UFC Seattle DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Pyfer. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Israel Adesanya (24-5-0) v. Joe Pyfer (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Adesanya ($8,500), Pyfer ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Adesanya (-135), Pyfer (+115)
Set to turn 37 years old in January, Adesanya enters having lost three in a row and is without a victory dating back to April 2023. He had fought for UFC gold in 12 straight bouts prior to his most recent fight against Nassourdine Imavov back in February 2025. The year-plus on the sidelines figures to be a positive for Izzy, although he's a fighter that relies on athleticism and movement for success and he simply doesn't look like the same guy of late. He wasn't competitive against Imavov and he wasn't competitive against Sean Strickland two fights prior. I have concerns moving forward.
Pyfer obviously hasn't fought anywhere near the level of competition of the former champion, but he's put in enough good work that he's worthy of this opportunity. The New Jersey native is 6-1 with the UFC, including victories over Abus Magomedov and Kelvin Gastelum. His lone setback came in a main event against Jack Hermansson in which he completely dominated early before badly gassing out, dropping a five-round unanimous decision in the process. Pyfer is legit and this feels like a fair matchup given what he's shown so far and his potential moving forward.
I touched on Adesanya's athleticism earlier. He's one of the most creative strikers in UFC history. He's long, unorthodox and mixes things up on the feet about as well as anyone we have ever seen.
That's the good news. The bad news is that he's volume-over-power and has no offensive grappling game, and I mean none, to speak of. Sure, Izzy will pick up a knockout here and there, but he's essentially a point kickboxer at this stage of his career and I expect that to continue moving forward.
Pyfer has a massive edge in terms of pure power. He's a strong striker, but nowhere near as capable and smooth as Adesanya.
Then there's the cardio issues. I think the Hermansson fight was more of a one-off. I don't expect Pyfer to be gassing out every single time he has to go to the championship rounds, but I would give the edge to Izzy the longer this fight goes.
Pyfer is giving up two inches in height and five inches in reach, so he's going to have the crash the pocket, which he usually does anyway. He's not a pure wrestler by trade, averaging 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he's a better grappler than Adesanya and if he's already fighting in tight I'm curious if he tries to get this fight to the mat and use his brute strength to overwhelm his opponent.
This one could go either way. I could see Adesanya's length and unorthodox style giving Pyfer problems, but I could also see Izzy's struggles continuing. The UFC by no means did him any favors with the matchup. When push come to shove, I think I trust what we might potentially see from Pyfer a bit more than what we have seen from Adesanya in the past.
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Pyfer
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Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) v. Maycee Barber (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Grasso ($7,400), Barber ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Grasso (+145), Barber (-175)
This is a rematch of a February 2021 fight which Grasso won via unanimous decision.
I've never been all that high on Grasso and looking back on it, I don't think I was incorrect. Sure, she beat Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC's Women's Flyweight Championship back in March 2023 via a miracle submission, but she clearly lost the rematch despite it being ruled a draw. She was then swept on the scorecards against Shevchenko in the third fight between the two before being swept on the scorecards against Natalia Silva in her most recent fight last May. To recap, Grasso has lost eight straight rounds unanimously. Now, I'm not here to say Barber is on the same level as Shevchenko and Silva because she's not, but I think it's safe to place Grasso -- now 32 years old -- in that second tier as opposed to the top.
Barber hasn't lost since the first fight against Grasso, winning seven in a row. The record is obviously great, but a deeper dive reveals concerns. Six of the seven have come via decision, with two being split decisions. More importantly is the fact Barber has dealt with serious health issues in recent years. She withdrew from fights in both 2024 and 2025, the latter of which was against Erin Blanchfield when Barber suffered a seizure just moments before she was about to make the walk. That said, her last fight against Karine Silva was in December and this is a quick turnaround so she must be feeling fine at the moment.
Much like Adesanya, Grasso is very much a point kickboxer. She has decent volume (4.11 significant strikes landed per minute) and she defends fairly well considering she's mostly in stand-up affairs, but there's no power to speak of here and like Izzy, very little offensive grappling of note. Grasso's last knockout win was in December 2014.
In terms of defensive grappling, Grasso's numbers are a bit skewed because she fought Shevchenko three times in a row, but I don't think anyone would say she has strong takedown defense. She's given up two-plus takedowns in six of her last nine fights, including three against Barber the first time around.
Grasso did a nice job in the first fight of reversing position and racking up 5:10 worth of control time herself. She's going to have to do the same thing here because Barber is super aggressive, much stronger, and the better grappler. I'd be shocked if Alexa doesn't hit the mat at least a couple of times.
The price is too high, but I think Barber takes a decision. Obviously, wait until weigh-ins to see how she looks on the scale. That's her most dangerous opponent at this point.
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Barber
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Welterweight
Michael Chiesa (19-7-0) v. Niko Price (16-10-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Chiesa ($9,500), Price ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Chiesa (-600), Price (+440)
Chiesa has lived and trained in Washington nearly his entire life and this is expected to serve as his retirement bout. Up until about a week ago, he was scheduled to face Carlston Harris, but he withdrew due to visa issues and Price stepped in.
At age 38, it feels like a good time for Chiesa to step aside despite the fact he's won three in a row. The three victories came over Court McGee, Max Griffin, and Tony Ferguson, so at least the company has been fair regarding the level of opposition Chiesa has been matched up against. Prior to that, he had lost three straight against Kevin Holland, Sean Brady, and Vicente Luque. Chiesa serves as an analyst for the UFC at times and he's good at it, so props to him for willingly stepping aside unlike so many others before him.
The UFC clearly wanted to keep Chiesa on this card given the circumstances and my guess is they offered Price the replacement spot in lieu of a release. To say Niko has fallen on hard times of late would be the understatement of the century. He's lost three straight and five of six, with five of those coming via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission). Price will be 37 years of age in late September and is clearly fighting for his job here, which could have been said in any of his last handful of prior bouts.
It's not a shock in the least that Price has struggled as he's aged. He's a pure brawler, with virtually zero means of generating any offense otherwise. His durability appears shot and he's at the point in his career where he simply never has a chance to land any damage on his opposition because he crumbles at the first sign of pressure going his way.
All that said, and as crazy as it sounds, this seems like a positive matchup for him stylistically?
In what is one of my favorite MMA stats of all time, Chiesa, who has been a professional since October 2010 and with the UFC since June 2012, doesn't have a single knockout win in his pro career.
Sure, you don't have to hit like Francis Ngannou to get Price out of there, but if Chiesa finds his first career knockout in his final fight, I'll be very impressed.
These "retirement fights" very rarely end well. This will probably be the exception. Chiesa is fighting at home and the company has matched him up about as softly as possible to go out on a winning note. That said, there's zero chance I'm betting Chiesa at -600 and if DK does add a salary for him it's going to be massive and unplayable given the Vegas line. I'd rather roll the dice on Price with full awareness there's about a 95 percent chance it's a wasted play.
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Price
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney (17-8-0) v. Kyle Nelson (17-6-1)
DK Salaries: McKinney ($8,700), Nelson ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: McKinney (-170), Nelson (+140)
McKinney is about as exciting as any fighter in company (for about two minutes), so good on the UFC for making sure he's in front of a hot crowd here at an arena show as opposed to fighting in the empty Apex.
Despite being perhaps the most entertaining guy on the roster, McKinney is still just 4-4 his past eight fights dating back to January 2023. Each of his last six bouts have ended in Round 1. He's had zero issues rolling through lower-end competition but has typically almost always struggled when tasked with facing a better opponent. His submission loss to Chris Duncan a little over two minutes in his last time out in December is a perfect example.
Nelson has been with the UFC since December 2018, which is a pretty nice accomplishment when you take into account his 5-5 (1NC) record. The fact he's still around after losing four of his first five fights with the company speaks to Nelson's resilience. Nelson is also in the midst of his best run to date, winning four of his last five. The lone setback in that stretch was a knockout at the hands of Steve Garcia in a fight which obviously shouldn't have been made.
If you go by the numbers alone, you'd think McKinney was the best fighter in the history of the sport.
He lands 6.24 significant strikes per minute on average, while racking up 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes on average.
Sadly, those numbers are irrelevant because his average fight time is 2:46. For comparison's sake, Nelson's average fight time is 10:24. The longer this one goes, the more it favors Nelson is a major, major way.
To the shock of no one, this fight projects to come down to the durability of Nelson. McKinney is a better athlete, has more power, and is probably twice as explosive. He's going to fight like he always does in an attempt to get Nelson out of there immediately.
For what it's worth, Nelson has been knocked out three times in 24 professional fights.
I'll take McKinney, albeit with little conviction. Nelson is a battle-tested veteran and he's going to take over if he can survive the early flurry. It's definitely within the range of possiblities.
UFC SEATTLE PICK: McKinney
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Julian Erosa (31-13-0) v. Lerryan Douglas (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Erosa ($7,200), Douglas ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Erosa (+260), Douglas (-325)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Douglas
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-0-1) v. Yousri Belgaroui (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Abdul-Malik ($8,200), Belgaroui ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Abdul-Malik (-120), Belgaroui (+100)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Belgaroui
Lightweight
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-6-0) v. Tofiq Musayev (22-6-0)
DK Salaries: Bahamondes ($9,200), Musayev ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Bahamondes (-290), Musayev (+235)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Bahamondes
Lightweight
Chase Hooper (16-4-1) v. Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hooper ($8,900), Gibson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Hooper (-270), Gibson (+230)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Hooper
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura (27-10-0) v. Tyrell Fortune (17-3-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Tybura ($7,900), Fortune ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Tybura (+110), Fortune (-130)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Fortune
Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill (10-2-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: O'Neill ($7,800), Fernandes ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: O'Neill (+110), Fernandes (-130)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: O'Neill
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling (8-0-0) v. Bruno Lopes (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Stirling ($9,400), Lopes ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Stirling (-600), Lopes (+440)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Stirling
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon (22-7-0) v. Adrian Yanez (17-6-0)
DK Salaries: Simon ($8,600), Yanez ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Simon (-155), Yanez (+130)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Yanez
Women's Strawweight
Alexia Thainara (13-1-0) v. Bruna Brasil (11-6-1)
DK Salaries: Thainara ($9,600), Brasil ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Thainara (-700), Brasil (+500)
UFC SEATTLE PICK: Thainara
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
