Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

The last of four regular season PGA Tour events in Texas concludes this week with the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth. The tournament has been held at Colonial Country Club since 1946, making it the longest continuous host venue on Tour. Despite not being a signature event, seven of the top-20 players in the OWGR are teeing-it-up, highlighted by tournament favorite Ludvig Aberg at +970. Last year, Ben Griffin (60-1) captured his first individual victory by one stroke over Matti Schmid. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday

Course Overview

Par 70, 7,289 yards

These are the average rankings of the Charles Schwab Challenge winners since 2021:

• SG: Off-the-Tee: 14.0
• SG: Approach: 12.0
• SG: Around-the-Green: 38.2
• SG: Putting: 4.4
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.0
• Driving Distance: 15.8
• Driving Accuracy: 30.2

Coming off a 30-under winning score that saw multiple players on 59-watch last week, Colonial will provide a much different test than TPC Craig Ranch, where the winning score is typically in the 10-to-12 under range. Potential soft conditions and light winds expected may yield some lower scores than usual, but this is still a difficult venue nonetheless. Renovated in 2024 to remove some bunkers and trees near greens, players are faced with several dogleg holes and narrow, tree-lined fairways that will have golfers taking less than driver often. 

Most known for the 'Horrible Horseshoe', holes 3-5 are a challenging stretch early on that has a 250-yard par-3 sandwich in-between a pair of 475-yard par-4s. In addition, there are only two par-5s, one which plays nearly 650 yards and limits the amount of scoring opportunities around here. Overall, I'll be looking towards accurate drivers and good wedge players from 100-150 yards. Due to the difficulty of hitting greens in regulation at a high clip, it's a good week to look at those that avoid bogeys and excel with their short game as well.

Course History

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Colonial over the last five years (minimum eight rounds played):

• Davis Riley: 68.7
• Mac Meissner: 69.0
• Tony Finau: 69.2
• Pierceson Coody: 69.3
• Ben Griffin: 69.4
• Harry Hall: 69.4

Not a name we often find on statistical lists, 2024 champion Riley has been hit-or-miss at Colonial with a pair of missed cuts and a top-5 in addition to his win. He's done it with his iron play, gaining 1.51 strokes on approach per round across 12 career rounds. The downside, however, is that he's 130th in the FedExCup Standings with eight missed cuts across 13 events. A more realistic possibility to win on this list is Hall (41-1 odds), who has gone T3-MC-T6 across his three appearances here. Following up on his breakthrough 2025 campaign, Hall hasn't quite maintained the same level but has been solid with three top-10s - two of which have come in signature events. With his solid wedge game and excellent short game, he's a great course fit for Colonial. 

Current Form

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:

• J.J. Spaun: 1.08
• Ludvig Aberg: 1.08
• Alex Smalley: 0.73
• Andrew Putnam: 0.68
• Andrew Novak: 0.64

Speaking of players trying to maintain their 2025 play, Spaun hasn't been quite as consistent this year but does have a win (in Texas) and a top-5 in his most recent signature event. As we can see, iron play has fueled those results, where he ranks eighth in SG: Approach this year. Given his overall results here with one top-10 and four missed cuts in six appearances, consider him a boom-or-bust play as the seventh betting favorite. A bit farther down the odds board we find Putnam (69-1), who checks a lot of boxes when it comes to course fit. In addition to his iron play being in good form, his elite accuracy and around the green play while being one of the shortest hitters on Tour makes him jump out. The 37-year-old has two top-5 finishes this year. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Outright Picks

Russell Henley (20-1)

Henley is one of the shorter guys on Tour, but we know this is one of the handful of venues where that's not a huge factor. He's traditionally skipped this event having only played it twice in his career, most recently finishing T16 in 2023. Henley has three top-10s this year, highlighted by a T3 at The Masters.

Hideki Matsuyama (31-1)

Matsuyama has just one top-20 over the last three months but with that often comes value. He's played four non-signature events this year and has posted a top-15 in three of them. Matsuyama ranks 20th in SG: Approach and is elite around the green.

Gary Woodland (48-1)

Woodland continues to have a quality season and if the Tour Championship was held today, he'd be in it. He's gained over a shot per round with his long game in five of the last seven tournaments. Will the putter get hot like it was in Houston? Woodland has three top-15s here in five appearances since 2020. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Chris Kirk (+540)

This is historically a place Kirk has played well at with a win and five other top-15 finishes. The downside of course is that his last top-10 came in back-to-back events last August. He's played better than his results would indicate as he ranks 36th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Max McGreevy (+680)

McGreevy stands out in this price range statistically, ranking in the top-45 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach and is 24th from tee to green. The putter has held him back, but we saw him finish runner-up in Sea Island to close last year when he found some form on the greens.

Brandt Snedeker (+1050)

At 45 years- old, Snedeker has found a resurgence and is playing the best golf we've seen from him since 2021. He won the alternate-event Myrtle Beach Classic earlier this month and similar to Henley, his lack of length isn't a detriment at Colonial.

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Sungjae Im (-118) over Michael Thorbjornsen

Unfortunately, I had Wyndham Clark as a matchups bet last week instead of in the outrights section. Perhaps that's a good sign for Im's chances. He's posted three top-15s in six appearances at Colonial and has a pair of top-10s across his last three starts. I like him over Thorbjornsen, who is making his event debut and trending in the wrong direction having missed the cut in his last three full field events. 

Charles Schwab Challenge Bets: First Round Leader

Sam Ryder (98-1)

Longshot alert with Ryder, who is going off in the morning wave Thursday. He got off to a good start in San Antonio last month with a top-10 opening round and his two best results have come over his last three starts. Ryder is prone to spike putting as well to help yield a low round.

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