While we may have seen better Pay-Per-Views overall, UFC 308 still features an intriguing 13-fight slate, including one of the best fights that can be made in the sport as its main event. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a couple of lopsided lines and two knockout artists classed as slight underdogs. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Lerone Murphy ($8,900)
Murphy is one of the most complete featherweight prospects we have seen in some time, allowing him to excel against wrestlers, strikers, and submission grapplers. He is essentially a better version of Dan Ige, a fighter with slick boxing who can wrestle and grapple when the situation calls for it. Expect Murphy to capitalize in the striking and be a step ahead in exchanges if this fight hits the ground.
Myktybek Orolbai ($9,100)
Mateusz Rebecki ran through his early opponents with his power and pressure but took a life-changing beating from the first fighter who could weather the storm and out-grapple him in Carlos Diego Ferreira. Orolbai may not have the athleticism of the Brazilian, but hits plenty hard and should be able to outscramble Rabecki on the mat. This will lead to the musclebound Polish fighter gassing once again, allowing Orolbai to take the fight over completely.
Rinat Fakhretdinov ($8,900)
Fakhretdinov's windmill approach when he is forced to stand at range for any length of time puts an element of risk into his matchup against Muay Thai specialist Carlos Leal, but the Brazilian stands so upright in the pocket it's difficult to imagine that the "Gladiator" won't be able to regularly find clinch positions. While he is a veteran of the sport, there aren't many grapplers as committed as Rinat on Leal's resume, which makes it hard to pick him in a spot like this.
Bruno Silva ($7,900)
Ismail Naurdiev will be thought of as the superior grappler in this matchup, but I will stop short of saying he will be dominated on the ground, as Naurdiev put up almost no offense whatsoever in a 2019 loss to Chance Rencountre, which saw him controlled for over 11 minutes. Silva has shown himself to be a capable wrestler and should be miles ahead while in striking range, as Naurdiev frequently leaves himself open to be hit. Neither man has set the MMA world on fire of late, but Silva was only taken down once by an incredibly strong grappler in Chris Weidman, which makes me think he should be prepared for this matchup.
Raffael Cerqueira ($8,200)
At last check, the fight between Cerqueira and Ibo Aslan is (-600) to finish inside the distance, making it imperative to choose a side in DFS. While there may not be much daylight between the two, Aslan stands incredibly flatfooted in the pocket while also being at an athleticism and grappling disadvantage. Both men swing hard, which suggests that players should have some exposure on either side, but Cerqueira should have the depth of game and physical gifts to get the job done.
Brunno Ferreira ($7,800)
We finally saw Abus Magomedov employ a grappling-heavy style to get the win over Warlley Alves, but even that was more challenging than it likely should have been, with the Russian fighter looking noticeably tired in Round 3 and only recording six more significant strikes than his opponent. Ferreira is not a pure grappler but can scramble well on the ground and may even look for his own takedowns to work from top position. While Abus's skill set could potentially play well, I don't see him being able to avoid the power of "The Hulk" for 15 minutes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Farid Basharat UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes, Khamzat Chimaev OVER 51.5 Significant Strikes, and Shara Magomedov OVER 82.5 Significant Strikes
Basharat would do well to copy the blueprint from Victor Hugo's last opponent, who pushed him up against the cage and looked for takedowns from the opening bell. The Bashharat brothers like mixing a healthy dose of striking with their grappling, but it's difficult to imagine Farid will want to spend too much time at range with such a dangerous striker.
It honestly feels as though the linemakers forgot the bout between Chimaev and Robert Whittaker will be decided over five rounds. "Borz" landed 38 strikes over just three rounds against Kamaru Usman, and while he was grounded and eventually finished by Dricus Du Plessis, Whittaker has historically been very difficult to take to the ground. This leads me to believe "The Reaper" will take this fight into deep waters, which has the potential to easily clear this total.
Shara and Armen Petrosyan seem destined to have a 15-minute kickboxing match despite Petroysan's ability to grapple if he has to. The issue here is that both men are incredibly hittable and hard to put away, which should dictate a lot of strikes being exchanged in the center of the cage.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Ilia Topuria OVER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Kennedy Nzechukwu OVER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Much has been made about Topuria's finishing abilities heading into his bout with Max Holloway. The fact remains, however, that the next time "Blessed" loses by KO/TKO will be his first time in 33 professional fights. He also possesses elite takedown defense (84 percent). This means we win twice, as we get treated to an absolute war which should easily go beyond the early stages of the third round.
Heavyweights are known for their ability to end fights early, but not all heavyweight fights are created equal. Nzechukwu is a slow starter, having seen a second round in five of his last six fights. We should also note that Chris Barnett has yet to have a UFC fight end in the first frame in four appearances. Given this, it's difficult to understand the line here, as neither man has shown themselves to be particularly knockout-prone in their respective careers.
Bets to Consider
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic Fight Goes to Decision (-155)
At the risk of having to eat my words later on, any reasonable line feels like a gift here, as two durable, slow-paced kickboxers look set to strike with each other. While both men have been involved in fights that finished recently, their opponents in these matchups were incredibly active strikers. That will not be the case here, with both men looking to meticulously find their shots over three rounds.
Geoff Neal Wins via Decision (+105)
As a fan of this sport for more than a decade, I am struggling to remember a single fight won by Rafael dos Anjos in which he could not outgrapple his opponent. Meanwhile, Neal's defensive grappling has stood up to some of the best and most persistent wrestlers in the sport, as he notched a decisive victory over Belal Muhammad, and gave Shavkat Rakhmonov his toughest fight to date. "RDA" has never lacked heart, but the former lightweight champion will simply be overmatched in this one, adding to his less-than-stellar resume at 170 pounds.
