The UFC returns to the Apex for a 13-bout slate full of closely lined matchups. We'll take a look at each fight across three platforms. Recommendations this week include a UFC veteran in a curious underdog spot and a heavy-handed boxer looking to right the ship after his first professional loss. Our betting lines come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Tommy Gantt ($9,000)
Gantt turned heads on the Contender Series with a quick submission victory and draws a short-notice opponent in Artur Minev, who consistently gives ground in the cage. There are questions to be answered about the depth of his game, but Gantt's All-American wrestling pedigree and his ability to find chokes should be enough here.
Andre Petroski ($8,900)
Cody Brundage has become the UFC's "anytime, anywhere" card filler at middleweight, as the bout against Petroski will be his fifth in the last calendar year. He has lost all four previous fights. As a heavy-handed puncher with a strong wrestling background, Brundage isn't a complete walkover, but Petroski is much more polished on the feet and is also the better control grappler. This being the case, it's difficult to imagine how Brundage gets his hand raised here.
Daniel Barez ($8,200)
Barez may be the best 1-2 fighter in the organization, as his agility, slick boxing, and grappling ability were muted by two highly touted prospects in Jafel Filho and Andre Lima. Luis Gurule is a competent wrestle-boxer, but he won't be able to keep up with the speed or combinations of Barez, who I expect to be the better scrambler when the fight hits the ground.
Nicolle Caliari ($9,000)
We always take note when the bookmakers feed us lines that seem strange, but there's a reason that Caliari is a sizable favorite over Shauna Bannon despite losing the only two fights she's had in the UFC. While it wasn't enough to best a high-level striker like Carli Judice, Caliari's boxing is improving all the time to complement her high-level jiu-jitsu game. Bannon is a karate-style striker with just enough ground game to get her in trouble against a high-level opponent.
Polyana Viana ($7,500)
Speaking of lines that seem strange, it's difficult to take Alice Ardelean seriously as a significant favorite against a UFC veteran, as her two-fight win streak has come against fighters who are a collective 1-9 in the organization. The Romanian fighter can roll downhill with offense in the right matchup, but Viana will be able to throw long-straight punches with her five-inch reach advantage and will be dangerous if the fight goes to the ground. We need to be able to punish recency bias when we see it, and this line seems like a clear-cut example.
Doo Ho Choi ($7,800)
I picked Choi to win both of his fights by knockout in 2024 and may just ride the wave until he is given highly ranked opponents in the division. What was most noticeable about Choi's return was his improved boxing, as "Korean Superboy" seemed to go from wild brawler to educated striker, working off of his jab and crushing opponents with a versatile left uppercut. He will also wrestle when the situation calls for it, which should work to stifle Daniel Santos, who likes to swarm with big strikes. "Wily Cat" is aggressive and incredibly tough, but Choi should be able to pick him apart with counter shots.
Timothy Cuamba ($7,900)
Cuamba is another fighter who has cleaned up his boxing, marrying it with high-risk attacks and mixing in his own takedowns to throw off the rhythm of his opponents. Benardo Sopaj is a bit more of a brute by comparison, throwing big shots and trying to work a power takedown game. This fight is as close as it looks on paper, but I will give the slight edge to Cuamba due to the depth of his skill set and Sopaj's questionable gas tank.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Ketlen Vieira UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes, Christian Edwards UNDER 28.5 Significant Strikes, and Melquizael Costa UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes
Vieira likes to try to pull her opponents into counters, but that simply won't yield success against Jacqueline Cavalcanti, who fights long and controls the range with her jab. Expect the Brazilian to force the clinch as often as possible instead, as "The Nightmare" hasn't been productive from bottom position and Vieira has always been strong in the clinch.
Edwards was thought of as a can't-miss prospect at one point in his career, but there isn't much more to his game than wrestling these days, as he likes to use his length and athleticism to dominate opponents on the mat. He will likely try to get to the ground as often as possible against Modestas Bukauskas, a powerful fighter with fast hands who can manage range. Expect Edwards to try to take control of this fight quickly, as he got the call on less than a week's notice after Rodolfo Bellato was forced to withdraw.
Costa's kickboxing has come a long way since his early days in the UFC, but I doubt he will want to keep this fight on the feet for too long against Arnold Allen, a punishing outfighter who can sting opponents with combinations. This will likely force the flatfooted "Melky" to force grappling exchanges and slow his opponent down.
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UFC Bets to Consider
Ivan Erslan Wins via KO/TKO (+133)
Tuco Tokkos's only real path to victory is to take fights to the floor. While we have seen Erslan struggle with wrestlers in the past, Tokkos will get tired almost immediately if his opponent can scramble, and Erslan showed good initial submission defense before ultimately being tapped out by Jimmy Crute. I expect the Croatian to have to hold his own in a grappling exchange or two, but Erslan is so aggressive and powerful in space that he won't need long to find the fight-altering blow.
Khaos Williams Wins via KO/TKO (+250)
Back-to-back bouts with grapplers have prevented Williams from showcasing his power, but "The Ox Fighter" is still one of the most dangerous punchers in the division. Nikolay Veretennikov can wrestle as a last resort, but is incredibly sloppy when the fight hits the ground. Williams will doggedly try to return to his feet after being taken down, which will leave Veretenkov tired and open to be hit.
Malcolm Wellmaker Wins via KO/TKO (+145)
Wellmaker may have run into the next big thing at bantamweight in Ethyn Ewing, but he should be able to showcase his fast hands and power against Juan Diaz, who tends to stand stationary and try to roll with shots. "The Machine" may need to spend some time defending takedowns, but I expect him to make his way back to space and find his opponent's chin with combinations.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 117. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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