Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
McKinney, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for another edition of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Sometimes majors work out just like we expect, but more often than not, they surprise us. This past week Aronimink, definitely fell into the latter category, as I don't recall anyone predicting Aaron Rai as the winner leading up to season's second major.

How exactly did he pull it off then? Well, to use a popular horse racing term, Rai had the perfect trip. The term "perfect trip" is used in horse racing when a horse essentially has everything go its way. Clean out of the gate, quick to the rail (shortest route) and no congestion (clear pathway) in front of it. Rai's week wouldn't be described as a perfect trip, but his Sunday evolved perfectly for someone looking for his first major.

In a year when a Sunday lead has been more of a burden than a blessing, it makes sense that the eventual winner of the PGA Championship would come from off the pace. It sounds counterintuitive, but I dare say there isn't a single golfer on the PGA Tour that would be better off with the 54-hole lead vs. coming from off the pace when trying to win his first major. The more seasoned golfers, sure, they'll take the lead heading into the final round, but the guys that haven't been there? They don't need the added pressure. That scenario played out on Sunday as the leaders, Alex Smalley and Matti Schmid, were not factors in the end.

As for Rai, I say his trip was perfect for a few reasons. First, he started Sunday in the middle of a large pack, just off the lead. He was close enough to make a move, but he wasn't at the front of the pack, which meant no attention at all.

Second, while he probably wasn't happy about dropping a couple strokes towards the end of his front-nine, it likely freed him up to just play golf and stop thinking about winning a major. Those dropped shots also took him completely off the radar. If there was any attention or pressure before those bogeys, it was long gone after dropping two shots. This ensured that even if Rai were to take the lead, it would happen so late in the round that there wouldn't be a lot of time to think about just hanging onto the lead.

Third, while Rai was getting hot, the rest of the field was spinning its wheels. Nobody outside of Rai made a charge on the back-nine. Rory McIlroy made a charge in the middle of the round, but stalled out down the stretch. Justin Thomas made a charge, but his number was already set at -5 under by the time Rai was making a move. Jon Rahm was the only possible contender down the stretch, but he couldn't find that extra gear and eventually stalled out over the final few holes.

Make no mistake however, even though the field put no pressure on Rai, he was under complete control down the stretch. Rai never looked nervous or unsure, he was simply in the zone. I dare say that even if a playoff had occurred, my money would have been on Rai. Everything about Rai screamed "he's got this", as if he'd been in this spot several times before. Yes, it was a perfect trip, but even if everything breaks your way, you still need to perform and that's exactly what Rai did on Sunday.

Rai picked up his first major on Sunday and as we often do when a golfer wins his first major, we opine on what this means for his future. Will Rai take it to the next level and win more majors? Will he be a one-hit-wonder?  We can speculate all we want, but there's simply no way to tell how a major will change a golfer. Rai seems to have the mindset of a guy who can win more majors, but that's easier said than done. There is so much talent on the PGA Tour right now that it's going to be hard for any golfer outside the top-tier to win more than one major. As we saw this past week, it's not so much about talent or course management, it's really about giving yourself a chance to make a run on Sunday. The best players in the world will give themselves plenty of chances, which is why they'll win more majors. The rest might have a couple opportunities in their entire career. If this is one of only a few chances that Rai will have, then he can rest comfortably knowing that he took full advantage of his opportunity.

Okay, back to the grind and by grind, I mean, the field this week is, um, well, let's put it like this, by the time they tee off on Thursday, Scottie Scheffler might go off as the first golfer since Tiger Woods with less than even odds to win an event.

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+180) 

I wondered if we'd see Scheffler at even odds this week and we're pretty close. He might get bet down to even by the time they go off on Thursday. Scheffler doesn't have his best form entering this week, but does he really need it against this field? That's rhetorical, he does not. Last year he shot -31 under on his way to an eight-stroke victory, so even if he doesn't have his best, be could still win by several strokes. I think his play at the PGA Championship will be a motivator as well. In Scottie's world, it's been a long time since he won and I'm sure he'd like to have that feeling again. Terrible odds this week, but if he starts fast, this thing could be over on Thursday.

Si Woo Kim (13-1)

Kim is in the midst of what will be his best season on the PGA Tour, at least earnings wise. We aren't even to June yet and he's almost cracked the $5 million mark in earnings, something he's previously accomplished just once in his career. Kim got off to a hot start this season, then cooled for a bit, but he got back on track towards the end of April. His two starts in May have not been great however and he might be trending towards another dip in performance. Kim plays a lot of golf, so it's not a surprise when he goes through some ups and downs. His track record here is pretty good, but he's got to get the better of Scheffler to win this week and at 13-1, it's just not worth it.   

Jordan Spieth (16-1)

This is what we're dealing with this week. A guy who hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2022 is the third-favorite this week. Okay, that's a little rough on Spieth, it's not like he's incapable of winning anymore, but his odds this week show you how thin this field got after some late withdrawals this past weekend. As for Spieth's chances this week? They aren't bad, his track record here is pretty solid, he's playing in Texas and the field of course isn't going to provide a lot of challenges, however, Spieth has exactly zero top-10s this season and while he's made the cut in all but one start this season, he hasn't done much on the weekend this season.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

These odds are actually pretty good. Sure, Koepka is still getting used to life back on the PGA Tour, but he's had some moments this season and if there's anyone in the field that isn't going to blink if matched up against Scheffler, it's Koepka. The problem for Koepka this season has been the lack of high-end finishes. He's had some decent runs that have resulted in several top-15s, but he seems to lack that extra gear to get into the mix late on Sunday. We know it's there, we just haven't seen it yet in his return to the PGA Tour. This would be a heck of a time to find that gear, but like I said, it's there and he knows how to win, so maybe it's worth a shot.  

Pierceson Coody (35-1)

Coody started the season hot but has cooled over the past couple months. Coody did not make the cut this past week at the PGA Championship, but he finished in the top-25 in his prior start. I'm not going to knock Coody too much for missing the cut this past week as he doesn't have a lot of major experience. Perhaps getting back to a normal set up will improve his chances.  If I'm 100% honest, I'd probably steer clear of the mid-range this week. It's going to take a monumental effort to beat Scheffler this week, so you might as well shoot for the stars with a true long shot, rather than getting just 35-1.

Ryo Hisatsune (40-1)

I don't think I've ever seen a field drop off this fast. Normally there are 5-10 golfers in the 20-1/33-1 range to choose from for this second category and this week there are two. With that in mind, I had to expand my horizons and find a couple guys further down to put into this second category, and trust me, it wasn't easy. Hisatsune hasn't won on the PGA Tour, which means he's never won while facing Scottie Scheffler, but Hisatsune seems like the type of guy that will get it going during a given week and simply not care what he's against. We saw some of that earlier this season when he was posting top-10s every week. We haven't seen that form much lately, but we know how quickly it can change.

Looking to place a bet for this week's PGA Tour event? Check out the best golf betting sites, featuring comprehensive sportsbook reviews and a summary of new customer bonus offers.

LONG SHOTS

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)  

Call this a hunch play. Jaeger is on my radar this week because he got a decent amount of time on the broadcast this past week, which is always a good sign at a major, right? Jaeger peaked in 2024 when he picked up his first and only PGA Tour win and nearly $4 million in earnings and while we haven't seen that level since, it's likely still there, just waiting for a moment to reveal itself. I thought we might be seeing it this past week as he made a run towards the top of the leader board, but it wasn't in the cards. Maybe it will be in the cards this week.  

Max Greyserman (65-1)             

Sticking with the hot hand theory here. Well, not really hot, but kind of hot. Hey, we're looking at longshots in what will likely be the worst field for a non-opposite event this season. Greyserman, like Jaeger, made some noise this past week and perhaps he can carry that over to this week. Greyserman landed in the top-15 this past week, which is quite the accomplishment considering he hadn't cracked the top-15 anywhere else this season prior to this past week. Maybe this is the start of a hot streak. We're grasping at straws here, I realize that.  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth – Spieth is not someone you'd take at a signature event or a major, so this looks like the best spot for him. It's the only time he'll be under 20-1 the rest of the season, the problem however is that his chances of winning are slim. With that said, his chances of winning any given week are slim. His chances of a runner-up are better this week than they'll be at any point the rest of the season though, so I think this is the spot to use him.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler has let so many OAD players down this season, but he has a chance to pick up an easy win this week. The question is, do you use Scheffler in a non-signature setting? Normally I would say no, but his odds of winning this week are so good that it's tempting. Sure, you want to get the full $3.6 million when you take Scheffler, but no one that's taken him this season has got that, so why not go for what looks like an easy $1.8 million?

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Ryo Hisatsune – Outside of Spieth, this ownership this week is going to be all over the place. Hisatsune looks like one of the better long shot options this week, but then again, none of them look all that good. I would stick with Spieth if you've got him, but after that, it's anyone's guess. I like the way Hisatsune played earlier in the season, so he'd be my pick of the guys a little further down the odds chart.    

Buyer Beware: K.H. Lee – I'm breaking my rule of using a high-profile guy in this spot every week, but honestly, I had no choice. There just aren't enough quality players in this field to pick out one that might play poorly. There is a good reason for having Lee in this spot though as he's a two-time winner here. Can anyone else in the field say that? I didn't think so. The problem with Lee of course is that he's fallen off the map in recent years. He may look like a sneaky good option this week, but he's failed to crack the top-40 in his two most recent starts since his win in 2022. If you're looking to gain ground with a sleeper, I'd look elsewhere.  

My Pick: Jordan Spieth – It's not often that I simply have no other option than to use a certain player, but that's the boat I'm in this week. I've used Scheffler, Kim and Koepka and no one else looks desirable, so I'm going with what will be an insanely popular play in Spieth. Don't get me wrong, I like the pick, but the problem is, almost everyone is going to have him and his chances of winning are slim. The field is thin, which should improve his chances, but I don't see how he gets the better of Scheffler. With that said, a runner-up is certainly possible and I would take that in a heartbeat this week.  

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Scottie Scheffler ($15,600)
Middle Range: Stephan Jaeger ($9,700)
Lower Range: Mark Hubbard ($8,200)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Si Woo Kim – I've used Scheffler and Spieth already in this format, so I'm left with the second-favorite this week, which isn't a bad place to be. Kim is having a great season and even though he's slowed a little, he's yet to miss a cut this season. His track record here is pretty good as well, with four made cuts in five starts.  

Previous Results