This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Edmonton DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Edmonton takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) v. Amir Albazi (17-1-0)
DK Salaries: Moreno ($8,500), Albazi ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Moreno (-165), Albazi (+140)
Moreno has been on a tough run over the past year-plus. He lost the UFC Flyweight Championship to Alexandre Pantoja via split decision back in July 2023. He then returned this past February, only to drop a split decision to Brandon Royval. Both of those fights could have legitimately gone either way, but Moreno is now left with a 3-3 record in his past half-dozen bouts. It's hard to make headway in any division with a .500 mark over a prolonged stretch.
This is a major step up in competition for Albazi. He's 5-0 in the UFC, although he hasn't fought since June 2023. That was his first main event with the company and came against Kai Kara-France. Albazi won via split decision, although most anyone that watched it -- other than the two judges who felt otherwise -- would have scored it for KKF. The result propelled Albazi into this spot, and he now has a prime opportunity to impact the title picture with a win.
I have major concerns about Moreno moving forward. Yes, he's gotten legitimately better as he's aged, and I was clearly too light on him, but I'm not sure how much of it is sustainable. Moreno's two greatest attributes are his grit and determination. He's insanely tough. Yet, I'm starting to wonder if all the wars Brandon has been in over the years is impacting him. He was outworked late in the Royval fight, and that's a major concern, because I would say Moreno is unquestionably the more gifted fighter of those two.
All that said, I have even greater concerns about Albazi. Nothing in the advanced numbers suggest this is a true contender. Albazi lands almost no volume on the feet (2.8 significant strikes per minute), and while he's a capable grappler (1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes), he's far from an elite wrestler. He landed 1-of-9 takedown attempts on Kara-France and allowed KKF to connect on each of his two tries. Unless you're a truly high-end grappler like Islam Makhachev or someone like that, you need to make your headway elsewhere.
Backing Moreno is tricky here because you're asking him to do a few of the things he's struggled with of late. That being fighting a full 25 minutes and putting it on Albazi late in a bout which seems likely to go to a decision.
The fact it's a five-round fight swings me in Brandon's direction, but I can't say I'm overly confident about it. It's mostly just a fade on Albazi, who lacks output and has beaten just one high-level opponent in the UFC (and deserved to lose that fight). I'll hope for a vintage performance from the former champ for at least one more evening.
THE PICK: Moreno
Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0) v. Rose Namajunas (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Blanchfield ($8,400), Namajunas ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Blanchfield (-135), Namajunas (+115)
It appeared for quite a while that this fight would headline this card before the Moreno v. Albazi bout was booked, shifting this one to the co-main event.
Blanchfield last fought in Manon Fiorot in March in Atlantic City in a fight I attended personally. I picked Fiorot in hostile territory, but even I didn't see it being as lopsided as it was. Erin essentially no-showed the biggest fight of her career in her native New Jersey, getting swept on the judges' scorecards. Her pacing appeared off, and she had zero chance of defeating the bigger, stronger Fiorot if she wasn't able to get her grappling game going.
The former UFC Women's Strawweight Champion, Namajunas moved up to 125 pounds about a year ago. She dropped a unanimous decision to Fiorot in her first flyweight fight and has since rebounded with back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Tracy Cortez and Amanda Ribas. The Cortez fight was originally supposed to be Rose and Maycee Barber, but the latter was forced to withdraw due to an illness, and Tracy stepped in on very short notice.
Erin has earned a reputation as an excellent grappler, but she's 0-for-17 combined on takedown attempts in her last two bouts against Fiorot and Taila Santos. Blanchfield is very strong and possesses the ability to rack up control time even if the takedowns aren't landing, but it's ultimately difficult to see her going very far against high-end competition unless she can get her wrestling game going.
That said, if there's one way to attack Rose, it's with offensive wrestling. She gave up a pair of takedowns to Cortez and four to Ribas, a known striker. Her 60 percent career takedown defense is poor, and in a fight that seems likely to go the distance, I imagine Blanchfield can steal a round or two with a couple well-timed shots.
I actually give the edge on the feet to Namajunas. It was once a weakness of Rose, but she's improved considerably in that area over the years. I think she's a more technical boxer than Blanchfield, although I'd be shocked if much of this fight was spent at distance.
This has all the makings of a fight that could go either way, and it's essentially priced as such. On a card with 14 fights, I'd tread carefully either way.
In terms of a pick, I'm going with Blanchfield simply because her theoretical great strength -- her grappling -- plays into Rose's greatest weakness. I'll typically always side with the offensive wrestler, especially in fight almost certainly to see the final bell.
THE PICK: Blanchfield
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, 1NC) v. Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($7,600), Diniz ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (+150), Diniz (-180)
Lewis was originally scheduled to face Alexandr Romanov in a co-main event spot here, but the UFC called an audible and inserted Diniz while still keeping Romanov on the card. It's not something you see often.
Set to turn 40 years of age this coming February, Lewis is an attraction at this stage of his career as opposed to any sort of legitimate contender. His 15 knockout victories are the most in UFC history, but he's just 3-5 in his last eight fights dating back to August 2021. Lewis still has value because of his immense popularity, but the company needs to be exceedingly careful regarding the type of opponent it matches him up against moving forward.
A former professional kickboxer, Diniz has all of eight professional fights under his belt at age 33. One of those came on Dana White's Contender Series, while his two official bouts with the company were a knockout of Austen Lane this past April and a unanimous decision win over Karl Williams in August. I'm not actually sure Lewis is any better than Williams, but he definitely brings an entirely different skill set to the table.
I'm confident in saying this will be a stand-up battle. Lewis, who has actually improved his conditioning over the years, is a notorious one-dimensional brawler. The power is elite, but the rest of his offensive arsenal is not.
Diniz also has zero grappling to speak of, and the Williams fight was the first of his pro career that didn't go the distance.
We've seen Lewis land takedowns on unsuspecting opponents in the past, and it would clearly be his clearest path to victory here. Why Williams didn't spam takedowns in his fight against Diniz anyone's guess. He went 0-for-2 in Round 1, attempted none in Round 2, then went 2-for-3 in Round 3. That won him the final frame on two of the three scorecards, but the damage was already done.
Diniz might be six years younger than Lewis, but this is the only type of fight "The Black Beast" can win these days -- a stand-up, back-and-forth brawl. There's no evidence his power has evaporated in the least, so while he could very easily get dropped by Diniz in an instant, he also could pull the upset, and the price is right to back him. Give me Lewis with in a trademark, throwback effort.
THE PICK: Lewis
Welterweight
Mike Malott (10-2-1) v. Trevin Giles (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Malott ($9,200), Giles ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Malott (-250), Giles (+205)
A potential rising star at 170 pounds, Malott received a step up in competition against Neil Magny in January in Toronto. It was an entirely winnable fight in his home country, and Malott dominated for the vast majority of it, only to be knocked out with 15 seconds remaining. It was a horrible look against an aging veteran and essentially removed any chance he had of flying up the welterweight rankings.
As a result, he finds himself fighting Giles, the loser of two in a row and four of his last six. All four of those losses have come via stoppage, with three being via knockout and another via submission. The two wins were via decision over Preston Parsons (split) and Louis Cosce (unanimous). In other words, Giles is likely fighting for his job here.
This fight is literally a no-win situation for Malott. A victory over Giles means nothing in terms of the rankings, and a loss would essentially mean the end of his UFC run, even if it's unlikely he would be outright handed his walking papers.
Malott fights with a ton of physicality and is a good wrestler. He's taken down three of his four UFC opponents. He got Magny, a crafty and very tall veteran, to the mat on four separate occasions. He's got tricky submission skills, but isn't all that vicious from top position.
Giles is primarily a generalist. He's fine everywhere, but doesn't have one elite skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble. He doesn't land much (3.27 significant strikes per minute), doesn't get hit much (2.22 significant strikes per minute absorbed), and although he can mix in a takedown here and there (1.19 averaged per 15 minutes), he is a middle-of-the-road grappler.
I will say that backing Malott after the Magny fight is a tricky proposition. Are we sure this guy can perform for 15 minutes? He cardio is questionable, and his pace drops off as his bouts progress.
All that said, he's theoretically better than Giles in every single area. It's an easy pick. Just cross your fingers and hope he can finish the job this time.
THE PICK: Malott
Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Caio Machado (8-3-1) v. Brendson Ribeiro (15-7-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Machado ($8,500), Ribeiro ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Machado (-155), Ribeiro (+130)
THE PICK: Machado
Middleweight
Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8-0, 1NC) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6-0)
DK Salaries: Barriault ($8,900), Stoltzfus ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Barriault (-190), Stoltzfus (+160)
THE PICK: Barriault
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi (11-2-0) v. Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Zahabi ($7,900), Munhoz ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)
THE PICK: Munhoz
Women's Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (17-9-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: da Silva ($7,200), Jasudavicius ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: da Silva (+185), Jasudavicius (-225)
THE PICK: Jasudavicius
Bantamweight
Charles Jourdain (15-8-1) v. Victor Henry (24-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jourdain ($8,200), Henry ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Jourdain (-125), Henry (+105)
THE PICK: Henry
Featherweight
Jack Shore (17-2-0) v. Youssef Zalal (15-5-1)
DK Salaries: Shore ($7,100), Zalal ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Shore (+215), Zalal (-265)
THE PICK: Zalal
Heavyweight
Alexandr Romanov (17-3-0) v. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Romanov ($7,900), Nascimento ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Romanov (+100), Nascimento (-120)
THE PICK: Romanov
Bantamweight
Serhiy Sidey (10-2-0) v. Garrett Armfield (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Sidey ($8,600), Armfield ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Sidey (-150), Armfield (+125)
THE PICK: Armfield
Bantamweight
Chad Anheliger (13-7-0) v. Cody Gibson (21-10-0)
DK Salaries: Anheliger ($7,500), Gibson ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Anheliger (+165), Gibson (-200)
THE PICK: Gibson
Women's Flyweight
Jamey-Lyn Horth (6-1-0) v. Ivana Petrovic (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Horth ($8,800), Petrovic ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Horth (-200), Petrovic (+165)
THE PICK: Horth
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Edmonton with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
