UFC Macau DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Macau. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Yadong Song Yadong (22-9-1, 1NC) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (25-6-1)
DK Salaries: Song ($9,500), Figuieredo ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Song (-600), Figuieredo (+440)
Now 38 years old, Figueiredo moved up to 135 pounds in December 2023 following a storied run at flyweight. He won his first three fights in his new digs before falling on hard times of late, losing three of four dating back to November 2024. The three losses came against Umar Nurmagomedov, Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan, so all were perfectly justified. The win was a split decision over Montel Jackson. Figueiredo's most recent fight was against Cousin Umar in January. He missed weight by 2.5 pounds that evening before getting swept on the scorecards.
Song is just 3-3 in his past half-dozen bouts, with his setbacks coming against Yan, Sandhagen, and most recently, Sean O'Malley in January (on the same card in which Figueiredo lost to Nurmagomedov). I have more hope for Song turning things around than Figgy simply because he's a decade younger, but there's a legitimate gap between both of them and the true top guys in the division, as we have seen in recent years.
My major concern regarding Figueiredo is how much he has struggled on the feet since moving up to bantamweight. These numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt because of the competition level faced, but in his last four fights, Figgy has absorbed 239 significant strikes while landing just 90.
He's never been a volume puncher by any means, although he was capable of big performances earlier in his career. That's completely out the window now, and I'm concerned Song is going to overwhelm him on the feet, particularly because Figueiredo's cardio has always been questionable.
Figgy certainly has a grappling edge, and I could see him have some success there early on, but I don't think he has the gas tank to keep it up for a prolonged period of time. Song's takedown defense (73 percent) is roughly average, and while he may give up one here and there, I don't have any major concerns in that area.
In Song's last five fights, his significant strike landed totals are as follows: 36, 84, 86, 77, 105. In other words, he's lightyears ahead of Figueiredo in that area, and even a drop off -- which doesn't seem likely in this matchup -- would still be enough to lap Figgy.
I don't love the price tag on Song, and I think some of the other massive chalk favorites on the card are better plays, but I still think he wins pretty easily.
The UFC is flying a struggling 38-year-old halfway around the world to face you in your own backyard. You better win and do so impressively.
THE PICK: Song
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang (19-7-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (17-6-1)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($8.900), Menifield ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-260), Menifield (+210)
Zhang began his UFC run with three straight knockout wins against lower-level opposition before being stiffed by Johnny Walker in a main event last August in Shanghai. To be fair, he probably won Round 1 before the roof caved in. I have zero idea what to make of Zhang moving forward. The power is probably real but he's already closing in on 30 pro fights at age 27. He's never really fought anyone of note. His appeal is somewhat enhanced by the fact he competes in the thinnest division in the company.
Menifield has been trending in the wrong direction for the past two-plus years. He's 2-3 in his last five, with the setbacks coming via knockout to Volkan Oezdemir, Azamat Murzakanov, and Carlos Ulberg. The wins were a split decision over Julius Walker in which he was a significant favor and a unanimous decision win over a guy in Oumar Sy who is nowhere near as good as originally projected. Set to turn 39 years old in October, I'm pessimistic Menifield will be able to turn things around.
This fight is dangerous because both of these guys have major, major durability issues.
Of their 13 combined career defeats, eight (four each) are via knockout.
Neither man can grapple a lick, so I expect a stand-up brawl for as long as this one lasts.
Volume is definitely on Zhang's side, which is a good thing when huge one blow could conceivably end things in an instant. On the flip side, Zhang's stand-up defense is atrocious. You simply cannot brawl the way he does fight after fight and expect to live to tell about it.
Alonzo's power has been MIA for the better part of the past four years, but I would wager he still has enough left in the tank to put Zhang away, especially given what Walker just did to him.
This is a fight with a ton of moving parts that I could see playing out multiple ways. It's one I would typically pass on, but the further you go down this card the less reliable it becomes, so I understand if someone wants to take a stand here.
I'm rolling with Zhang because of how long it's been since Menifield put anyone away, but I have zero confidence in this pick.
THE PICK: Zhang
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich (20-3-0) v. Tallison Teixeira (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Pavlovich ($9,400), Teixeira ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Pavlovich (-625), Teixeira (+455)
Pavlovich doesn't get talked about much when the top heavyweights on the roster are brought up, but he probably should. He's 8-2 in his past 10 fights, with the two setbacks being a 69-second knockout to Tom Aspinall in a title fight and a unanimous decision loss to Alexander Volkov. Pavlovich is an easy top-five guy at this point, which means he has nothing to gain here and everything to lose.
Teixeira looked like a real prospect after winning his first eight pro fights (including his official UFC debut and another on Dana White's Contender Series) via stoppage, but then he was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in 35 seconds in a main event last July before barely getting by Tai Tuivasa via unanimous decision this past February. The Tuivasa win is way more concerning than the Lewis loss. Going the distance with Tai in 2026 tells you all you need to know.
Pavlovich is one of the biggest and thickest guys in the heavyweight division. I know he's giving up four inches in reach to the 6-foot-7 Brazilian, but I doubt it matters.
Sergei has landed only two takedowns in his UFC career, both against Jair Rozenstruik a couple fights ago. That said, my guess is he could take down Teixeira at will if he decides to go that route. He's so big and strong and Tallison is so lanky that I think the latter is going for a ride if Pavlovich gets ahold of him.
Does that mean he will try to wrestle? Probably not, but it's nice to have the option on the table.
Texieira has seven career wins via knockout, but the only person of note he's finished is Justin Tafa and regular readers of this column know my opinion on both Tafa brothers. I don't value that victory in the slightest.
In Teixeira, I see a tall, long guy with a good, not great, stand-up game and poor cardio. He's essentially a Round 1 knockout-or-bust brawler.
There's zero chance he's going to outwork Pavlovich over 15 minutes like he theoretically did against Tuivasa, so while the price tag on Sergei is enormous, I don't see how he loses outside of a flash knockout.
THE PICK: Pavlovich
Bantamweight
Kai Asakura (21-6-0) v. Cameron Smotherman (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Asakura ($9,000), Smotherman ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Asakura (-300), Smotherman (+240)
A former Rizin Bantamweight Champion, Asakura moved back down to flyweight for the first time in seven years to face Alexandre Pantoja for the 125-pound title in his UFC debut back in December 2024. He lost via second-round submission before being submitted again, this time by Tim Elliott, in his second fight with the company last August. He's moving back to bantamweight here, which I'm not terribly optimistic about over the long haul but seems like the correct move for the immediate future.
Outside of one fight on Dana White's Contender Series (unanimous decision loss) and three official fights with the UFC (1-2), Smotherman has spent his entire pro career with Fury FC. He's dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions to Ricky Simon and Serhiy Sidey on the heels of a unanimous decision win over Jake Hadley in his official October 2024 company debut. With this year's version of DWCS forthcoming, I'm fairly confident Smotherman will be fighting for his job Saturday and he might not even be safe with a victory. The UFC has already cut multiple competitors (Ketlen Vieira, Ivan Erslan) that won on the most recent card a couple weeks ago.
At 5-foot-8, Asakura was very big for flyweight. That size is largely negated at 135 pounds, as he's giving up an inch in height to Smotherman. Both men have a 69-inch reach.
Asakura has had durability issues in the past, with three career losses via knockout, and of late he's been having trouble defending submissions.
He does have real power, but that also figures to be negated some at the higher weight class. Asakura isn't a bad fighter but I'd be lying if I said there was anything positive to take from his first two UFC fights. If you're a backer of his, the hope is he simply feels more comfortable at bantamweight and shows up ready to go. It's a largely faith-based play.
Smotherman's undoing has been his complete inability to defend a takedown. He gave up three to Simon and five to Sidey. He even allowed one to Hadley in his lone UFC victory. Asakura is yet to attempt a takedown with the company, but it's hard to remain at the top of a company like Rizin for such a long time with zero grappling game. I think you're going to see Kai at least threaten some wrestling, if for no other reason than to open things up on the feet.
It's quite clear Asakura isn't on the same level as the best guys in the flyweight division like Pantoja, but there's a case to be made he's better off at bantamweight and if he can't get by a guy like Smotherman at -300 in what is essentially a home game, he probably shouldn't be in the UFC at all. I think he finds a way, although a large reason I feel that way is because I'm not a Smotherman backer, even at this generous price, by any means.
THE PICK: Asakura
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Jake Matthews (22-8-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Matthews ($9,200), Harris ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Matthews (-325), Harris (+260)
THE PICK: Matthews
Flyweight
Alex Perez (26-10-0) v. Su Mudaerji (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Perez ($8,500), Mudaerji ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Perez (-140), Mudaerji (+120)
THE PICK: Perez
Middleweight
Yi Sak Lee (8-1-0) v. Luis Felipe Dias (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lee ($7,600), Dias ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Lee (+145), Dias (-175)
THE PICK: Lee
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Welterweight
Ding Meng (35-9-0) v. Jose Henrique Souza (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Meng ($8,400), Henrique ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Meng (-120), Henrique (+100)
THE PICK: Meng
Bantamweight
Aori Qileng (26-12-0, 1NC) v. Cody Haddon (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Qileng ($6,900), Haddon ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Qileng (+285), Haddon (-360)
THE PICK: Haddon
Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya (10-1-0) v. Luis Gurule (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tsuruya ($8,800), Gurule ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Tsuruya (-245), Gurule (+200)
THE PICK: Tsuruya
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill (18-16-0) v. Jingnan Xiong (19-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hill ($7,500), Xiong ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Hill (+170), Xiong (-205)
THE PICK: Xiong
Featherweight
Kangjie Zhu (21-4-0, 1NC) v. Rodrigo Vera (21-1-1)
DK Salaries: Zhu ($7,900), Vera ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Zhu (-105), Vera (-115)
THE PICK: Vera
Women's Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee (10-4-0) v. Jaqueline Amorim (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lookboonmee ($8,000), Amorim ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Lookboonmee (+105), Amorim (-125)
THE PICK: Lookboonmee
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
