The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, May 16, for UFC Vegas 117. In the main event, featherweight contenders throw down as Arnold Allen takes on Melquizael Costa in a pivotal fight at 145lbs.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 117 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Arnold Allen (20-4) vs. Melquizael Costa (26-7)
In the main event, Arnold Allen takes on the streaking Melquizael Costa in a pivotal fight at featherweight, and I like Allen to get his hand raised.
Allen is 1-3 in his last four, but his losses came to the very best of the division in Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway, and the Brit fought all of them well. Costa, meanwhile, has been streaking, but this is a big step up in competition.
Costa is a finisher, but the level of competition isn't anywhere near what Allen has fought. Allen has also proven he can go five rounds. I like Allen to be able to survive Costa's early power and take over in the later rounds to get a decision win.
Allen is a quality and consistent striker who should be able to be more active on his feet to get a decision win.
UFC Vegas 117 Bet: Arnold Allen (-166)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Tuco Tokkos (11-5) vs. Ivan Erslan (14-6)
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 117, I'm taking Tuco Tokkos to beat Ivan Erslan in a fight where the loser likely gets cut from the UFC.
Tokkos and Erslan have both struggled with the promotion, as Tokkos is 1-2 in the UFC, while Erslan is 0-3. Erslan is coming off a quick submission loss to Jimmy Crute, while Tokkos is coming off a submission win over Junior Tafa.
Both Tokkos and Erslan have negative striking differential, but Tokkos should be able to use his wrestling to win the minutes and even potentially get a submission win. I'll take Tokkos as the underdog given he has the wrestling advantage.
UFC Vegas 117 Bet: Tuco Tokkos (+145)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker (10-1) vs. Juan Diaz (15-1-1)
For my prop pick at UFC Vegas 117, I'm taking Malcolm Wellmaker to defeat Juan Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ.
Wellmaker has shown plenty of power in his hands, but is coming off a stunning loss to Ethyn Ewing by decision on short notice. Since then, however, Ewing has shown he's a legit prospect. Wellmaker now takes on Diaz, who's making his UFC debut.
Although Diaz was impressive on the regional scene, this is a prime matchup for Wellmaker to return to the win column in a big way. I expect Wellmaker to be aggressive early and land big shots to get a TKO win in the first or second round.
UFC Vegas 117 Bet: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
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Weight Class: Middleweight & Strawweight
Andre Petroski (13-5) vs. Cody Brundage (11-9-1)
Nicolle Caliari (8-4) vs. Shauna Bannon (7-2)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 117, I'm taking Andre Petroski and Nicolle Caliari to get their hands raised.
Petroski takes on Cody Brundage on the prelims in an intriguing middleweight bout. Petroski has lost back-to-back fights, while Brundage has lost three in a row and is 5-8-1 (1 NC) in the UFC. The loser here is likely getting cut. Petroski and Brundage are similar, but I believe the difference is that Petroski is the better wrestler and grappler. I like Petroski to take Brundage down and control him on the ground, and even if he doesn't get the finish, he should get a clear-cut decision.
In the other leg, I'm taking Caliari to defeat Shauna Bannon in the first fight of the night. Caliari is 0-2 in the UFC, while Bannon is 2-2, but the Irish-born fighter hasn't impressed me at all. I like Caliari to use her wrestling to control Bannon and edge out a decision, using her biggest strength to her advantage here.
UFC Vegas 117 Bet: Andre Petroski & Nicolle Caliari parlay (+110)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 117 card.
- Arnold Allen (-166)
- Tuco Tokkos (+145)
- Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
- Andre Petroski & Nicolle Caliari parlay (+110)
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