UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Macau - Song vs Figueiredo
The UFC travels to China for a fight card full of debutants and possibilities. We'll break down every bout on the 13-fight slate, with picks including an always-dangerous light heavyweight and a Muay Thai fighter who is constantly adding to her skill set. Our betting lines come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Jake Matthews ($9,200)
Carlston Harris fights like he has a plane to catch, using his length and power to surprise opponents early. While this will give him an opportunity to hurt Matthews, "The Celtic Kid" has developed an effective counterstriking game to complement his wrestling and lockdown jiu-jitsu. He may need to weather an early storm, but I expect Matthews to ultimately control this bout as the much more skilled fighter.
Kai Asakura ($9,000)
Asakura's move to bantamweight feels a bit desperate after two losses to begin his UFC career, but he's found a nice matchup in Cameron Smotherman, a flatfooted boxer without much power in his hands. The Japanese fighter was always a big flyweight and should be able to use his athleticism to hurt Smotherman with big shots.
Yi Sak Lee ($7,600)
Lee and Luis Felipe Dias are a pair of powerful, chaotic grapplers who will throw themselves into precarious positions in the belief that they will come out on top. Dias is likely the better submission artist here, but he is open to being hit and can be taken down easily, which sways me towards the underdog in what I see as a fairly even fight.
Rei Tsuruya ($8,800)
I regard Tsuruya as one of the most clever and talented grapplers in the sport, as even in a loss to champion Joshua Van, he still managed four takedowns and nearly five minutes of control time. Luis Gurule was able to control his fight against Daniel Barez with powerful right hands, but he will need more than that to best Tsuruya, who is agile and will never stop forcing clinch situations.
Loma Lookboonmee ($8,000)
Loma was taken down five times in her fight with Alexia Thainara, but I'm more interested in the fact that she returned to her feet each time in relatively short order and stopped Thainara's six other attempts. Jaqueline Amorim will stop at nothing to bring this fight to the ground, but we have seen her get tired late in fights, and I think Lookboonmee's ability to make her opponents work will pay dividends late.
Sergei Pavlovich ($8,400)
Pavlovich's fighting style took a much different shape following his knockout loss to Tom Aspinall in 2023. While he still carries knockout power, the Russian fighter is much more content to take the center of the Octagon, pick opponents apart and look for takedowns. Tallison Teixeira is a big and powerful mess who doesn't seem to know how to win if a fighter does not immediately go away, making Pavlovich the only reasonable pick here.
Rodrigo Vera ($8,300)
Kangjie Zhu is a plus athlete with power who has shown no ability to stop takedowns on the regional scene. He won't be able to simply explode back to his feet against Vera, a powerful control grappler who uses his strikes to set up his wrestling opportunities. Zhu will have his chances while this fight is at space, but I expect him to struggle against an aggressive fighter with a coherent game plan.
Cody Haddon ($9,300)
Haddon should be able to easily outwork Aori Qileng, who will brawl in the pocket but can also give minutes away looking for counter shots. We saw how the Mongolian fighter struggled with the grappling of Raul Rosas, and Haddon should be able to match that pace, while giving Qileng plenty to worry about at range.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Deiveson Figueiredo UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes, Su Mudaerji OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes, and Angela Hill UNDER 76.5 Significant Strikes
Each second this fight is at range will be a dangerous one for Figueiredo, who won't be able to compete with the speed or technique of Yadong Song. Expect the former flyweight champion to keep this fight in close quarters as often as possible, which will limit his significant strikes even if this one goes into the later rounds.
Mudaerji's grappling has come a long way since his loss to Mitch Raposo in April of 2025. The Chinese fighter was able to stuff four of five takedowns in his win over Jesus Aguilar, showing urgency to scramble to his feet and disengage from the clinch. If he is able to keep space against Alex Perez, Mudaerji should be able to use his length to tally up significant strikes from range.
The days of Angela Hill being a heavy volume striker appear to be coming to an end. "Overkill" still wants to stay busy with strikes, but can be rendered defensive far too easily, resulting in purely defensive striking off her back foot. Jingnan Xiong will march Hill down from the opening bell, making it difficult for her to generate offense.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Alonzo Menifield Wins via KO/TKO (+500)
This fight can be seen as a toss-up between two brawlers, but the speed and power of Menifield, combined with the fact that Zhang Mingyang has yet to have a UFC fight in which he wasn't the bigger puncher, make this line entirely too wide. Menifield's fight IQ is questionable, and he can break from pressure, but this is a test that Mingyang needs to pass before I can confidently say he is the better fighter here.
Ding Meng Wins via KO/TKO (+165)
Jose Henrique Souza will give ground to his opponent as soon as the fight starts, which often results in him having to battle back from bad situations. I don't think he will be able to turn the momentum if he loses it against Meng, who hits incredibly hard and is a dedicated finisher, having won 28 of his 35 professional MMA bouts by knockout.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Macau. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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