Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 and first fantasy pick from 2019 to 2021, but injuries in 2020 and 2021 left his ranking up for review after two dud years. That didn't last long. Not only has McCaffrey's health cooperated the last two years, he now has the privilege of playing in a top-three offense. Even with sky-high usage the last two years (516 carries, 152 receptions), McCaffrey's efficiency was at/near a league-leading level (5.0 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target). Volume is normally a slight downward pressure on efficiency -- the more a defense expects you, the better they tend to defend you -- but McCaffrey has been unstoppable in San Francisco no matter how aggressively opponents try to slow him. While his previous injury troubles raise the understandable fear of similar problems occurring in the future, McCaffrey's overall track record of availability (79 percent of possible games) is about normal for a heavily used RB. Rather than fretting over McCaffrey's past injuries, the more useful frame would be to consider that injuries are likely the only way for any other running back to catch him in the fantasy rankings. That's a statement that would apply to very few running backs throughout history, as a talent like McCaffrey in a scheme like San Francisco's yields an almost perfect projection.

After consecutive injury-shortened seasons, McCaffrey's value was trending downward entering 2022, and to make matters worse he was stranded in the dysfunctional Carolina offense. By the end of the season, McCaffrey's durability and team concerns turned for the better, as he ended up playing 20 games (three in the playoffs) between Carolina and San Francisco. As great as McCaffrey's production was in his Carolina career, the Panthers offense would often work against him. With Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers it's the exact opposite -- for the first time in his career McCaffrey is playing on Easy Mode. His numbers were fine in the six games before the trade, but he was predictably more explosive with the 49ers, producing 984 yards and eight touchdowns rushing with 64 receptions for 525 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games. Even a calf injury in the playoffs couldn't slow McCaffrey down; he had 299 total yards and three TDs in three weeks and missed only one snap in the NFC Championship Game loss. He turns 27 in June, still has the injury history looming somewhat and figures to cede a portion of the carries to Elijah Mitchell, but if McCaffrey's health cooperates he'll have enough catches and TDs to challenge for overall RB1 status again.

For the second straight year, injuries derailed what might have been a tremendous season for McCaffrey. The 25-year-old played seven games in 2021 and only saw more than 40 snaps in four of them, but in those four contests he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and over 150 scrimmage yards per game. McCaffrey remains the premier pass-catching back in the league while still being dangerous on the ground, and those skills were still in evidence last year. His 2.3 yards per carry after contact was comparable to the likes of Javonte Williams and Aaron Jones, and McCaffrey broke a tackle every 8.3 carries on average, a better rate than Nick Chubb or Najee Harris, albeit with much less volume. None of the injuries McCaffrey has sustained appear to be chronic, so it's possible his luck will turn for the better in 2022. The Panthers added D'Onta Foreman in the offseason to give them another depth option aside from Chuba Hubbard, who didn't impress as a rookie, but if McCaffrey is on the field he'll still dominate the backfield touches and snaps. Apart from health, his biggest concern at this point is the overall quality of the Carolina offense with either Baker Mayfield at quarterback.

After not missing a game through his first three NFL seasons and seeing heavy workloads in the last two, McCaffrey signed a big contract extension last summer and promptly broke down. Ankle, shoulder and thigh injuries limited him to only three weeks of action in 2020, and while he scored six touchdowns in those three contests and was still his usual electric self when he was on the field, it was not what Carolina expected when it made him the highest-paid running back in the league. When he's in top form, McCaffrey is an elite pass-catching option out of the backfield who is tough for defenders to get their hands on in the open field, and new head coach Matt Rhule showed no hesitation in using his superstar at the goal line, as all six of McCaffrey's TDs came from inside the 10-yard line. His per-game workload was essentially the same as his usage under the previous regime, and none of last year's injuries appear to be long-term concerns. The Panthers also did little to add backfield depth apart from fourth-round pick Chuba Hubbard, a strong indication McCaffrey will once again handle the type of role that could lead to 400-plus touches if he plays 15 or 16 games.

McCaffrey had a season for the ages in 2019, posting the third-most scrimmage yards in league history (2,392) and falling only 118 shy of the NFL record. With Cam Newton out most of the year, CMac became the unquestioned focal point of the Panthers' attack, racking up a dizzying 403 touches and topping 100 receptions for the second consecutive campaign. He wasn't just an open-field weapon, though. McCaffrey saw 20 carries inside the 5-yard line, good for second in the NFL, and that goal-line usage led to a career-high 15 rushing TDs. The question heading into 2020 is how much that workload will affect his efficiency. McCaffrey's elite elusiveness and speed have allowed him to avoid a lot of big hits, and he has yet to miss a game in his career, but the history of running backs coming off massive workloads is checkered at best. Even within the context of last year he showed a possible weakness, as he managed just 1.8 YPC after contact, ninth fewest among qualified rushers and a drop from the 2.1 he posted in 2018. That said, Carolina's new-look offense with Teddy Bridgewater under center and former Saints assistant Joe Brady as coordinator should be just as committed to getting McCaffrey the ball in optimal situations, and the front office didn't make him the highest-paid running back in the NFL without expecting plenty of production in return.

When a coach or GM makes a preseason promise to get a specific player more touches, it's often forgotten by about Week 3 as the reasons the player wasn't more involved to begin with become apparent. That wasn't the case with McCaffrey in 2018. Coach Ron Rivera anointed him his bell cow in training camp, and the second-year back thrived with the increased workload, playing 16 games for the second consecutive season while seeing his YPC jump by more than a full yard and his touches increase by 65.5 percent. CMac showed no fear as a runner, attacking holes rather than dancing around (his efficiency rating, which measures how much east-west running a player does for each north-south yard gained, was fifth among qualified RBs) and his elusiveness and speed allowed him to chew up real estate. He fell just short of 2,000 scrimmage yards despite playing behind an offensive line that lost both its starting tackles to injuries in August. The bad news for McCaffrey is that Rivera now says he gave him too many snaps and plans to scale back a bit this season. If he keeps producing when he gets the ball, though, it will be tough to take him off the field when it matters most.

The eighth overall pick in last year's draft, McCaffrey had an uneven but generally productive rookie season. As many of his critics predicted, the 5-11, 205-pound back had trouble making his mark on the ground, posting 3.7 YPC and rushing for less than 10 yards in three games as he ceded carries to Jonathan Stewart. McCaffrey was also as advertised catching passes out of the backfield, showing great hands and an aptitude for finding open space. He caught multiple passes in every game while finishing third among running backs in receptions, trailing only Le'Veon Bell and Alvin Kamara. As a runner, McCaffrey possesses tremendous elusiveness and can set up defenders to take bad angles or get caught up in traffic while he scampers toward freedom. While Stewart is now a Giant, the Panthers replaced him in free agency with Broncos castoff C.J. Anderson, sending a clear signal that they are unwilling to commit to McCaffrey as a three-down workhorse. That limits his upside, but his role in the passing game should only grow with more experience, and he could take on a larger role on early downs if new offensive coordinator Norv Turner tailors the scheme to McCaffrey's strengths.

The versatile McCaffrey was taken eighth overall in this year's draft and found a nearly perfect landing spot with a Panthers offense in desperate need of playmakers. At 6-0, 200, the Stanford product lacks ideal size for an every-down NFL back, but he proved himself as a threat in the open field in his sophomore season when he set an NCAA record for all-purpose yards with 2,019 rushing yards, 645 receiving yards and 1,200 return yards. McCaffrey's soft hands, elusiveness and crisp route-running should make him one of the top receiving options in the pros out of the backfield as soon as Week 1, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him split out wide or lined up in the slot in certain formations, but he can also produce on the ground thanks to his exceptional vision and patience. As the lightning to Jonathan Stewart's thunder, McCaffrey should quickly work his way into a significant role in Carolina and could supplant the veteran as the starter well before the team's Week 11 bye. He might not see many goal-line touches in a backfield that contains Stewart and Cam Newton, but otherwise the sky would seem to be the limit for the second-generation NFL player.