Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 327
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 327 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Vegas 115 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 98-32-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Radtke
Fanduel Captain: Radtke/Murzakanov
Jiri Prochazka (32-5-1) v. Carlos Ulberg (13-1-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 32-5-1 (28 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Wild and unorthodox striker with constant pressure and finishing instincts
- Relies on chaos and durability, but can be hit clean in exchanges
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13-1 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Technical striker with strong fundamentals and clean kickboxing
- Controls distance well and fights composed, picking shots rather than brawling
DFS Perspective:
Ulberg is a slight dog here, but I really like him in this matchup. His presence in the ring reminds me of Alex Pereira, who has already beaten Prochazka twice. If Ulberg keeps this technical and avoids the chaos, he should be able to find openings against Jiri's style. Ulberg profiles as a strong underdog play with knockout upside.
UFC 327 Pick: Ulberg
Like this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer to see what combinations you can create with this salary relief.
Azamat Murzakanov (16-0-0) v. Paulo Costa (15-4-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 16-0 (12 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Explosive power striker with fast hands and the ability to close distance quickly
- Extremely dangerous early and has shown the ability to overwhelm opponents
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-4 (11 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Aggressive pressure fighter with power and durability
- Always live in fights with his ability to push pace and create chaos
DFS Perspective:
Costa will always be live in a matchup like this, but Murzakanov is just too powerful and quick. If he's able to close distance and land clean, he can overwhelm Costa and create big moments. I don't see the train stopping here. Murzakanov profiles as a strong play with knockout upside.
UFC 327 Pick: Murzakanov
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0) v. Josh Hokit (8-0-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-5 (13 KO/TKO)
- Elite wrestler with strong top control and ground-and-pound
- Has shown some decline recently and has struggled to look sharp in recent fights
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Physical and durable with strong tenacity and willingness to push pace
- Still developing, but brings pressure and can compete across multiple areas
DFS Perspective:
I like Hokit's tenacity in this matchup. Blaydes feels like he's on the back 9 and just hasn't looked great in his last few fights. He's always live if he can get top control, but outside of that, Hokit could be better in a lot of areas. Hokit profiles as a solid underdog play in a fight in which both guys have a path to victory.
UFC 327 Pick: Hokit
Dominick Reyes (15-5-0) v. Johnny Walker (22-9-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13-4 (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Technical striker with power and composure in exchanges
- More measured approach, looks to capitalize on openings rather than create chaos
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 82" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-8 (17 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Explosive and unpredictable with massive finishing ability
- Defensive lapses and durability issues have been a concern
DFS Perspective:
This is likely one of the most rostered fights on the card, as someone is likely to go down early. I like Reyes' composure to stand in there and find the shot against Walker's questionable chin. Walker is always dangerous, but Reyes profiles as the preferred side in a high-upside finish spot.
UFC 327 Pick: Reyes
Cub Swanson (30-14-0) v. Nate Landwehr (18-7-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 29-14 (13 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Veteran striker with high fight IQ and experience in scrappy fights
- Still capable of competing with durability and composure deep into fights
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-5 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- High-pressure fighter who thrives in chaotic, high-paced fights
- Relies on toughness and volume to overwhelm opponents
DFS Perspective:
This is going to be a scrappy fight. Landwehr will bring pressure, but Swanson's experience and composure could allow him to edge this out. He might just find another win in his 40s. It's not the cleanest DFS spot, but both guys can score in a high-action fight.
UFC 327 Pick: Swanson
Patricio Pitull (37-8-0) v. Aaron Pico (13-5-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 36-7 (12 KO/TKO, 12 submissions)
- Veteran with well-rounded skills and finishing ability
- Experience is elite, but showing signs of slowing down
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive athlete with high-level wrestling and improving striking
- Dangerous early with the ability to overwhelm opponents
DFS Perspective:
This is a good spot for Pico to pick up his first UFC win against an aging Pitbull. Pico should have the edge in athleticism and speed, and if he pushes the pace early, he can create big moments. Pitbull is always dangerous, but Pico profiles as the preferred side with upside.
UFC 327 Pick: Pico
Kevin Holland (28-15-0) v. Randy Brown (20-7-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28-15 (13 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Long, rangy striker with solid submission ability
- Tends to fight at his own pace and can be low volume in slower matchups
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-7 (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Technical striker who prefers to pick shots and manage distance
- Most effective in controlled fights where he can avoid chaos
DFS Perspective:
I do not expect a high DFS score from this fight. Both guys are likely to pick their shots and keep this at range, which could lead to a slower-paced decision. It's not a great DFS target, and there's limited upside here.
UFC 327 Pick: Holland
Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 25-4 (8 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Elite wrestler with relentless takedown pressure and strong control
- Wins fights through pace, control, and grinding opponents down
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Dangerous striker with power and confidence on the feet
- Most effective in open exchanges where he can create damage
DFS Perspective:
I expect Gamrot to find his typical success with takedowns and control his way to a decision. If he's able to implement that game plan, he should rack up points through control time. However, if he's unable to secure takedowns, Ribovics will have a field day on the feet. Gamrot is the preferred side, but there is real risk if this stays standing.
UFC 327 Pick: Gamrot
Tatiana Suarez (11-1-0) v. Lupita Godinez (14-5-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-1 (2 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Elite wrestler with dominant top control and submission ability
- Relentless with takedowns and excels at controlling entire rounds
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-5 (3 submissions)
- Tough and well-rounded with solid wrestling of her own
- Prefers high pace, but can struggle against stronger control grapplers
DFS Perspective:
I do not think Godinez will be able to avoid the takedowns and control of Suarez long enough to win rounds here. Suarez's path is very clear: get this to the mat and dominate positions. If she's able to do that consistently, she should control this fight from start to finish. Suarez profiles as a strong play with dominant control upside.
UFC 327 Pick: Suarez
MarQuel Mederos (11-1-0) v. Chris Padilla (17-6-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-1 (6 KO/TKO)
- Powerful striker with finishing ability and confidence on the feet
- Most dangerous when he can keep fights standing and create big moments
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Well-rounded with a grappling base and ability to mix in takedowns
- Can be durable, but tends to rely on grinding fights out
DFS Perspective:
Mederos should have the advantage on the feet and the ability to create the bigger moments in this fight. Padilla's path is to mix in grappling and slow things down, but if he can't consistently do that, he could get outworked. Mederos profiles as the preferred side with upside if he keeps this standing.
UFC 327 Pick: Mederos
Kelvin Gastelum (20-10-0) v. Vicente Luque (23-12-1)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20-10 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Durable boxer with strong volume and ability to pressure opponents
- Iron chin allows him to stay in fights and build output over time
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-12-1 (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with power and submission ability
- Thrives in exchanges and always carries knockout or submission threat
DFS Perspective:
I prefer Gastelum here due to his volume upside and durability. His ability to eat shots and keep pushing pace could allow him to outwork Luque over three rounds. Luque is always live with his finishing ability, but Gastelum profiles as the preferred side with a better path through volume and toughness.
UFC 327 Pick: Gastelum
Charles Radtke (11-5-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-4-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-5 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive striker who likes to push pace and pressure opponents
- Most effective when he can get in his opponent's face and create early moments
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded but has struggled recently against higher-level competition
- Currently on a three-fight losing streak and looking to regain form
DFS Perspective:
Prado is riding a three-fight losing streak and it does not get any easier here. I expect Radtke to come in hot, apply pressure, and outstrike Prado early. If he's able to dictate the pace, he should be able to create the better moments. Radtke profiles as the preferred side with upside.
UFC 327 Pick: Radtke
The latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event are on RotoWire, plus users can compare markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
