This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, August 20 for UFC 278 with one title on the line. In the main event, Kamaru Usman is set to defend his welterweight championship as he rematches Leon Edwards.
Below I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a three-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Lucie Pudilova (13-7) vs. Wu Yanan (13-5)
Lucie Pudilova is back in the UFC after having six fights in a Czech-based promotion and going 5-1. In the UFC, she went 2-5 including losing four straight -- but thoses losses were to the likes of Irene Aldana, Liz Carmouche and Antonina Shevchenko, with all three being ranked between No. 5 and 15 at the time.
Wu Yanan, meanwhile, has struggled of late, as she's 1-4 in the UFC and on a three-fight losing skid. She has dropped decisions to Mizuki Inoue, Joselyne Edwards and Mayra Bueno Silva, and she hasn't impressed me much in the UFC.
Wu's striking defense leaves a lot to be desired, as she gets hit too much, while Pudilova is a solid striker and should be able to piece up Wu to earn a decision. Neither fighter has much of a threat on the ground, so I expect it to be a kickboxing fight with Pudilova throwing more volume.
UFC 278 Best Bet: Lucie Pudilova (-130)
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Jose Aldo (31-7) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (14-4)
On the main card is a pivotal bantamweight bout between Jose Aldo and Merab Dvalishvili, and I like Aldo as an underdog to get the win.
Dvalishvili is a dominant wrestler, but his striking is far behind his wrestling, along with his striking defense. In the Moraes fight, he was getting picked apart and rocked until Moraes gassed, and Aldo could very well do the same without gassing, as he has the cardio to go three hard rounds.
Aldo has a 90 percent takedown defense, and I do believe he will be able to keep the fight on the feet. If he does that, his striking will be too much for Dvalishvili.
UFC 278 Best Bet: Jose Aldo (+110)
Weight Class: Women's flyweight
Miranda Maverick (10-4) vs. Shanna Young (8-4)
Miranda Maverick has a very odd fight, as she is rematching Shanna Young. I expect Maverick to end this fight early.
Maverick and Young fought back in 2019 in a one-night Invicta FC tournament, and Maverick got a submission win in just 2:35. Since then, I actually think Maverick has gotten a lot better, as she is a great grappler with some commendable striking. Young, meanwhile, has struggled against grapplers, as Gina Mazany had a ton of success against her using her wrestling before gassing.
I expect Maverick to take Young down early and get an early submission or ground-and-pound TKO win. Yet, a good way to attack this fight is the under 2.5 rounds, as it's plus-money and I have a hard time seeing this go outside the first round.
UFC 278 Best Bet: Maverick-Young under 2.5 rounds (+105)
Weight Classes: Welterweight, heavyweight & featherweight
Kamaru Usman (20-1) vs. Leon Edwards (19-3)
Alexandr Romanov (16-0) vs. Marcin Tybura (22-7)
Sean Woodson (9-1) vs. Luis Saldana (16-7)
UFC 278 sees a ton of heavy favorites, which is why I'm going with a three-leg parlay for plus-money.
In the first leg, I like Sean Woodson to beat Luis Saldana. Woodson will have a massive reach advantage, as he will be able to piece up Saldana, who could be 0-3 in the UFC (he won two controversial decisions). Woodson is too good of a striker for Saldana and will either get a TKO win or just piece him up for a decision.
In the second leg, I'm backing Alexandr Romanov to beat Marcin Tybura. Romanov looks like the real deal, and he will use his wrestling to control Tybura and eventually get a ground-and-pound TKO. Romanov and Tybura have very similar styles, but Romanov is the better grappler and physically stronger man, which is why I like Romanov in this style matchup.
Finally, I'm backing Kamaru Usman to defend his belt and defeat Leon Edwards. Usman has a wrestling advantage, and although he has been striking lately, I do expect him to go back to his wrestling roots and take Edwards down and win the rounds that way. However, he can also strike with Edwards, as his striking has gotten good enough to threaten Edwards on the feet. Still, being able to mix in the wrestling will be the difference.
UFC 278 Best Bet: Woodson, Romanov & Usman parlay (+113)
UFC 278 Best Bets:
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 278 event:
- Lucie Pudilova (-130)
- Jose Aldo (+110)
- Miranda Maverick-Shanna Young under 2.5 rounds (+105)
- Woodson, Romanov, and Usman parlay (+113)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
