UFC 326 Predictions: DraftKings DFS Preview & Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 326 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - "BMF" Championship - Lightweight
Max Holloway (27-8-0) v. Charles Oliveira (36-11-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Holloway ($8,800), Oliveira ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Holloway (-230), Oliveira (+175)
This is a rematch of an August 2015 fight in which Holloway won via KO in 99 seconds following an Oliveira neck injury.
Max has shown zero signs of slowing down at age 34. He's bounced between lightweight and his traditional featherweight weight class in recent years, having a fair amount of success at both stops. He's lost four times since December 2019. Three of those came against Alexander Volkanovski and the other against Ilia Topuria, all in 145-pound title fights. In other words, he only losses to the best in the world. In less than the past two years, Holloway has defeated both Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje -- traditional lightweights -- in "BMF" title fights.
Oliveira will be 37 years of age in October and has alternated wins and losses in his past seven fights. The setbacks came against Topuria, Arman Tsarukyan, and Islam Makhachev, so again, you're talking about the literal best in the world. Charles has the most submission wins in UFC history (17) and the most finishes in company history with 21. He lacks consistency, but he's as dangerous as ever in short spurts.
I think it goes without saying that a prolonged kickboxing battle favors Holloway despite the fact Oliveira enters with a five-inch reach edge. Charles may have more pure power, but Max is the much cleaner striker and much more fluid with both his footwork and combinations. He's still capable of piling up a massive amount of volume if need be.
Oliveira is arguably the most dangerous mat specialist in the history of the sport, but getting Holloway in position to submit him may be difficult. He's tapped out just once in his professional career and that came in his third pro fight -- and UFC debut -- against Poirier back in February 2012.
Charles was able to submit both Justin Gaethje and Poirier in the past, but I can't help but think both of them tired in their respective fights and that was a main reason why. Not only does Holloway have no such cardio issues, he also has one of the best gas tanks in the history of the sport.
Oliveira has been going for broke early on in fights recently and I don't expect that to change here. He's at his most dangerous in the first round-plus. If this thing gets dragged into the championship rounds, I expect Holloway to have an advantage.
Outside of an early stoppage, which is definitely on the table, I think Holloway controls the pace of this fight. He's been knocked out once in his long professional career, which has consisted of countless five-round wars. I see no reason to bet against his durability until given a reason to do so and we haven't reached that point yet.
UFC 326 PICK: Holloway
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Caio Borralho (17-2-0, 1NC) v. Reinier de Ridder (21-3-0)
DK Salaries: Borralho ($9,200), De Ridder ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (-300), De Ridder (+240)
Both of these guys could have conceivably earned a title shot with a strong effort their last time out, but both looked awful in defeat, and one of them is almost certainly to be out of the championship picture entirely by the time this one is over.
De Ridder joined the UFC in November 2024 and won each of his first four fights with the company, including victories over Kevin Holland, Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker. He was due to fight Anthony Hernandez in a main event in October but he withdrew due to injury. Brendan Allen stepped in and simply grappled de Ridder to death, eventually winning via TKO at the end of Round 4. De Ridder often struggles in fights even in which he wins, so he's certainly not going to get the benefit of the doubt moving forward after a performance in which he struggled the entire time.
Borralho last fought in September and it wasn't an easy matchup. He had to travel to Paris to take on Nassourdine Imavov in a five-round main event in enemy territory. The Brazilian seemed out of sorts from the very start and was never able to get out of first gear. He failed on all five of his takedown attempts and while the total strike count was tied at 89, the larger, more damaging blows came from the Imavov side. He ultimately dropped a 50-45 and 49-46 x2 decision.
I really don't know what to make of de Ridder moving forward. So much of his success seems to be due to the fact he's so big and physical for the middleweight division. He's 6-foot-4, he's three inches taller than Borralho and will also enter with a three-inch reach advantage. RDR spent a ton of time in the past fighting at 205 pounds and I can't help but think that might be an option down the road if things go south at 185 pounds.
On the flip side, Borralho is very much a generalist from an offensive standpoint. He doesn't have one elite skill to fall back upon on the event of trouble, but he has no real weaknesses, either. He should probably lean on his wrestling here if possible considering de Ridder was just controlled for 11:39 of a fight that went only four rounds, but Caio hasn't landed a single takedown in his last four fights and almost all of his UFC grappling success came against pure strikers. Guys like Michal Oleksiejczuk and Armen Petrosyan.
The more I think about it, the more I don't want to back either of them heavily right now given their recent performances.
I guess that makes me lean in de Ridder's direction, because I don't think there's a $2,200 salary gap between he and Borralho, but I don't feel confident about it.
I could see this fight being boring and it's probably going the distance. Neither could pay off from a DraftKings standpoint.
UFC 326 PICK: de Ridder
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Bantamweight
Rob Font (22-9-0) v. Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Font ($7,500), Rosas ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Font (+180), Rosas (-220)
This one was originally scheduled to be the co-main event of a Fight Night card in September before Rosas withdrew due to a rib issue. Font stayed on the card and dropped a unanimous decision to David Martinez, who is clearly quite better than he got credit for at the time.
Font will be 39 years of age in July. He's 3-5 in his past eight fights dating back to December 2021, although a good chunk of those struggled came against high-end opposition. He's a talented striker and always has been, but there's a hole the size of the Atlantic Ocean in his grappling game. That would seem to be a massive issue against Rosas, who does literally nothing well except wrestle.
The UFC continues to take things extremely slowly with Rosas, which is perfectly fine given he won't be 22 years old until October. He's 5-1 in six fights with the company and his best win to date is probably over Ricky Turcios, to give you an idea the level of competition they have matched him up against. Font, even at this stage of his career, is the best opponent he's faced to date by a country mile. That said, while Font may be a notable name, he has a weakness in his game which plays directly into Raul's greatest strength and I guarantee the UFC took that into consideration when booking this fight. They set it up once, it fell apart, and now they're doing it again. They know something.
Font is a high volume striker (5.36 significant strikes landed per minute) with quick hands and quick feet. He's a boxer. He doesn't throw many kicks and he's always been willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. The good news is that he won't have to worry about any volume coming back his way in this fight because Rosas is a fish out of water on the feet.
On average, Raul lands 1.51 significant strikes per minute. Without fail, whenever you see a number that low, it's a one-dimensional wrestler that spends the majority of their time in top position. Rosas is no exception to that.
His cardio isn't great and might actually be bad, but he's most definitely a power wrestler and is averaging 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a whopping 40 percent of his shots. On the flip side, Font defends the takedown at a 43 percent clip. That number is only going to get worse as he ages and his athleticism wanes.
It's going to be far from pretty, but Font has a clear path to victory because he's light years better than Rosas on the feet. The question is whether or not he can remain upright long enough to employ that advantage.
I would wager there's enough control time from Rosas over the first two rounds to win a decision but I expect things to get extremely hairy if this fight sees a Round 3.
UFC 326 PICK: Rosas
Lightweight
Drew Dober (28-15-0, 1NC) v. Michael Johnson (25-19-0)
DK Salaries: Dober ($8,000), Johnson ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Dober (+100), Johnson (-120)
This is a really weird fight to have on the main card of a numbered event at this point in their respective careers and while it means nothing in terms of rankings or impacting the title picture, it should be pretty darn entertaining.
Never one to turn down a fight, Dober lost three straight -- including two via knockout -- from February 2024 to March 2025 and I thought there was a real chance the UFC would cut him at that time. They gave him another chance and to Dober's credit, he responded with a knockout win over Kyle Prepolec in October in Vancouver. He's probably going to find himself right back on the chopping block if he comes up short here against Johnson, but Dober has been with the UFC since November 2013 and has long been a "company guy,", so he probably has more leeway than most.
Johnson enters having won three in a row including a massive unanimous decision upset of Daniel Zellhuber his last time out in July 2025. MJ was due to face Anthony Hernandez earlier this year before the UFC decided to to cancel the bout due to betting irregulates leading up to the fight. Johnson will be 40 years old in June and lost four straight from March 2019 to February 2021 so the fact he's going for a four-fight winning streak in the early days of 2026 is an accomplishment in it's own right.
Offensively, these two guys are mirror images of each other.
Both are super aggressive strikers, Dober in particular. They try to push a pace and keep their opponent on the back foot and let the chips fall where they may.
Neither offers much of anything in terms of grappling outside of an outlier takedown here and there should the opportunity present itself. Both average less than one takedown per 15 minutes.
Picking a winner here essentially boils down to whose durability you trust considering the two are a combined 76 years old.
I actually lean Dober because I think he's slightly more explosive in short spurts but this is a pick 'em for a reason. Flip a coin.
UFC 326 PICK: Dober
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues (18-6-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rodrigues ($8,600), Ferreira ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Rodrigues (-200), Ferreira (+165)
This is a rematch of a January 2023 fight which Ferreira won via first-round knockout. Both have been excellent since.
Rodrigues is 5-1 in his last six fights with victories over the likes of Roman Kopylov, Jack Hermansson, and Christian Leroy Duncan in there. He has power, is active on the feet, and is an underrated grappler. The Brazilian's age (34 as of a couple weeks ago) is going to make it difficult for him to consistently crack the top 10 of the middleweight rankings, but Rodrigues isn't far off.
Since the first fight between the two, Ferreira is 5-2, with four of the wins coming via stoppage. The lone notable win during that stretch was his last time out, a unanimous decision over Marvin Vettori. The two losses came against Abus Magomedov (submission) and Nursulton Ruziboev (knockout).
To say these two are built differently would be the understatement of the year. Rodrigues is every bit of 6-foot-3 and wouldn't look the least bit out of place at light heavyweight, let alone middleweight. Ferreira is 5-foot-10 and built like The Incredible Hulk, which is oddly enough, his nickname.
Rodrigues will enter with a three-inch reach edge which seems relevant because while Ferreira has five career wins via submission, he's looking to get to his power at all times.
I have zero idea who I picked in the first fight, but this time around it is probably going to come down to the durability of Rodrigues. Four of his six career defeats are via knockout. Ferreira should enter with plenty of confidence knowing he already finished this man once in the past.
Rodrigues is bigger and is the better all-around fighter. He can get lazy on the feet at times, which isn't an option against a guy with the nuclear power of Ferreira, but he's also shown the ability to tailor his game plan to his opposition and lean on his wrestling if that's his clearest path to victory. I've always considered him a high IQ fighter with the ability to make in-fight adjustments if necessary.
Ferreira is going to have confidence giving his win in the first fight but I still think backing the bigger, better all-around fighter is the play and will work out more often than not.
UFC 326 PICK: Rodrigues
OTHER BOUTS
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (14-7-0) v. Long Xiao (27-10-0)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($7,900), Long ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (+125), Long (-150)
UFC 326 PICK: Long
Middleweight
Donte Johnson (7-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (11-8-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($9,500), Brundage ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-600), Brundage (+440)
UFC 326 PICK: Johnson
Featherweight
Ricky Turcios (13-5-0) v. Alberto Montes (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Turcios ($7,700), Montes ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Turcios (+160), Montes (-190)
UFC 326 PICK: Montes
Flyweight
Cody Durden (17-9-1) v. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Durden ($7,800), Tumendemberel ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Durden (+115), Tumendemberel (-135)
UFC 326 PICK: Durden
Flyweight
Su Mudaerji (18-7-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Mudaerji ($9,100), Aguilar ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Mudaerji (-245), Aguilar (+200)
UFC 326 PICK: Mudaerji
Light Heavyweight
Rafael Tobias (14-1-0) v. Diyar Nurgozhay (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Tobias ($9,000), Nurgozhay ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Tobias (-205), Nurgozhay (+170)
UFC 326 PICK: Tobias
Featherweight
Jeong Yeong Lee (11-3-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($9,300), Bolanos ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Lee (-285), Bolanos (+230)
UFC 326 PICK: Lee
Light Heavyweight
Luke Fernandez (6-0-0) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-3-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Fernandez ($8,900), Bellato ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Fernandez (-230), Bellato (+190)
UFC 326 PICK: Fernandez
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
