Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: The Open Championship

The Open Championship

Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Southport, England

We have a major in play this week, so as is custom, I'll be brief when recapping last week's event. Two things I want to point out though, the first is Scottie Scheffler and his missed cut. I'd be lying if I said I know what's going on with Scheffler and again, he's not fallen off a cliff this season, heck, he has great numbers overall, but we've seen some things this season that we haven't seen for a few years.

Second, and more importantly, the week after effect is still a valid reason to pick a player. See Tom Kim this past week. 86-1 and yet, I had a feeling he could win, if for no other reason than I used him as my OAD pick the week prior. The universe has a wicked sense of humor.

Okay, let's look at the storylines for this week:

Scottie Scheffler – Always have to start with Scheffler, this time however we've got something a little more interesting to look at entering a major and that of course is the missed cut. Does it mean anything? Probably not, but it's been a long time since he missed a cut, so perhaps there's something bubbling under the surface?

Rory McIlroy – He's past the major slump, now can he continue to build on his career total? For the first time in a while, he might actually be the favorite, not by the odds, but by public perception.

Bryson DeChambeau – Heading into the season the talk was about DeChambeau getting another major. After his performance at the first three majors, we're left wondering if he can make a cut at a major.

First-time winners – The list of quality players without a major continues to grow as more players enter the conversation. Golfers like Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland have been there for a while, but now we have to lump the likes of Cameron Young, Sam Burns and Chris Gotterup into the mix. Will we have a first-time major winner this week?

The random Euro – It seems like we usually get a random European player who makes a charge on Sunday at the Open Championship, but that didn't happen this past year. Do we get one this year? If history is any indication, I'd say yes, we'll see some name up near the top on the weekend that doesn't look like the others.

The course – As always, the course is going to be interesting for those of us that watch golf in the states. Royal Birkdale, like many links-style courses, puts a premium on hitting the fairway as there is a lot of trouble for wayward tee shots and I'm not talking about thick rough that most players can gouge their way out of, I'm talking about grass up to your knees and mounds that force the golfer into an awkward stance or provide no path to the green. Keep it straight this week, or you will pay.

Honestly, we're a little light on the storylines to start the week, but more will emerge as the week plays out.

This is always one of the most interesting weeks of the year and I have no doubt we'll all be entertained once again this year.

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FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (7-1) 

I mentioned this past week that we haven't seen odds as high as 6-1 on Scheffler in quite a while and one missed cut later, he we're are at 7-1. I can't explain the missed cut this past week, perhaps Scheffler was looking ahead to this week, but whatever the case, we're starting to see some value with his odds. It's still not great, anything less than 10-1 is hard to swallow, but Scheffler is still the best golfer in the world and he's still having a great year by anyone's standard other than his own. At this price, I'd certainly give him a look.  

Rory McIlroy (+850)

With Scheffler's odds coming up, McIlroy finally breaks into single digits. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see McIlroy go off as the favorite come Thursday. The reason is that he already has a major win this season, his form looks pretty goof right now and he played well this past week. Even during McIlroy's major slump, he managed to play well at this event almost every year. He finished T4 here in 2017, so he knows how to get around this course and course knowledge this week is perhaps more important than at other majors.    

Tommy Fleetwood (15-1)

I'm a little surprised that Fleetwood is third on the list this week, not because he doesn't deserve to be up in the top group, but because Rahm is usually a favorite of the public. That and Rahm finished runner-up at the PGA Championship earlier this year. Sure, he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but this course might suit him better. Anyhow, we're talking about Fleetwood now and if I'm being honest, I'm not quite sure why he's the third-favorite this week. His form is okay entering this week, but nothing special. His track record at this event is okay as well, he has a couple top-5s, but he's been better at other majors over the years. He finished T27 here in 2017, so he does have some course knowledge, but I'm just not sure he should be ahead of Rahm or Schauffele to start the week.

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THE NEXT TIER

Matt Fitzpatrick (15-1)

Fitzpatrick seems to be a popular play this week, and I can't argue with that. The biggest knock on Fitzpatrick this week is that he doesn't have a lot of high-end finishes at this event. Just one top-10 here in 10 starts. He played here in 2017 and he made the cut but could only manage a T44. Fitzpatrick's game has come a long way since 2017 however and he appears ready to win another major. He's in the midst of one of his best seasons as a professional, but in order to top the list, he'll need to win this week. His form looks solid entering the week as he posted a T4 at the Travelers a few weeks ago, followed by a T3 at the Scottish Open this past week.    

Xander Schauffele (27-1)

Outside of Scheffler, Schauffele has probably been the most consistent player at the majors over the past few years. He hasn't missed a cut at a major since the 2022 Masters and in those 18 starts, he's finished outside the top-20 just once. He also won two of those events. He hasn't been in the mix all that often outside of those two wins, but he's consistently giving himself a chance to contend and that's all you can ask for. If nothing else, if you place a win wager on Schauffele this week, you'll be watching closely on the weekend.

Viktor Hovland (30-1)

Though Hovland has yet to win a major, he's had a couple close calls. The problem with Hovland, is that he's either ready to roll when the week starts, or he's not. He's the anti-Schauffele in that sense as he has five top-10s in his past 17 majors starts, but he also has six MCs. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open this year, but finished T18 at the Masters. His track record at the Open Championship has been a bit more consistent than the other majors though as he's missed just one cut in five starts. The reason he might be in-play this week though is his form. He won the Travelers Championship two starts back and finished T13 at the Scottish Open this past week. He did close with an impressive 64 this past week though, so perhaps some momentum heading in.

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LONG SHOTS

Aaron Rai (60-1)            

The odds on Rai this week indicate that the most people see his win at the PGA Championship as a fluke. I'm not convinced that Rai will ever win a second major, but I think he deserves a little more respect than this. Though Rai didn't contend during any of his first 12 major starts, he had shown a lot of improvement prior to his win in May. In 2025, Rai made all four cuts at the majors and finished no worse than T34. He's made the cut in the first three majors this season and even backed-up his win at the PGA Championship with a T11 at the U.S. Open. It's a long shot that he picks up a second major this season, but I think he has a better shot than a lot of guys in front of him on the odds chart.     

Jordan Spieth (100-1)     

Spieth has not shown us anything over the past couple years to make us think he can win this week, but if you look at his overall track record at this event, and especially at Birkdale, then maybe it's possible. Amazingly, Spieth has never missed a cut at an Open Championship and that's over 12 starts. He won here in 2017, which seems like a lifetime ago, but since this can be a quirky course, perhaps that's a bigger edge than initially thought. Form is the issue of course, he hasn't looked like that golfer from 2017 very often over the past few years, but you never know.      

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Rory McIlroy – I think a lot of OAD players have been saving McIlroy all season for this spot and I can't blame them. McIlroy has shown good form all season and he seems ready to win another Open Championship. I have to think that after winning the Masters, this championship moved back to the top of his list. Whether that added motivation matters in the end, I can't say, but it's always good to extra motivation.       

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Xander Schauffele – Schauffele might not be the best win option this week, but if you're looking for someone with a high floor, then Schauffele is your guy. As mentioned earlier, Schauffele has been extremely efficient at the majors over the past five years and there's no reason to think that will change this week. The only question for Schauffele entering this week is his current form. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open this past week and played poorly at the Travelers. It's odd for a player as consistent as Schauffele to play poorly in two consecutive starts, but I have faith that he'll figure it out.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Aaron Rai – Rai seems to be overlooked this week, and I'm not sure why. As mentioned earlier, he's been pretty consistent at the majors over the past couple years and now he enters his first Open Championship as a major winner. It seems like there are a lot of things in his favor this week. Sure, he's never fared better than T19 at the Open Championship, but he only has a few starts as a professional under his belt. Id be surprise if Rai weren't at least in the mix on the weekend at some point.

Buyer Beware: Ludvig Aberg – Aberg was a popular pick at the majors earlier in the season, largely because he was playing so well, but now that his form has fallen off a bit, he doesn't seem like a good play any longer. Aberg missed the cut this past week and failed to crack the top-50 in his previous start at the Travelers Championship. In fact, Aberg hasn't posted a top-15 since mid-May and now he comes to the major where he's had the least amount of success in his short career. Aberg has just two starts at the Open Championship, one of which resulted in a T23 and one a missed cut. If his form were better entering the week, this pick might make me nervous, but as it is, I won't worry much about Aberg making a run this week.  

My Pick: Wyndham Clark – I don't have a lot of guys left to use at this point. Most of my top picks have already been used, so I'm left with just a few options that look good. Clark is not someone that comes to mind when you think of golf in Europe, but he has had some moments on links-style courses. One of which came this past year when he tied for 4th at the Open Championship. Keep in mind, that result came while his form was nowhere near the level it is now. He played well this past week at the Scottish Open, so I'm thinking he's still got the form that won the U.S. Open this past month. He's not my top option, but he's the best that I have available and he's by no means a throw away pick this week.     

Previous Results

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FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,900)
Middle Range: Wyndham Clark ($10,200)
Lower Range: Brian Harman ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Rory McIlroy – No reason to hold back now. Luckily I've got a big gun to use in this spot. McIlroy has missed three cuts in his Open Championship career, but he's made 13 cuts and he made the cut at this venue in 2017. As for majors, McIlroy has made the cut in 20 of his past 22 starts.      

Previous Results