This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 83 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Tatsuro Taira (14-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (9-2-0)
Tatsuro Taira - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Carlos Hernandez - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Taira should be leagues ahead of Hernandez anywhere the fight goes, particularly on the feet. I would not expect Taira's undefeated streak to end here. He has scored well in all of his wins, making him a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Taira
Stephanie Egger (8-4-0) v. Luana Santos (6-1-0)
Stephanie Egger - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Luana Santos - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Santos made quick work in her UFC debut, recording a first-round knockout. Though Egger presents a slightly different challenge and is a better fighter than Santos's first opponent, I expect Santos's full skill set to be on display and to make quick work again in this one. She could be one of the best plays on the slate if she finishes the fight in the first round again.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Santos
Steve Garcia (14-5-0) v. Melquizael Costa (20-6-0)
Steve Garcia - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak and is now 3-2 in the UFC promotion. All three wins are by knockout, and he is as dangerous as it gets on the feet. Costa earned his first UFC win last time out, winning unanimously after a solid 15 minutes. Each fighter has a path to victory. Costa's best bet is to get this to the mat, as striking with Garcia likely wouldn't end well for him. I will lean on Garcia's experience and takedown defense to get this win. This fight makes an excellent choice for GPP lineups.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Garcia
Hyun Sung Park (8-0-0) v. Shannon Ross (13-8-0)
Hyun Sung Park - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Shannon Ross - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Ross has not shown anything worth a damn in the UFC or his Contender Series fight. His two fights in the UFC ended with him being knocked out in under a minute. Park is a tenacious, undefeated fighter, and I expect him to record another early finish here. Park is among the best plays on the slate for all contests and will be a popular pick.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Park
Kenan Song (21-7-0) v. Kevin Jousset (9-2-0)
Song Kenan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Kevin Jousset - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Song has far more experience than Jousset, but that would be the only advantage I give him. Though he has power, it will quickly be negated by the nasty straight jab that Jousset throws down the pipe. I expect Jousset to record another early finish and crush value at his tag for DFS.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Jousset
Andre Muniz (23-6-0) v. Jun Yong Park (17-5-0)
Andre Muniz - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
Jun Yong Park - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Muniz will always be an active threat for an early submission, particularly by armbar, but I think that will be his only path to victory in this one. Park will be lightyears ahead on the feet and the much better wrestler. I expect Park to take this a bit slower to avoid putting himself in danger, but is a safe play for cash contests.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Park
Nasrat Haqparast (15-5-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (17-6-0)
Nasrat Haqparast - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Mullarkey will have the edge on the mat if he can get it there. If Haqparast intends to throw more volume, he will have a considerable edge on the feet, particularly with Mullarkey's suspect chin. I expect Haqparast to keep this on the feet and win a lower-scoring decision. Mullarkey is live for GPP contests, given his grappling ability.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Haqparast
Sumudaerji (16-5-0) v. Tim Elliott (19-13-1)
Su Mudaerji - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Tim Elliott - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a classic striker vs. grappler fight, with Su having the edge on the feet and Elliott having the edge on the mat. Elliott is also taking this fight on short notice, which is always a concern, but this is a fight he should win. Su has been submitted in all five of his losses, but his chances skyrocket if he can avoid being taken down. Still, I expect Elliott to have the upper hand and edge this one out.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Elliott
Anthony Smith (37-18-0) v. Khalil Rountree Jr. (12-5-0)
Anthony Smith - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 34 finishes in 37 wins
Khalil Rountree Jr. - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Smith is taking this fight on short notice, but he is a veteran of the sport, so I am not too worried about that with him. He will sport a considerable edge on the mat, cardio and technical striking. Rountree is riding a four-fight win streak due to his powerful striking ability. However, his game is generally one-dimensional, and he struggles against willing grapplers. I expect Smith to use his wrestling and grappling to his advantage and get this to the mat early, eventually locking up a submission for the upset win.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Smith
Yadong Song (20-7-1) v. Chris Gutierrez (20-4-2)
Yadong Song - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
Chris Gutierrez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Gutierrez is a live dog due to his devastating kicks, but Yadong is better everywhere, mainly if he takes it to the mat. I expect Yadong to like up Gutierrez with strikes and potentially finish him in the championship rounds, where Gutierrez has yet to fight in the UFC.
UFC Vegas 83 Pick: Song
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 83 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
