PGA Championship One and Done Picks
The 108th edition of the PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club just outside Philadelphia. The Donald Ross design has played host to some big events over the years. It hosted the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, the 1977 U.S. Amateur, the 2003 Senior PGA Championship, the 2010-11 AT&T National, the 2018 BMW Championship and the 2020 KPMG Women's PGA Championship.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be looking to defend his title after he ran away from the field by five strokes last year at Quail Hollow. Rory McIlroy will be looking to win the Wanamaker trophy for the third time (2012, 2014) and is coming off his second straight Masters victory last month. Scheffler and McIlroy have won four of the last five major championships.
The PGA Championship is considered by many to be the best field in golf. The other 154 players teeing it up at Aronimink will certainly give the two top ranked players all they can handle. Cameron Young comes in as the No. 3 ranked player having won THE PLAYERS Championship and the Cadillac Championship within the last two months. No. 4 ranked Matt Fitzpatrick has also picked up three victories himself over the same timespan. Young leads a strong group of contenders looking for their first major championship this week including Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Chris Gotterup and Ludvig Aberg.
Another big storyline to watch will be Jordan Spieth who is just a PGA Championship away from the Career Grand Slam. He would be the seventh player to win all four professional major championships, and be apart of the exclusive club McIlroy joined last year with his first Masters breakthrough. Spieth has been struggling to put everything together at the same time this year. He has not won a major championship since the 2017 Open Championship and has not won a PGA Tour event since the 2022 RBC Heritage.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Aronimink Golf Club (7,394 yards, par 70)
- Location: Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
- Purse: $19 million -- $3.42 million to winner
- Defending PGA Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-11) at Quail Hollow
- 2025 PGA Championship Scoring Average at Quail Hollow: 72.51 (+1.51)
- Average Winning Score Last 5 PGA Championships: -10.4
- 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink Winner: Keegan Bradley (-20)
A fair amount of players in this field have seen Aronimink at least once before, as it hosted the BMW Championship back in 2018. That event saw Keegan Bradley win in a playoff over Justin Rose at a whopping 20-under-par. It should be noted that it was very wet that particular week and led to some great scoring. We are expected to get some rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, which will soften the course a bit, but by the weekend everything should dry out and we should see some of the firmness back in the greens.
Aronimink is one of the shorter PGA Championship venues we have seen in recent years. Only three par-4s measure over 470 yards in length. Most of the fairways are quite generous and there are very little trees that players will have to deal with. Because of the way the holes are bunkered and the number of shorter par-4s, players can elect to hit a lot of different clubs off the tee. That said, some other players have said this is a course where you blast driver everywhere and go and find it. Nevertheless, players are going to have quite a few wedge and short-iron opportunities this week, so the top players with those clubs should have an ability to separate.
The main defense of this course are these very large and undulating greens. Pin placement will be critical for players to see where to and where to not miss it. There are some extreme falloffs on these greens where missing it there would leave a near impossible up-and-down. Again, sharp iron play will be key to put yourself in good positions.
Putting should also be very important. The last two winners of PGA Tour events at Aronimink both led the field for the week in SG: Putting. They were also both among the leaders in scrambling. Because of the sheer size and movement of the greens, 3-putts will be very common this week. Good lag putters and those who excel inside of 10 feet should be rewarded at this PGA Championship.
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PGA Championship: One and Done Picks
This seems like the type of venue that Fleetwood could potentially pick up his first major championship. It's not an overly long course and playing from the fairway is going to be important. It also requires pinpoint accuracy on approach, particularly with the wedges in short irons. That's really Fleetwood's calling card. The Englishman is also one of the best in the short-game department at fourth in SG: Around-the-Green and 14th in scrambling. He has also gained strokes on the greens in his last four starts. Fleetwood has five top-10 finishes this season and scored a T8 at Aronimink back in 2018 where he was one of the leaders in SG: Putting. --Ryan Andrade
This pick checks all the boxes this week. First, I lean towards LIV players at the majors (well, just the good ones) because I can only use them in four spots, so if there's a good reason to use one at a major, then I'll do it. Second, DeChambeau's track record at this event is very strong. No, he hasn't won a PGA Championship, but he's finished in the top-4 four times. That includes finishing runner-up in each of the last two PGA Championships. Yes, different courses, but similar set-ups and often similar style courses. Third, he's finally under the radar entering a major. I can't remember the last time that he was among the favorites at a major and while that might not always matter, I dare say that it's always better to have less attention on you than more attention, even if said golfer loves attention. Attention equals pressure at a major, and pressure is rarely a good thing in golf. --Greg Vara
Not only can you gain leverage on the massive contingent that earned just $101K from Rahm's disappointing T38 as a chalky selection at Augusta National, but I reckon this time around more folks will be turned off by his Masters performance and/or electing to save him for one of the final two majors of the season. However, he immediately rebounded with a six-shot win in Mexico City, and Rahm paces LIV Golf in SG: Approach by a mile in 2026. The iron-play upside should have a chance to shine on what seems to be shaping up as a second-shot test at Aronimink. --Bryce Danielson
Nobody is playing better right now than Young. He ranks second on Tour in SG: Total this year and owns a pair of wins plus a T3 at Augusta across his last five starts. A T3 at the 2022 PGA Championship shows he can contend at this event, and his current form suggests his first major title is just around the corner. --Lauren Jump
Saving Schauffele for one of the majors makes a lot of sense as he's finished in the top-10 in more than half of them. On top of that, the two-time major winner and 2024 PGA Championis a nice pivot away from McIlroy, Scheffler and the chalky LIV combo of DeChambeau and Rahm. I'm not going to read too much into Schauffele's disappointing T60 at Quail Hollow last week, where he had his worst short-game performance of the season. Prior to that, he posted four consecutive T12 results or better and ranks in the top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, approach and bogey avoidance this year. --Ryan Pohle
You can't do much better at the PGA than what DeChambeau's done the past three years: T4-2-T2. He's coming off a missed cut at the Masters and it's also fair to wonder how he and the other LIV golfers will respond to the reported demise of their league. But overall, DeChambeau's been the most successful LIV golfer in majors. This continues the plan to go with LIV golfers whenever possible in majors in OAD pools, since they can't be used in regular PGA Tour events. --Len Hochberg
Things may be a bit chaotic for DeChambeau at the moment with LIV Golf in flux, but there are only so many chances to use LIV golfers, and with DeChambeau finishing T4-2-T2 in the last three editions of this event and his U.S. Open and Open Championship records both being a bit spotty I want to deploy him here. DeChambeau dealt with a wrist injury recently, but he went 64-66 over the weekend at LIV Golf Virginia, so that's no longer a concern. Think of all the YouTube views you will get if you win, Bryson! --Kevin O'Brien
PGA Championship: One and Done Fades
Koepka in theory makes a lot of sense this week. He's a three-time winner of the PGA Championship, he's leading the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and he is starting to finish more consistently. That said, I simply can't trust him right now on and around these very difficult greens. Koepka ranks 158th in scrambling, 149th in SG: Putting and 139th in 3-putt avoidance. That's just not going to get it done in a major championship. At 82nd on DataGolf with three missed cuts in nine starts this year, I don't think Koepka qualifies as a player you need to use at a major or Signature Event despite the face he comes into Aronimink with the 10th-best odds. --Ryan Andrade
I hate to do this because I've always liked Young's game and his potential, but I think this is all happening a bit too fast. There's just too much steam on Young right now. It's one thing to get rolling outside a major, but major pressure is so much different than the normal week-to-week pressure. I don't think Young will suddenly forget how to play golf this week, he'll play well, but I don't think he'll be a factor on Sunday. He did play well at the 2022 PGA Championship, but that's been his only good finish in four tries at this event. That's not what this is about though, this is about the huge step up from even The PLAYERS to a major event and the fact that this has all happened so fast for Young. --Greg Vara
Rory McIlroy proclaimed in his press conference Tuesday morning that there won't be much strategy off the tee at Aronimink, introducing the notion that players can just bash drivers around the yard and figure it out from there. As much as that sounds like a prime setup for DeChambeau, I'm still not convinced this is an ultra-favorable spot given his frequent stretches of pedestrian iron play and struggles out of penal rough, especially while dealing with wrist and shoulder injuries. The betting market seems to agree, with his outright odds drifting to the mid-20s range at some shops. From a macro strategy perspective, he's a fine click if you're just looking to tread water near the top of your standings while ensuring you're not burning a PGA Tour eligible player, but I definitely wouldn't eat any Bryson chalk if you're trying to make a move from further back in the pack this week. --Bryce Danielson
Between LIV's uncertain future and his DP World Tour negotiations, the distractions were evident at Augusta, where Rahm opened with a 78 and never recovered. Only two top-10 finishes across his last 10 PGA Championship appearances suggest this event hasn't been a reliable spot for him. --Lauren Jump
I know that Rahm and DeChambeau are tempting but they also come with high ownership. And since Rahm left for LIV, he's failed to post a top-5 in a major across eight appearances. That's a bit surprising considering he's consistently played well over the last two and a half years but whether it be pressure or less repititions, the results haven't followed on the biggest stage. On top of that, this is the worst major to use Rahm as it's the only one he doesn't have multiple top-5s at. I'd advise avoiding the temptation as there will still be two good opportunities to use him. --Ryan Pohle
Rahm's struggles in major championships since joining LIV Golf have been well-documented. Last year, he began to put that narrative to rest with a top-15 at the Masters and top-10s at the PGA and U.S. Open. But then last month at Augusta, he was a non-factor once again in finishing 38th. Not saying he will finish 38th again, or worse, just that he won't match his price/odds. --Len Hochberg
I passed over Rose at No. 15 in a snake draft held with friends, so I suppose that qualifies him for this section. I get the track record both at Aronimink and in PGA Championships in general, but his results here weren't exactly recent and he missed the cut at last year's PGA, so I'm discarding those in favor of recent form. Rose has popped several times both this season and last, but when he hasn't things have not been pretty. Plus, he is still adjusting to his new clubs and was still making selections as recently as Tuesday. No thanks. --Kevin O'Brien
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