John Deere Classic One and Done Picks
The John Deere Classic might not always have the star power as some other events on the PGA Tour, but it is has its own identity that makes it unique. It starts with excellent branding and those iconic tractor tee boxes and yellow flags. You can always tell what event you are watching when you see those. They also seem to embrace the birdie barrage and low scoring. TPC Deere Run has undergone just minor changes over the years and tournament organizers don't try and trick up the golf course. If someone shoots 25-under good for them. Lastly, the John Deere Classic is known for giving young players an opportunity to play on the PGA Tour. Each year some of the best amateurs and collegiate stars get the opportunity to tee it up with some of the Tour's best. This year will be no different for the likes of Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout and Mason Howell.
While this is a big opportunity week for many young players trying to gain experience and veterans hoping to make a push towards the FedExCup Playoffs, the $8.8 million purse is certainly lighter than we have seen in recent weeks on the PGA Tour. Picking the winner and the $1.5+ million that comes with it could help you gain some positions, but outside of a winning check there likely won't be a ton of movement in the OAD standings after this event. That said, the little downside should create a chance for OAD players to be aggressive and potential take a swing on a long shot hitting. We've seen quite a few throughout the years at this event, like Brian Campbell last year who won at 350-1 odds.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Deere Run (7,327 yards, par 71)
- Location: Silvis, IL
- Purse: $8.8 million -- $1.584 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Brian Campbell (-15)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 69.435 (-1.565)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: -5
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Years: -21.4
TPC Deere Run calls on a lot of the same skills that were asked last week at TPC River Highlands. You need to be in the fairways to attack, the greens are on the smaller end and you have to make a ton of putts to win. The grasses are also pretty similar on both courses, although Deere Run features no poa on the greens. Birdies will need to be made with regularity to keep pace and bogeys will feel like doubles at times just as they were at the Travelers.
This 7,300-yard course will play quite short this week with temperatures expected to get into the 90s throughout the tournament. Seven of the par-4s also measure 435 yards or less in length which should create a ton of wedge opportunities for these players. You think back at some of the guys that have played well here over the years like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Jordan Spieth. All three of them are known for their wedge play, so proximity from 100-150 yards should be critical. We also likely will see some storms pass through throughout the tournament which should keep the greens very receptive and force players to have to dial in their spin control.
At the end of the day, however, this is a course where it's not hard to give yourself a lot of birdie opportunities, but the real separator is those that are able to convert on those at the highest rate. Your top putters over the last handful of starts and top putters on bentgrass should have a great opportunity to emerge from the pack at this course.
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John Deere Classic: One and Done Picks
There could be a Koivun wave and I was tempted. If it comes down to Koivun and Griffin on Sunday, I want to change my pick. Seriously, Griffin did not have a great start to this season. But in his past seven starts, he's had two third-place finishes, a 10th and three other top-20s, two of which came in majors. Griffin's approach play remains pretty bad -- he ranks 113th -- but he's eighth in SG: Around-the-Green and 25th in Putting. Hey, however you get it done as long as you. --Len Hochberg
Not only is he coming off a third-place effort at the U.S. Open, but Kim also ranks No. 1 among this field in SG: Approach and second in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds. Additionally, he gained 6.53 strokes with the flat stick throughout his past two starts. A missed cut in his John Deere Classic debut last year hopefully caps his popularity, while course fit and recent form are much more important than a 36-hole sample from 12 months ago. --Bryce Danielson
There are certainly better looking options on paper, but I have to wonder if some of those names might be looking ahead to next week and the week after. Kim however looked really sharp at the U.S. Open a couple weeks ago and should seize this opportunity to build on that momentum. It's been a bit of a rough patch for Kim since 2024, but he looked like his "old" self at the U.S. Open a couple weeks ago and I think he might be on the brink of something big. It's certainly a gamble, to take someone off of one good outing, but if you were to gamble, this would be the spot, as nobody outside of the winner is making a lot of money this week. --Greg Vara
Coody to me is in a very similar position this week that Davis Thompson was in back when he won this thing in 2024 at a record score of 28-under-par. Thompson was 25-1 that week, Coody is 29-1 this week. Thompson was a bomber looking for his first win who had stretch of a lot of solid finishes leading up to it, Coody is a very similar profile of player who is on a good run right now also seeking PGA Tour win No. 1. Coody has been putting great recently and is also No. 1 in this field in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens over the last two years. He has the type of game to play well anywhere, but he has performed at his best in fields and courses like this where he can be aggressive and make a ton of birdies. --Ryan Andrade
There isn't a slam-dunk option to point to, but I'm near the top of the standings, so I'll hitch my wagon to the favorite. Griffin isn't at the level he was last season, but he's starting to get closer, with two third-place results and five top-25s over his last seven starts. A missed cut here in 2024 and a woeful ranking in SG: Approach are red flags for Griffin, but he did post a T5 at Deere Run in 2024 and has been dialing it in a bit on approach. --Kevin O'Brien
John Deere Classic: One and Done Fades
Mitchell is the No. 3 guy in both the DraftKings Sportsbook and DFS pricing. He has finished 44th, 18th and 42nd here the past three years, when the fields were weaker than this year. --Len Hochberg
Spieth has yet to post a single top-10 result through 17 outings this season, and I don't envision that changing this week at TPC Deere Run, despite winning twice here in 2013 and 2015 back when folks were still ripping Under Armour golf hats off the rack. He has looked completely lost and defeated amidst a MC-T56-T66 stretch from the Memorial Tournament through the Travelers Championship, losing 4.87 strokes with his ball striking and another 7.33 strokes on the greens throughout these past 10 rounds. --Bryce Danielson
The much-heralded amateur is turning pro this week and while his future is undoubtedly bright, I think he's going to go through some growing pains this season. This is surely a great place to turn pro as the field is fairly light, but within this field you have some bigger names as well as a lot of professionals that are very familiar with this course and that will be tough to overcome for Koivun, even if he's more talented than 80% of the field. Koivun did post a T11 here this past year, but he's a pro now, and with that comes a lot more pressure. --Greg Vara
Bradley ranked 40th in my model this week and that is probably mostly to do with his putting issues this season. He ranks just 94th in SG: Putting and consequentially sits 97th in birdie average. That doesn't leave a ton of reason for optimism at this type of course. Bradley hasn't even played here since 2016 either. On a week for OAD where upside is all that really matters with this small purse, a guy who is top-5 on the odds chart with zero top-10s on the season doesn't really check that box. --Ryan Andrade
Spieth has won this event twice, but he has only made the trip once since his last win in 2015, so he may not actually be as familiar with the place as some others. There aren't many people above him on the betting board, but there are roughly 50 golfers ahead of him in SG: Total over any recent stretch and he has not finished better than T18 since the Masters, so I have little confidence in his prospects. --Kevin O'Brien
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