming into this weekend's 400-mile event we're going to rely a lot on current hot streaks and we're going to look with a critical eye at recent performance on intermediate ovals. We believe the statistical table above will be some help in determining drivers to target this week. However, we have to realize the small sample size of two races and one of those being in the old generation stock car.

In last season's race at Nashville, we witnessed Chase Elliott surge into the lead late and survive a late caution/restart to hold off Kurt Busch for the win. Denny Hamlin would dominate most of the race and lead 114 laps, but he would fade to sixth-place by the checkered flag. That win by Elliott gives Chevrolet two-straight victories at Nashville Superspeedway when combined with Kyle Larson's 2021 victory at the track. We believe a power shift could be stirring for this weekend and we could see a completely new victor and new manufacturer in victory lane at Nashville. For example, we've seen Kyle Busch (Chevrolet), Ryan Blaney (Ford) and Denny Hamlin (Toyota) win the last three intermediate oval events in the schedule. Each of those races saw multiple lap leaders, lots of parity and margins of victory less than 1-second, with the exception of Hamlin's Kansas win. We should be in for more of that uncertainty Sunday in the Ally 400. In the outline below, we'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games at Nashville Superspeedway.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – Busch had struggled on these intermediate ovals until he grabbed a sixth-place recently at Charlotte, then swept into victory lane a couple races ago at Gateway. The Richard Childress Racing star is trending in the right direction and it all looks very encouraging heading to Nashville this week. Busch has yet to leave his mark on the concrete oval in Music City, but he has led a combined 64 laps in the first two races at the track and even qualified on the outside pole here two years ago. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has three victories thus far this season and he finished an impressive runner-up at Sonoma prior to the off-week. Busch will be a top contender to win the Ally 400.

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event two years ago in a dominant performance. Larson led 264 of the 300 laps and pounded the field into the pavement to win by more than 4-seconds over Ross Chastain. Larson hasn't been nearly as dominant this season, but he has been getting increasingly better in recent weeks. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet finished a strong fourth-place recently at Gateway, and collected an impressive runner-up finish at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago. Over the last two intermediate oval events, Larson has led a combined 90 laps. Considering that Larson was a fourth-place finisher in this event one year ago, we believe he'll be one of the drivers to beat this weekend.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been an up-and-down performer this season, but he's generally had strong performances on the cookie cutter ovals. He won at the Kansas oval recently in the Advent Health 400 and was a runner-up finisher at Gateway most recently. Hamlin was a non-factor in his Nashville Superspeedway debut two seasons ago, but he came to this track with a roar in 2022. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota led 114 laps in this event one year ago and finished a strong sixth-place in last season's Ally 400. Those notes will come in quite handy this weekend, and hopefully the breaks fall his way in this one. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has performed well on these size tracks in recent weeks and his outing in this event last season is very encouraging.

Ryan Blaney – His recent power surge includes a win at Charlotte and a sixth-place finish at Gateway, and it gets Blaney added to the contenders list this week at Nashville Superspeedway. The Penske Racing youngster earned a strong third-place finish in last season's Ally 400 and that was a great rebound effort in light of his DNF in the inaugural race at Nashville two seasons ago. For the season, Blaney has an 8.6 average finish on the intermediate ovals and over 250 laps led. It's really quite surprising he's only won a single race on the intermediate ovals. The driver of the No. 12 Ford will get a chance to rectify that statistic Sunday in this 300-lap event in Music City.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

William Byron – Byron has been razor sharp on cookie cutter ovals this season and you could even make the argument that he belongs in the contenders list this week. He won earlier this season at Las Vegas, he won pole positions at both Kansas and Charlotte, taking home Top-3 finishes in both those events. Most recently he was eighth-place at Gateway with 30 laps led at that similar sized oval. The 9.2 average finish on these tracks is only tarnished by Byron's crash and DNF at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished third in this event two seasons ago, and while he didn't have as much luck at Nashville last season, all the indicators look excellent heading into Sunday's Ally 400.

Joey Logano – Logano has been somewhat inconsistent on the mid-sized tracks this season, and the reason primarily he's not in the contenders list this week. However, the driver of the No. 22 Ford was recently a third-place finisher at Gateway and that underscores his worth this Sunday at Nashville Superspeedway. Now Logano can set his sights on the 1.33-mile Nashville track and look for another strong performance. He qualified third- and second-place in his first two trips to Nashville and came away with 10th- and ninth-place finishes. Those are solid, but unspectacular results. A Top-10 finish seems more than likely for this driver and team.  

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been his usual dominant self on these intermediate ovals in 2023, but Truex has been consistent. He's racked up four Top 10's in the five events to-date. Truex will now set his sights on the oval at Nashville Superspeedway. Most recently, he finished a strong fifth-place at the similar sized oval in Madison, Illinois. We would consider that to be the ceiling for Truex this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway. In this event one year ago, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota qualified well (10th), led 82 laps, but faded to a disappointing 22nd-place finish. We expect a hungry Truex to come to Tennessee this weekend and a Top-10 finish will be the result.

Chase Elliott – Elliott led 42 laps and won this event one year ago, but that might be a big ask to expect him to successfully defend that race win this weekend. Frankly, he's been struggling to get into a groove between the extended leg injury and the recent one-race suspension. However, Elliott has the experience and the skill to fetch a Top 10 in the Ally 400. Very recently, the Hendrick Motorsports star was a steady seventh-place finisher at the similar sized and similar banked Kansas Speedway. He's also qualified well and led laps in his two prior Nashville races. Elliott doesn't carry the contender tag that we're normally used to in an intermediate oval start, but he should be good enough to reward fantasy players who use him at Nashville Superspeedway.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing driver narrowly missed winning his first two starts at Nashville Superspeedway. Chastain piloted the No. 1 Chevrolet to a brilliant runner-up finish here two seasons ago, and he returned in 2022 to claim a strong fifth-place finish last season. What will he do for an encore? It could be big. Chastain hasn't been as consistent this season on the mid-sized ovals as he was last year. However, that didn't stop him from recently collecting an impressive fifth-place finish at Kansas Speedway. We've downgraded this driver and team just a bit to the sleepers list this week to reflect some of their recent inconsistency, but it's clear that Chastain likes this track and has big potential in the Ally 400.

Christopher Bell – Bell has been both extremes on cookie cutter ovals this season. Early-campaign Top-5 finishes at Las Vegas and Atlanta have given way to subpar efforts at Kansas and Charlotte more recently. It's a prime reason why we have downgraded the Joe Gibbs Racing youngster from solid plays to sleepers this week. He did, however, finish a respectable 11th-place at Gateway most recently. That's a glimmer of hope coming to Nashville this weekend. The really good news is that Bell has been solid in his two prior Nashville Superspeedway efforts. He's nabbed ninth- and eighth-place finishes the last two years, and that is a great deal of experience to rely on for this race.

Kevin Harvick –  The Stewart Haas Racing star has been unspectacular, but consistent on these mid-sized oval the last few weeks. Finishes of 11th-, 11th- and 10th-place have been Harvick's recent body of work at Kansas, Charlotte and Gateway. Much like Christopher Bell above, the driver of the No. 4 Ford has a good Nashville Superspeedway resume to lean on this weekend. Harvick has fifth- and 10th-place finishes at this facility in his first two starts. That's a very encouraging sign heading into this third Cup Series event at the concrete paved Tennessee oval. Harvick and the No. 4 SHR team should be good qualifiers and good finishers in the Ally 400.    

Michael McDowell – After a slow start to the season, McDowell has begun to turn things around. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has finishes of ninth- and seventh-place in his last two starts prior to the off-week and finally bringing some momentum into the Ally 400. McDowell's hot streak started with the steady ninth-place finish at Gateway a couple weeks ago and totally bucked the poor trend he'd had to this point on intermediate ovals this season. As it relates to Nashville Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 34 Ford has reasonable finishes in his first two starts at the concrete oval. McDowell placed 16th- in his debut two seasons ago and 13th-place in last year's Ally 400. We believe he'll be even better Sunday afternoon.  

Daniel Suarez – With a 15th-place finish at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago and a more recent, strong seventh-place run at Gateway before the off-week, Suarez is improving on the intermediate tracks. That's a good sign for the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team heading to Tennessee this week. Suarez has had two good outings at Nashville Superspeedway to this point. He finished seventh in the Cup Series debut at the oval two seasons ago and was an acceptable 15th-place in this event one year ago after a strong fifth-place qualifying effort. The veteran Mexican driver is certainly not a major threat to win this race, but his trajectory indicates some steady improvement and some potential to challenge the Top 10 at Nashville this weekend.

Chris Buescher – This pick flies a bit in the face of recent history at Nashville. Buescher has struggled tremendously in his two prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway with finishes of 36th- and 30th-place. However, the veteran driver didn't qualify terribly for those races with an average start of 16.0. The spark to this fantasy pick is that Buescher has been surging lately, and especially on the mid-sized tracks. Finishes of 17th-, eighth- and 12th-place at Kansas, Charlotte and Gateway work out to a respectable 12.3 average finish. He's also fresh off a stunning fourth-place effort on the Sonoma road circuit just prior to the off-week. Buescher is in the midst of a career-best season and the Roush Fenway Keselowski driver should be relied on at Nashville Superspeedway.       

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Alex Bowman – Bowman is typically a top performer on the intermediate ovals. However, he's been slowed this season by the back injury that sidelined him for three races. Bowman's finishes since returning from the back injury have been a mixed bag of 12th-, 26th- and 15th-place. Not the usual impressive numbers we've come to expect from the No. 48 team. When we take his current level of performance and contrast it with his Nashville resume, we see struggles could be in store for the veteran Hendrick Motorsports driver this weekend. Bowman has had a mixed bag at this track as well. The qualifying efforts have been decent with a 10.0 average start, but his Top-15 and DNF finishes work out to a subpar 25.0 average finish.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick had been on a heater until his crash and DNF at Gateway and equally disappointing late-race disappointment at Sonoma prior to the break. He has only one Top 10 in the past four races and hopes to have put that past him during the off-week. Reddick has been a strong performer on the intermediate ovals this season, but that last look at a mid-sized track was his DNF at Gateway a few weeks ago. As it pertains to Nashville Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 45 Toyota has not fallen in love with the concrete surface there. His first two starts at the track have amounted to little more than a pair of subpar 18th-place finishes.  

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's 23rd- and 29th-place finishes in his first two Nashville Superspeedway starts are a big red flag ahead of this weekend's Ally 400. In addition, the driver of the No. 6 Ford has been a pedestrian performer on the intermediate ovals in 2023 with an average finish of 14.3. Most recently, Keselowski labored to a tail-end of the lead lap finish of 28th-place at Gateway. That's not a very good last look at a mid-sized oval coming to Nashville this week. Keselowski hasn't visited the Top 10 in the last three races leading up to this weekend, so we believe it's best to keep him benched at Nashville Superspeedway this Sunday afternoon.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had been on a tear on intermediate ovals up until his recent crash and DNF at Gateway. The 23XI Racing driver had three fourth-place finishes at Las Vegas, Kansas and Charlotte. However, the DNF and 30th-place performance at Gateway a few weeks ago has put a cold spell on the No. 23 Toyota team. It might be hard to shake considering how Wallace has performed at Nashville Superspeedway in his prior two starts. Finishes of 20th- and 12th-place are not a train wreck to be sure, but they do lack the pop that we're looking for in our fantasy racing lineups. That 16.0 average finish just seems to be where Wallace is headed this weekend in Nashville.