Trea Turner

Turner was playing in the first year of a new huge deal in a new city, so history tells us there would be some bumps in the road for the talented superstar. However, even his harshest critic would not have predicted Turner having a .235/.290/.368 line as last as Aug. 3 and hitting in the eighth spot of the lineup. Philly fans, as they are well-known for, cheered him into a hot streak? Turner got hot in a well-timed series against the lowly Royals in early August and hit .337/.389/.668 the rest of the season with 16 homers, 42 runs and 42 RBIs helping push his final numbers close to what he did in 2022. The batting average hole he dug for himself was too much to climb out of, and the lineup demotion cut into his RBIs, but the homers were up while the steals and runs held true. One would have to hope the worst of things is behind Turner and 2024 could be a MVP-type seasons for him if he can play at his late pace. That elusive 30-30 season should happen in 2024.

Turner finished the season as the sixth best fantasy player in standard formats with another strong season as a five-category contributor. The drop in batting average was offset by a surprising surge in RBI thanks to him hitting leadoff less frequently, but, more importantly, he avoided the injured list for just the second time in the past five full seasons. His speed buys him hits others cannot afford, as his 33 infield hits helped prop up his average as he struggled with breaking balls (.247 average) throughout the season. Even as he approaches 30, he retains his elite speed, and back-to-back full big-volume seasons ease the health concerns that followed him in previous years. It is scary to think what Turner could accomplish in steals under the new rules, as he was already one of the best thieves by success rate in the league. He landed in Philadelphia in free agency, which is close to a neutral move when factoring in the ballparks and lineups of the Phillies and Dodgers (where righty power played way up, per Statcast).

The only flaw to Turner's 2021 season was that he led off in 72 games thereby limiting his RBI to just 77. He was the only hitter with at least 25 homers, 25 steals and a batting average over .300, and he was multi-positional eligible for a good chunk of the year to boot (2B, SS). While he's dealt with a few injuries over the years (just a COVID-IL trip in 2021), his production has been steady. The 28 homers were a career high, while his 32 steals were a career low over a full season. Moving forward, the plate discipline (career 18 K%) and power (ISO over .200 each of the last three seasons) show no signs of degrading. Additionally, he could see more counting stats over a full season with the Dodgers. The only worry is that his steal total will not stay over 30 coming off career-worst marks in his sprint speed (30.7 f/s) and time-to-first (4.13 sec).

Don't overthink this; Turner is an easy first-rounder in virtually all rotisserie formats. The speedster was a top performer during the shortened 2020 season, finishing behind only Jose Abreu and Fernando Tatis among hitters in roto leagues. He shaved six percentage points off his strikeout rate (to 13.9%) while besting his previous career high in ISO by 28 points. Most of his damage was done against fastballs, with 23 of his 31 extra-base hits coming off heaters. Statcast suggests he overachieved on breaking pitches, but even so Turner was in the 96th percentile in xBA. While his success rate on the bases took a hit, Turner's sprint speed remained in the 99th percentile, so it's not like he's lost a step already at age 27. Turner's past injury history looms, but Turner in theory provides a five-category foundation, and by easing the speed burden early, opens up your choices with subsequent draft picks.

Turner had 171 fewer plate appearances in 2019 than he had in 2018, and met or nearly exceeded his statistics across the board. He missed time early in the season when the Nationals were struggling, and returned to help carry them all the way to a World Series victory. Tim Locastro is the only player in baseball with a higher sprint speed than Turner, and Turner does not hesitate to use his speed on the bases under the aggressive style of Davey Martinez. There is absolutely no doubt Turner's skills and abilities are worth $35-plus in auctions and a first-round pick in straight drafts, but the fact that he has had just one season in which he avoided the injury bug is what holds many back from drafting him. There are safer players out there to acquire for your team, but there are precious few that offer the production that Turner is capable of when he's healthy. He could be a top-five player in a full season.

Those passing on Turner fearing he was an injury risk paid the price last season. He was one of only seven players to appear in 162 games on the way to leading the Senior Circuit with 740 PA. He also paced the NL in pilfers with 43, his second straight season with at least 40. Turner's fantasy allure is steals without sacrificing power -- he set a career high with 19 long balls. He's established a high floor; the question is whether he's worthy of a top-10 pick. Keeping in mind Turner didn't miss a game last season, he finished the season just outside the top-10 overall. As such, he'd need to improve on last season's numbers, which will be a chore considering the huge volume of at-bats. The pathway would be a higher batting average, as last season's .314 BABIP was below his career mark. Still, it's a matter of philosophy and roster construction. Steals are one category, and other first rounders contribute elite production in multiple categories.

Can we please stop the "Turner doesn't have the track record to be a first-rounder" nonsense? If you want to argue injury-risk, OK, you have a point... maybe. However, there's no denying that Turner's skills are elite. He deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon with respect to steals, while hitting well more than twice as many homers as them, combined. Double-digit homers with at least 50 steals is first-round material, especially since his contact rate and groundball proclivity portend a fantasy-friendly batting average. That brings us to health. In 2015, his first full season as a professional, Turner played 142 games, most at Double- and Triple-A before appearing in 27 with the Nationals. In 2016, he played 156 contests, split between Triple-A and the majors. If you want to avoid a first-round talent because he was hit by a pitch in late June, costing him about two months, that's your prerogative.

Turner didn't have anything more to prove in the minors, but the Nationals sent him back to Syracuse anyway so he could hit .302/.370/.471 in 331 at-bats with 25 steals before finally getting a long-overdue promotion. If he was frustrated by his slow progress up the ladder, he took it out on opposing pitchers. While his .342 batting average was the product of an unsustainable .391 BABIP, his contact rates and batting averages have always been excellent, and 33 steals in 73 big league games isn't out of line with his minor league theatrics on the basepaths. The real surprise was the power he flashed at the highest level. After hitting just 19 home runs in 268 minor league games, Turner slugged 13 in 73 games with Washington. If that power proves to be even partially sustainable (and his 16.7 percent HR/FB rate, while high, wasn't outrageous), the Nats suddenly find themselves with a 23-year-old five-category shortstop, and a future pillar of the franchise.

Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Steven Souza to the Rays, Turner immediately became the Nationals' shortstop of the future, a future that might begin as soon as 2016 with Ian Desmond leaving in free agency. The 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Turner's plus-plus wheels are his major selling point, but his line drive swing produces excellent contact and his plate discipline should allow him to stick as a leadoff hitter. The Nats still have Danny Espinosa as a stop-gap at shortstop, so they don't need to rush Turner, but with Denard Span also on his way out the door they have a need at the top of the batting order as well as at shortstop that Turner could fill admirably if he reaches his full potential. An impressive showing in spring training could land him in the Opening Day starting lineup, but even if the team decides to delay his arbitration clock, his stay at Triple-A this year should be a brief one.

A former college teammate of highly coveted lefty Carlos Rodon, Turner closed out a three-year career at North Carolina State with a .342/.435/.507 line and 113 stolen bases in 127 attempts over 173 games despite an ankle injury that limited his impact as a basestealer during his sophomore campaign. Speed is easily Turner's best tool and he's an 80-grade runner, while his bat and plate discipline should be good enough for him to develop into a leadoff hitter at the big league level down the road. Defensively, Turner shifted to shortstop after the 2013 season for the Wolfpack, and it's believed that he has the footwork necessary to stick at short as he advances, and the arm strength necessary to handle third base if it's decided he's a better fit there. Upon signing, Turner went 23-for-27 as a basestealer at short-season Eugene and Low-A Fort Wayne, while toting an impressive .369/.447/.529 line over 46 contests at the latter stop. Turner was named as the player to be named later in the Will Myers trade, but won't join the Nationals until next June due to a technicality. His 2015 status may be murky as a result, but he's seen as a potential impact player when he finally starts playing for his new organization.