Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Macau
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Macau card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Macau Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 145-59-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Perez
Fanduel Captain: Perez/Yadong
Yadong Song (22-9-1) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-9-1 (9 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Fast, explosive striker with strong boxing and athleticism
- Continues to improve and has developed into a very complete bantamweight
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-6-1 (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Dangerous veteran with knockout power and submission ability
- Still explosive, but durability and consistency have started to decline
DFS Perspective:
At this point in their careers, Song is likely the better fighter everywhere. Figueiredo is still dangerous and always capable of creating big moments, but it feels like his time as a top-ranked contender is starting to fade. If Song fights composed and pushes pace, he should be able to control the fight and pull away over time. Song profiles as the preferred side with solid upside.
UFC Macau Pick: Song
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Mingyang Zhang (19-7-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (17-6-1)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-7 (13 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Aggressive finisher with dangerous power and forward pressure
- Most effective when overwhelming opponents early with offense
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6-1 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Powerful veteran with strong physicality and UFC experience
- Dangerous in exchanges and capable of capitalizing on mistakes
DFS Perspective:
Zhang took a considerable step up in competition last time out and was put to sleep. Menifield is also better than anyone Zhang has beaten so far. Until Zhang proves he can get past this level of competition, it's difficult to confidently back him in matchups like this. Menifield profiles as the preferred side with experience and finishing upside.
UFC Macau Pick: Menifield
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Sergei Pavlovich (20-3-0) v. Tallison Teixeira (9-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 84" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20-3 (15 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-handed striker with elite first-round finishing ability
- Dangerous when able to pressure forward and force exchanges early
- Height: 6'7" – Reach: 83" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive heavyweight with strong early knockout power
- Gas tank falls off heavily if unable to secure an early finish
DFS Perspective:
Teixeira feels very first-round or bust in this matchup. If he cannot get Pavlovich out of there early, the fight likely starts to swing quickly. This feels like a good opportunity for Pavlovich to regain some confidence and remind people of his power. Pavlovich profiles as the preferred side with strong knockout upside.
UFC Macau Pick: Pavlovich
Kai Asakura (21-6-0) v. Cameron Smotherman (12-6-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-6 (13 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Fast, explosive striker with strong finishing instincts
- Dangerous in open exchanges and capable of ending fights quickly
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-6 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive fighter who likes to pressure and force exchanges
- Can be hittable defensively against sharper strikers
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a strong spot for Asakura. His speed, timing, and overall striking should give Smotherman problems throughout the fight. If Asakura is able to force exchanges early, he can create big moments and potentially find a finish. Asakura profiles as a strong play with knockout upside.
UFC Macau Pick: Asakura
Jake Matthews (22-8-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-7-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-8 (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Well-rounded veteran with improving wrestling and striking
- Uses takedown threats effectively to open up his offense on the feet
- Height: 60" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-7 (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Durable fighter with solid grappling and submission ability
- Most dangerous when creating scrambles and forcing messy exchanges
DFS Perspective:
Matthews looks like the better fighter almost everywhere in this matchup. His wrestling should allow him to dictate the pace and create openings for his striking throughout the fight. If he mixes his game together effectively, he should be able to control long stretches and pull away on the scorecards. Matthews profiles as the clear preferred side.
UFC Macau Pick: Matthews
Alex Perez (26-10-0) v. Su Mudaerji (19-7-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-10 (7 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Veteran flyweight with strong wrestling and scrambling ability
- Most effective when mixing pressure with takedowns and control
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19-7 (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long striker with dangerous power for the division
- Thrives at range and can create big moments on the feet
DFS Perspective:
This matchup likely comes down to whether Perez can consistently secure takedowns. If he's able to close distance and force grappling exchanges, he can control large portions of the fight. However, Mudaerji's length and striking remain very dangerous if this stays standing. Competitive matchup with clear paths on both sides.
UFC Macau Pick: Perez
Luis Felipe Dias (16-5-0) v. Yi Sak Lee (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-5 (7 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with strong control and submission ability
- Most effective when forcing fights to the mat and dictating position
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with solid power and finishing instincts
- Prefers to keep fights standing and work at range
DFS Perspective:
Dias' ground game will likely be the deciding factor in this matchup. If he's able to secure takedowns consistently, he should be able to control the pace and neutralize Lee's striking. Lee is dangerous on the feet, but Dias profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling path.
UFC Macau Pick: Dias
Meng Ding (35-9-0) v. Jose Henrique (8-1-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 35-9 (28 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Veteran striker with heavy hands and strong finishing ability
- Dangerous whenever he can force exchanges on the feet
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Well-rounded prospect with balanced striking and grappling
- Still developing but has shown composure in competitive fights
DFS Perspective:
This is one of the tougher fights on the card to get a read on and it could realistically go either way. Henrique looks like the more complete fighter overall, but Ding's power gives him a real chance to swing the fight at any moment. In a close matchup like this, I'll lean Ding slightly due to the danger in his hands.
UFC Macau Pick: Ding
Aori Qileng (26-12-0) v. Cody Haddon (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-12 (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive striker who likes to pressure and force exchanges
- Durable and willing to turn fights into brawls
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-1 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with solid pace and grappling ability
- Most effective when mixing striking with takedowns and control
DFS Perspective:
This should be a fun fight stylistically. Qileng will look to pressure and create chaos on the feet, while Haddon likely has the more balanced overall game. If Haddon is able to mix in grappling and avoid extended brawls, he should be able to control the fight. Haddon profiles as the preferred side with multiple paths to win.
UFC Macau Pick: Haddon
Rei Tsuruya (10-1-0) v. Luis Gurule (11-3-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Relentless grappler with strong takedowns and control
- Excels at dictating pace and wearing opponents down on the mat
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive striker with solid power and willingness to engage
- Dangerous early when he can force striking exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This matchup comes down to whether Gurule can keep the fight standing. Tsuruya's wrestling and control should allow him to dictate where this fight takes place for long stretches. Gurule has power and can create moments if he keeps distance, but Tsuruya profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Macau Pick: Tsuruya
Angela Hill (18-16-0) v. Jingnan Xiong (19-2-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-16 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Veteran striker with strong volume and cardio
- Relies on pace and activity to win rounds over time
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 19-2 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful and technical striker with excellent pressure
- Excels in prolonged striking exchanges and carries real finishing ability
DFS Perspective:
Hill will bring her usual pace and volume, but this feels like a very difficult matchup for her stylistically. Xiong is the cleaner and more dangerous striker, and she should be able to create the bigger moments throughout the fight. If Xiong pushes forward and forces exchanges, she can take over quickly. Xiong profiles as the clear preferred side with strong upside.
UFC Macau Pick: Xiong
Kangjie Zhu (21-4-0) v. Rodrigo Vera (21-1-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-4 (12 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with solid finishing ability and pressure
- Most effective when keeping fights standing and forcing exchanges
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-1-1 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- High-level grappler with dominant control and submission ability
- Clearly most dangerous when dictating fights on the mat
DFS Perspective:
Vera is light years ahead on the mat in this matchup and should be able to dominate if he gets this fight to the ground. Zhu is dangerous on the feet, but Vera's grappling advantage is massive and should allow him to control the pace throughout. Vera profiles as one of the stronger grappling plays on the slate.
UFC Macau Pick:
Loma Lookboonmee (10-4-0) v. Jaqueline Amorim (10-2-0)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-4 (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Technical striker with strong clinch work and solid volume
- Most effective when keeping fights standing and controlling range
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Elite grappler with dangerous submission ability and strong control
- Most effective when forcing takedowns and dominating on the mat
DFS Perspective:
This matchup likely comes down to whether Amorim can consistently secure takedowns. If she gets this fight to the mat, she should have a massive advantage and could dominate quickly. Loma's striking is sharp enough to create problems standing, but Amorim profiles as the preferred side with a strong grappling-based scoring path.
UFC Macau Pick: Amorim
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
