Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Tyson Pedro ($9,500)
I typically try to avoid paying top dollar if at all possible, but I'm willing to make an exception here. Yes, Pedro is the highest priced fighter on a card scheduled to have 13 bouts. Yes, he has one win dating back to February 2018. And yes, he missed more than four years worth of action from that previously-mentioned February 2018 to April 2022. All that said, he's facing an opponent in Harry Hunsucker who is 0-3 in the UFC (including his fight on the Contender Series) with three knockout losses. If there is ever a time to pay up, this is it.
Aori Qileng ($8,500)
Qileng dropped a pair of unanimous decisions to begin his UFC run before knocking out Cameron Else this past April. That fight against Else came at bantamweight, where he is far better suited to compete, while his losses to Jeff Molina and Cody Durden came at flyweight. I don't like many underdogs on this card, making it difficult to find value plays, but Qileng seems reasonably priced at $8500.
Don't forget to try out these plays on the RotoWire DraftKings MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer. Also, check out Jon's full DraftKings UFC 278 Preview.
Plays to Consider on Price Picks
Miranda Maverick OVER 2.0 takedowns, Kamaru Usman UNDER 3.5 takedowns, Paulo Costa OVER 45.5 significant strikes, AJ Fletcher UNDER 45.5 significant strikes
Maverick has been inconsistent in her five UFC bouts, posting just a 3-2 record, but she's very strong, an excellent wrestler and facing a below-average opponent here in Shanna Young. Young has lost three of her four UFC fights and has shown very little technical skill thus far. Young has also defended the takedown at a poor 60-percent clip to date. I like Maverick's chances of getting her to the mat three times.
Usman is a top-three pound-for-pound fighter in the game today. He's a hefty favorite over Leon Edwards, and rightfully so, but he's picked up more than four takedowns just twice in his past eight fights. He averages exactly three takedowns per 15 minutes, but that number is boosted by a fight against Rafael dos Anjos in November 2018 in which he landed a dozen takedowns. I could see Usman connecting with a couple shots, but predicting four is far too many.
This Costa play makes me nervous because I'm worried about the durability of his opponent, Luke Rockhold. Rockhold hasn't fought since July 2019, and his durability was a major concern prior to the hiatus, with knockout losses in three of his past four fights. Costa should cruise past this number with ease if Rockhold can last 10 minutes, but that's not guaranteed.
Fletcher has had two fights in the UFC, posting a 1-1 mark. He's proven to be a pure wrestler, averaging 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, while also connecting on just 2.53 significant strikes per minute. I expect a wrestling-oriented attack and lots of control time, but Ange Loosa is no pushover, so there's no guarantee he will be in control throughout the bout.
Bets to Consider
Jose Aldo to win outright (+105)
Aldo and Merab Dvalishvili is the fight I am looking forward to most on the entire card. Merab is probably the best wrestler in the bantamweight division, averaging a ridiculous 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. That said, Aldo's takedown defense is legendary. He's up at 90 percent, and he's going to have a massive edge over Merab as long as this fight remains upright. That's enough for me to roll the dice on Aldo as an underdog, as he has a clear path to victory.
Miranda Maverick (-560), Alexandr Romanov (-350), and Jared Gordon (-265) to win outright parlay (+108)
Being able to turn these three fighters into a parlay at plus money seems like quite the feat. I touched on Maverick above, I think she overwhelms Young with her wrestling and pace. Romanov has a tough test in Marcin Tybura, but he enters with a clear edge in terms of physical skill, plus Tybura has never really defeated anyone of note. Gordon is the trickiest play of the three. He had a three-fight winning streak in his most recent bout against Grant Dawson this past April, but Dawson is really good, and his last loss prior to that came against Charles Oliveira. I think he can get past Leonardo Santos.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 278 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire Sports Betting section.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Wu Yanan UNDER 77.5 total strikes
This is simply a case of playing the odds. Wu has had five past UFC bouts, all against below-average competition (Mayra Bueno Silva, Joselyne Edwards, Mizuki Inoue, Lauren Mueller, Gina Mazany). The Mizuki fight was the only one in which she cracked this number. I might be willing to play the over if it was around 65.5, but over 77.5 seems like too much.
