The Open Championship Betting Preview

Southport, England
Royal Birkdale Golf Club - Par 70 - 7,223 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $17.75M

Tom Kim provided a huge community win as he picked up his first victory in nearly three years at last week's Genesis Scottish Open, and we stay across the pond for the season's final major championship this week in England. Just over 200 miles south of The Renaissance Club, Royal Birkdale Golf Club plays host to The Open Championship for the first time since 2017, when Jordan Spieth hoisted the Claret Jug on what felt like the top of the world. Now carrying the weight of 14 consecutive major appearances without a single top-10, he's unlikely to contend this time around on a firm-and-fast layout that demands precision, so we'll look for value elsewhere below.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday

The Open Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Collin Morikawa (33-1)

According to both the content industry and the betting market itself, there's no way Matt Fitzpatrick doesn't win this week, so his outright odds have been steamed all the way up to +1750 as of Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, I still think there's plenty of value at half the cost in the mid-30s, beginning with Morikawa, who's coming off a solo-third place finish at the Travelers Championship where he paced the Signature Event in both GIR and total birdies while also ranking second in SG: Approach and driving accuracy. As a bonus, he's sixth in putting from inside 10 feet over his last 16 rounds.

Viktor Hovland (34-1)

Just a couple weeks after taking down World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at the aforementioned Travelers, Hovland ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green en route to a T13 result at the Genesis Scottish Open, where he also finished top-5 in both Distance From Edge of Fairway and overall proximity. Chipping can be a concern for Hovland, but he's actually 17th in around-the-green proximity this season.

Robert MacIntyre (35-1)

MacIntyre has been guided by his iron play on the way to back-to-back top-10s at the Travelers Championship and the Genesis Scottish Open, ascending to first in SG: APP over his past eight rounds after leading the field at The Renaissance Club in this almighty metric. He's a perfect 6-for-6 in cuts made throughout his career at The Open Championship, highlighted by a trio of top-8 efforts.

The Open Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Russell Henley (+450)

I'm not convinced Henley has the guts to actually win a major championship, but a top-10 ceiling is evident, and his stellar course fit is impossible to ignore. He's No. 1 on the PGA Tour in both FIR percentage and DFEF this year, and that pinpoint accuracy should especially be rewarded at Royal Birkdale.

Tom Kim (+485)

It feels weird to type this out, but there are few, if any, better combinations of form and fit than Kim across the pond right now, but his odds haven't yet surged anywhere close to un-bettable ranges. The Genesis Scottish Open champ's irons have been absolutely dialed since mid-May, and he just led the field at The Renaissance Club in each of bogey avoidance, DFEF and scrambling en route to victory as well.

The Open Championship Bets: Top-40 Wagers

J.J. Spaun (+100)

Spaun tied for 23rd in his Open Championship debut at Royal Portrush last year, but he now ranks top-5 on Tour in both SG: APP and proximity. Considering we only need a top-40 at even money, the strength of Spaun's ball striking can certainly carry him through a couple short-game mistakes over the course of 72 holes, though we also saw him win a U.S. Open at one-under-par.

Jacob Bridgeman (+196)

Bridgeman has rebounded from a missed cut at the PGA Championship by gaining 0.64 strokes ball striking and 0.91 strokes total per round over his last 16 rounds, highlighted by a T11 at the RBC Canadian Open where he ranked sixth in SG: APP. Bridgeman is accurate off the tee and he's been one of the best putters on Tour this season, so I'm less worried about his inexperience as an Open Championship debutant.

The Open Championship Bets: Tournament Matchup

Brian Harman (-114) over Alex Noren

I want both a pro-Harman and an anti-Noren stance somewhere in my portfolio this week, so a friendly -114 price on their tournament matchup sets us up for a simple way to make that happen. Noren is being overvalued due to seven career top-25s across 12 Open Championship appearances, but I'm more interested in his recent form, and the Swede's tee-to-green play has been completely broken amidst a MC-MC-T55-MC stretch from the RBC Canadian Open through the Genesis Scottish Open. He's lost a whopping 1.77 strokes on approach per round within this frame. Meanwhile, Harman remains a steady fairway finder, who also just ranked sixth in overall proximity at The Renaissance Club.

The Open Championship Bets: Region

Viktor Hovland - Top Nordic (+305)

I'm of the belief that Hovland should be the favorite in this market over Ludvig Aberg (+265). After Nicolai Hojgaard (+580) and Kristoffer Reitan (+660), nobody else is remotely close to Hovland's class, and I already mentioned a Noren (+700) fade.

The Open Championship Bets: Nationality of Winner

European Winner - Yes (+112)

If you think Scheffler's drought continues, Chris Gotterup is the only other non-Euro inside 30-1 that's in any type of admirable form, with Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young enduring mini-slumps. Meanwhile, the top of the board is littered with high-upside Europeans from Rory McIlroy (+830) down to Justin Rose (41-1). You're also gaining access to both Fitzpatrick and hometown hero Tommy Fleetwood inside 18-1.

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