Jordan Lawlar

Lawlar had a really rough start to the minor-league season (.629 OPS, 31.7 K% in his first 32 games), but from May 23 on, he slashed .323/.411/.557 with 15 home runs, 26 steals on 30 attempts and a 16.1 K% in 300 at-bats across Double-A and Triple-A. He doesn't have elite raw power (109-mph max exit velocity at Triple-A), but Lawlar is great at barreling balls to the pull side, so he could end up with plus game power in his prime. Arizona promoted him to the majors in early September, and he played sparingly for the contending Diamondbacks, although all of his action came at shortstop. His numbers in 34 MLB plate appearances are awful: 32.4 K%, .129 AVG and zero extra-base hits. However, his smooth defense and elite speed (99th percentile sprint speed) were on display, and he won't turn 22 until July, so the upper-level minors performance is the main thing to focus on when projecting ahead. Lawlar, the sixth-overall pick in 2021, clearly projects as the team's shortstop of the future, but with Geraldo Perdomo coming off his best season (2.7 fWAR), there is some uncertainty about what the infield hierarchy will look like in early 2024.

Lawlar's Arizona Fall League was cut short after he suffered a fractured scapula, but on the whole, he showed superstar potential in his first full season and solidified himself as a top-five fantasy prospect. Considered by some evaluators to be the best prospect in the 2021 draft, Lawlar only played two games in complex ball that year due to a shoulder injury, but he climbed from Single-A to Double-A in 2022, showcasing elite athleticism, plus power and an advanced command of the strike zone. The 20-year-old shortstop hit .303/.401/.509 with a 25.1 K%, 12.4 BB%, 16 home runs and 39 steals in 100 games across four levels. He should open the year at Double-A and could be on the Corbin Carroll path, with a late-2023 big-league debut on the table if he performs as expected.

A viable commitment to Vanderbilt led to Arizona giving Lawlar the richest signing bonus ($6,713,300) of any hitter in last year's draft, despite the fact he was the fourth hitter off the board at sixth overall. A smooth, graceful athlete bursting with loud tools, Lawlar could play anywhere on the field, but he is a shortstop by trade. A plus runner with a chance to develop above-average power from the right side, the high schooler from Texas has a chance to be a 20-20 producer at peak. Lawlar has hit over .400 every year, but there have been some short stretches where strikeouts were an issue. One small knock on Lawlar is that he turned 19 on July 1. As with any prep hitter, we won't know how the hit tool will translate against pro pitching until he gets that opportunity, and he only played in two complex-level games (going 2-for-5 with a double, a steal, a walk and a strikeout) before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. The surgery to repair a posterior labrum tear carries a recovery timeline that makes him questionable for the start of spring training. His defensive potential will keep the pressure off his bat, and his power/speed upside will keep him highly ranked on fantasy lists as long as he's making contact at a solid clip.