4EVER 400 Preview: Championship Clock Ticking

This week we head to South Florida and return to Homestead-Miami Speedway for a 400-mile race on this challenging intermediate oval. The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the 1.5-mile true oval with variable banking for the first time since October of last year.  Homestead-Miami Speedway's unique configuration which includes relatively flat straight-aways of 3 degrees and 20 degree variable banked turns presents a challenge unlike any other facility on the circuit. This unique mid-sized track will be the eighth race in NASCAR's Chase for the Cup, which crowns this season's champion.

For 21 years Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the NASCAR Cup Series season finale. It was the climax of the NASCAR playoffs and where the Cup Series champion was crowned each season. The sanctioning body shook up the schedule after 2019 and moved Homestead to an early-season date. With the Coronavirus pandemic, we saw Homestead's new date slip into the mid-summer of 2020, but then return to early in the calendar during 2021. For the last two seasons this 400-mile event has moved closer to its old schedule slot. NASCAR returned Homestead to the playoff calendar in 2022 and made this unique oval one of the lead up races to the conclusion of the season. We haven't raced at the South Florida track for a full year so a lot of surprises await our drivers and teams this weekend. However, the last two events have shown that Hendrick Motorsports may have finally wrestled this track from the control of Joe Gibbs Racing.

Since we only come to Homestead-Miami Speedway once a year, we will need to rely on historical information to a great extent for this Sunday's race. The usual suspects perform very well at the South Florida oval, and most of them are performing well right now. While current hot streaks and similar track performance will play a modest part in this week's picks, we'll still need to review some past data to outline potential top performers for this event. Here are the loop stats for the last 18 races at Homestead.

This weekend is shaping up to be a big duel between Toyota and Chevrolet. Drivers for these two manufacturers have been vying for supremacy in recent intermediate oval races and they both won in the last four Homestead-Miami Speedway races. As you can see from the table above, there is a pretty heavy dose of Chevrolet drivers at the top at Homestead. In the last Cup Series race at HMS, Kyle Larson dominated the day and led 199 of the 267 laps en route to the win. It was his first-career victory at the South Florida oval. He had the solution for Ross Chastain and Martin Truex Jr.'s challenges that afternoon and came away with the win in the Dixie Vodka 400.    

If another driver outside of this trio hopes to steal the thunder on Sunday, it could likely be William Byron. He has been strong on intermediate ovals dating back to the very beginning of the season, and he's shown a proficiency for the oval in South Florida having won there in 2021. The other group of contenders for the Homestead crown would include names like Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. This trio was among the top performers on the intermediate sized ovals for most of this season. We'll break down all the contenders, solid plays and sleepers you need to consider to dominate your fantasy leagues at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson's strong drive and win at Las Vegas this past week is the buzz of the Cup Series coming to South Florida. He's punched his ticket into the next round of the Chase and looking to keep the big momentum going in the 4EVER 400. Fortunately, this is one of his better ovals so staying on a roll should be pretty easy. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet likes to use the high groove at this oval and has to good effect over his career. Larson won this event one year ago and he finished runner-up at Homestead in 2016. Larson's 56-percent Top-5 rate at Homestead, along with 529-career laps led, indicate he has spent a lot of time at the front at this track. We suspect he'll be the driver to beat in the 4EVER 400.

Christopher Bell – Bell was reeling-in Kyle Larson at Las Vegas last Sunday, but would come up just 1 lap short of denying him the win in last Sunday's South Point 400. We could be in for a sequel or at the very least a rematch Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Bell has been pretty impressive in his last three intermediate oval starts. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has two pole positions, 76 laps led and finishes of eighth-, fourth- and second-place at Kansas, Texas and Las Vegas. Bell has never won in his three trips to South Florida, but he's qualified extremely well with two starts on the front 2 rows. He's poised to challenge for the win and a likely career-best Homestead finish in Sunday's 400-mile playoff battle.

Kyle Busch – Busch has put together a nice little streak coming to Homestead. Despite being eliminated from the playoffs, he's grabbed a pair of third-place finishes the last two weeks at Charlotte and Las Vegas. The Richard Childress Racing star has come on strong at Homestead-Miami Speedway the last few seasons. Busch carries an eight-race Homestead Top-10 streak into this Sunday's action with two of those being wins and one runner-up finish. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet finished ninth-place last season at this intermediate oval, but his 465-career laps led at HMS show he runs up front a lot at Homestead. Busch is looking to continue finishing the season strong, so he'll be a likely spoiler for the win Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Denny Hamlin – After a 10th-place finish at Vegas this past week, Hamlin sits third in the playoff standings coming to Homestead and looking to keep his championship hopes alive. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has three-career victories and 12 Top-10 finishes at the South Florida track. He won this event three seasons ago with the most dominant Homestead performance of his career. Hamlin led 137 laps from the pole that June afternoon in South Florida and held off Chase Elliott to collect that third-career victory at the track. The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team has been strong this year on the intermediate oval circuit. Hamlin has a pair of Top 5's and three Top 10's in his last three intermediate oval starts. He should be zeroed-in for a strong performance at one of his favorite tracks.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has been a model of consistency since the early Summer. His strong 38 laps led and fourth-place finish at Las Vegas this past week is just the most recent example of that strength. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been razor sharp on the mid-sized ovals of late. With finishes of ninth-, seventh- and fourth-place recently at Kansas, Texas and Las Vegas he rides some big momentum into South Florida this week. This has never been a track of vast success for Keselowski, but he's maintained decent performance levels at Homestead. His seven-career Top-10 finishes at Homestead work out to a respectable 47-percent Top-10 rate, and that includes his impressive fifth-place finish in this event one year ago.      

Ross Chastain – After some recent inconsistency, Chastain has rallied nicely and has put together a two-race Top-10 streak as we visit Homestead and as the season winds down. The Trackhouse Racing veteran finished a strong fifth-place at Las Vegas this past Sunday and signaled he's ready to carry that momentum into the 4EVER 400. Chastain has grabbed second- and fifth-place finishes in his last two intermediate oval events, and that's a great sign as we visit the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida. Chastain doesn't have many remarkable achievements at Homestead-Miami Speedway to this point in his career, but he did finish a Homestead career-best second-place in this event one year ago. The notes from that outing will come in very handy Sunday afternoon.

William Byron – The championship points leader has been dangerous in recent intermediate oval events. Byron grabbed a win a few weeks ago in Fort Worth and he was a seventh-place finisher this past week in Las Vegas. That gives him plenty of cred as we come to South Florida for the 4EVER 400. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster won at Homestead two seasons ago, and he won the pole position last year before finishing a respectable 12th-place. Byron led 134 combined laps in those last two Homestead events. While his 40-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead-Miami Speedway is a bit low, we have to put in context (small sample size). This driver and team are thick in the battle for this season's championship, and will race like it Sunday in the 4EVER 400.  

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is still alive in the championship hunt, but currently sixth-place at 16 points behind the cutoff for advancement, he has some work to do this weekend in Homestead. The 23XI Racing youngster has been zeroed-in on these mid-sized ovals of late with a win at Kansas a few weeks ago and a solid eighth-place finish at Las Vegas this past weekend. In addition, Reddick loves racing on this South Florida oval. He has finishes of fourth- and second-place in two of his three Cup Series starts at the track and Reddick was a two-time winner at Homestead in his Xfinity Series career. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota is a championship contender who could jump up and spoil Sunday at Homestead, but at the very least should be a face among the Top 10.     

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Miami & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – It wasn't flashy, and it wasn't headline making, but Truex pedaled to a quiet Top-10 finish at Las Vegas last weekend. That has kept his championship hopes alive despite not performing well in the playoffs. Truex has been pretty consistent on intermediate ovals this season, and that's one part of his game that hasn't slipped much. His four Top 10's in eight starts work out to a strong 50-percent rate. Truex is a one-time Homestead winner and he's finished runner-up here on three occasions. His 12 Top-10 finishes work out to a strong 67-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is far from race-winning form, but he should be good enough to crack the Top 10 at one of his favorite intermediate ovals. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney had a Top 10 taken away by NASCAR at Las Vegas last week, then he had it given back in a perplexing reversal by the sanctioning body. The good news is that Blaney has turned his season around on these intermediate ovals in the second half and kept his championship hopes alive. With win at Charlotte and Top-10 finishes at Atlanta twice and Las Vegas, Blaney has the No. 12 Ford team in position to challenge for the Top 5 at Homestead. He doesn't have stellar career stats at the 1.5-mile Florida track, but current circumstances would seem to indicate the Penske Racing star is in position to turn in a good performance. It will take a victory to assure his advancement into the championship race at Phoenix, and while that's not likely, a Top-10 finish would seem to be in the cards.

Joey Logano – This season has been a tale of inconsistency for Logano on the intermediate ovals. However, his better mid-sized tracks have produced the results. Logano also finished a brilliant fifth-place at Kansas a few weeks ago. This week we come to the 1.5-mile track at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Logano will continue to sharpen his sword in advance of the upcoming 2024 season. The Penske Racing star is a one-time Homestead winner (2018) and he's led close to 200-career laps at this facility. Logano's 43-percent Top-10 rate at Homestead is bit low for what we like to see in a solid play driver, so that's why we've slotted Logano in the sleepers list this week. The No. 22 Ford Mustang should be competitive this Sunday afternoon.  

Chris Buescher – Buescher totally bucked his trend on intermediate ovals with his 11th-place finish at Las Vegas this past week. It was a solid performance and a reversal of how he's performed on these 1.5-mile ovals most of the season. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver doesn't have big career stats at Homestead-Miami Speedway. However, Buescher did lead 57 laps at this track two seasons ago. In this event one year ago he raced to a career-best 13th-place finish at Homestead. We expect the potential for an even better finish this weekend in the 4EVER 400. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has had a great season and is still alive in the championship quest, so a gutsy performance is likely in the cards at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

Daniel Suarez – Suarez started in the rear of the field last week at Las Vegas, but he had no trouble rallying and finishing a respectable 15th-place in the South Point 400. The speed and skill were undeniable and good signs that Suarez will be competitive at Homestead-Miami Speedway this week. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the intermediate oval circuit in 2023 with most of those good efforts coming in the second half. Homestead is a track he's quite familiar with (six Cup starts) and has one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four starts to boast. While Suarez isn't involved in the playoffs, he's still racing strong and being competitive most weeks.        

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing veteran is not a playoff participant at this point, but Wallace is looking to finish the season strong in these last few events. The intermediate ovals have been more than kind to this driver and team in 2023. Wallace has four Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the 1.5-mile oval circuit this season. That includes his 13th-place finish this past week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Wallace has just four-career Cup Series starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway. His most successful outing there netted a respectable 13th-place finish in 2020. Given this team's current level of performance and Wallace's success on the mid-sized ovals this season, he should be a dependable start in the 4EVER 400.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Chase Elliott – Elliott comes to South Florida this weekend looking to erase the disappointment of last weekend's poor finish on the Las Vegas oval. He's been pretty consistent through the playoffs, but his turn for the worse at Vegas gives us some doubts coming to Homestead. Elliott will be making just his eighth-career start at the 1.5-mile South Florida oval. The young driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has just one Top-10 finish in his last four visits to Homestead-Miami Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been inconsistent at best this season on the 1.5-mile tracks. In six starts Elliott has just two Top-10 finishes and a subpar 17.2 average finish on the cookie cutter ovals.

Chase Briscoe – The struggle bus and Briscoe have been close acquaintances this season. The young Stewart Haas Racing driver has just seven Top 10's in 2023 and comes to Miami ranked a distant 30th in the driver standings. Briscoe has had tremendous struggles on the intermediate ovals. Just one of his eight starts this season have netted a Top-10 finish and the average finish checks in around 23.5. He's coming off a disappointing 33rd-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday and stumbling into Homestead. Briscoe's two prior Cup Series starts at Homestead have yielded 18th- and 36th-place finishes the last two seasons.    

Harrison Burton – There's been very little to get excited for this season with Burton and the No. 21 Ford team. The young driver has struggled in his second full-time Cup campaign. Burton is currently 31st in the driver standings and his average finish for the season (24.6) is nearly two spots worse than his rookie campaign of 2022. The 1.5-mile tracks have been stingy to this driver and team. Burton has managed no Top-10 and just three Top-20 finishes on the eight intermediate ovals of this season. The 26.4 average finish is very disappointing. Burton has just one Cup Series start at Homestead-Miami Speedway and it was a 20th-place finish in this event one year ago. We'd consider that the ceiling this weekend for the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing team.      

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs' struggles with cookie cutter ovals continued this past Sunday with his disappointing 34th-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has just one Top 10 in eight starts this season on similar sized ovals. The 25.8 average finish across that span is a big warning sign heading into Sunday's 4EVER 400. Gibbs qualified well in his only prior Cup start at Homestead (sixth-place last season) but he labored to an unimpressive 22nd-place finish one year ago. Given this rookie driver's struggles in intermediate oval racing and lack of experience at NASCAR's top level at Homestead-Miami Speedway, we cannot recommend a fantasy racing start for Gibbs this week.