THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,385 yards, par 71)
Purse: $10,300,000
Winner: $1,854,000 and 500 FedExCup Points
Tournament Preview
What an unusual and unpredictable week we just experienced out in Philadelphia. The 108th PGA Championship gave us the most jam packed leaderboard we have ever seen at a major championship. Nobody was able to separate themselves all week at Aronimink and that presented an incredible amount of possible storylines going into Sunday. A few players like Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith and Kurt Kitayama were able to go out early and shoot some really good scores, but the leaders all struggled to some degree when the wind picked up...all except Aaron Rai.
The Englishman turned his day around with an eagle at the par-5 9th hole. The back-nine played extremely difficult all week, but Rai executed all the shots perfectly and added birdies on 11, 13, 16 and 17. We were waiting all week for someone to go on a run and separate themselves, and on Sunday Rai finally did just that, putting an exclamation point on his first major victory by rolling in a 68-footer on the 71st hole of the championship.
Rai was slated to tee it up this week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, but he unsurprisingly decided to withdraw and properly celebrate this huge accomplishment. That means only three players in the Top 50 of the OWGR will be teeing it up this week in Dallas. The good news for the tournament is that two of those players are two of the biggest names in the sport. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be back to defend his title after running away from the field by eight shots last year. Fellow Dallas native Jordan Spieth will also tee it up looking for his first career win at this event, and his first win anywhere since 2022. Si Woo Kim, another Dallas native, is the other top-50 player in the field at TPC Craig Ranch. Brooks Koepka, Blades Brown, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel and Wyndham Clark highlight some of the other notables in the field.
The CJ Group made a significant investment in this event back in 2024 when they replaced AT&T as the title sponsor. They have a 10-year agreement in place, one of the longest current contracts to sponsor an event on the PGA Tour. The $10.3 million purse is also the largest among any non-major or Signature Event on the PGA Tour. While there is a lot of uncertainty in place about the future of some long-standing events with a lot of the rumored schedule changes, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is here to stay for some time, checking off a big box for the Tour having an event in a market like Dallas. It will be interesting to see, however, where they put this event on the schedule in 2027 considering the PGA Championship next year will be held for the first time at nearby PGA Frisco.
With the big financial commitment in place, the host venue, TPC Craig Ranch since 2021, decided they needed to make some changes as well if they were going to continue to host the world's top players. After the completion of the tournament in 2025, the course underwent a $25 million overhaul, which was the first major redesign since opening in 2004. It was led by World Golf Hall of Famer Lanny Wadkins who redesigned almost every bunker on the property, resurfaced and recontoured greens, added new grasses and lengthened a number of holes. All of this was done as a way to try to make it more challenging for for PGA Tour players. This has been the easiest course on the schedule since the PGA Tour moved here in 2021 with an average winning score of -25.6. Whether or not Wadkins will succeed with his mission remains to be seen, but the course lacked really any type of strategic elements before, so hopefully at least some of the shot values are improved.
These Texas events in May more often than not get interrupted at some point by thunderstorms and that will again be the expectation this week for the Byron Nelson. As of the time of writing, Thursday has a near 90% chance of thunderstorms, which likely will make it very difficult to get the cut made by Friday evening. There are solid chances for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday as well, but hopefully whatever comes through passes quick and we can get the tournament completed by Sunday evening. Usually the first year or two after a redesign the greens play very firm, but considering the expected rain this week, players should see very good scoring conditions, especially with not a whole lot of wind in the forecast.
Recent Champions
2025 - Scottie Scheffler (-31)
2024 - Taylor Pendrith (-23)
2023 - Jason Day (-23)
2022 - K.H. Lee (-26)
2021 - K.H. Lee (-25)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Sung Kang (-23)
2018 - Aaron Wise (-23)
2017 - Billy Horschel (-12)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (-15)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- Proximity 150-200 Yards
- Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage
Champion's Profile
Usually these birdie-fests can often turn into a putting contest, but TPC Craig Ranch has actually really rewarded elite ball striking. Each of the five champions here ranked in the Top 5 for the week in SG: Tee-to-Green. With this course also undergoing a redesign where bunkers have been brought more into play off the tee, the green complexes have been mostly redone, that should even more cater towards the ball strikers. Putting well is still going to be an advantage, but I'm not sure it will be nearly as impactful as we saw a week ago at Aronimink.
While a number of different holes at TPC Craig Ranch added a solid amount of length, the overall number on the card this week is actually around 200 less yards then what we had a year ago. The course reportedly has a lot of different tee options the setup crew can use throughout the course of the event, but it seems like they want to challenge these players more by bringing in hazards closer to landing areas than purely adding distance. Again, the top ball strikers should thrive this week.
Players will have to battle three different types of grasses this week at TPC Craig Ranch. The fairways are now using Zoysia grass, which does better in the Texas heat and should make the fairways less patchy. It also is quite sticky and is known for allowing balls to really sit up in a great lie. The rough has now gone back to Bermuda. They used this rough in the first couple editions at Craig Ranch, but the last few years they were using Rye. Bermuda is trickier to control the ball out of and should place a little more emphasis on driving accuracy. Lastly, the greens are Bentgrass, which is not the most common surface for the area, but generally has less grain changes than putting off Bermuda. The greens are a little larger than PGA Tour average and are being prepped to run at a manageable 11.5 on the Stimpmeter.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($15,600)
Scheffler sits a little over +150 at the betting window, so this price on FanDuel is not all that surprising. He is the heavy favorite in the model I created this week and won by eight shots while tying the PGA Tour record for aggregate 72-hole score at 253 (31-under) last year. Scheffler's recent putting issues should be less of a concern this week. He's first in GIR percentage, first in total driving, fourth in scrambling and third in birdie or better conversion percentage this season.
Si Woo Kim ($11,900)
Kim is second on the salary board, but he comes at a $3,700 discount. That could be quite worthwhile considering that Kim is also well clear of the third-best option in my model. Kim leads the PGA Tour in both proximity from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards, both of which I expect to be important this week. Kim is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and has now gained strokes in five of his last seven starts. He finished top-15 in each of the last three years at Craig Ranch.
Brooks Koepka ($11,100)
I believe Koepka has a great chance this week. He is hitting the ball so well this year at eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, third in SG: Approach, fifth in GIR percentage and seventh in proximity. The putting has been the main issue this season, but his birdie conversion percentage is actually significantly better than where he sits in SG: Putting. You've got to eat up the par-5s at Craig Ranch and Koepka sits seventh this season in par-5 scoring.
The Middle Tier
Davis Thompson ($10,400)
Thompson did not make the field for the PGA Championship, but he is playing some quality golf with top-15 finishes in his last three starts. He is striking the ball extremely well this season at 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Approach, 15th in GIR percentage and 21st in proximity. Thompson is also sixth in scrambling. The putting has not been good at all this season, but unfamiliar greens should play more into the ball strikers.
Blades Brown ($9,600)
It doesn't matter if it's the Korn Ferry Tour or the PGA Tour, Brown just keeps showing up. He has nine finishes of T26 or better already this year across the two tours. The 18-year-old was top 10 a couple weeks ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic, which featured a ton of the same players that are in the field this week. Brown doesn't have enough rounds to qualify, but he would rank top 20 on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage, proximity, scrambling, SG: Putting and birdie average. Brown can secure full PGA Tour status with a good showing this week.
John Parry ($9,200)
In a week where the field is pretty unpredictable, Parry I think is a very reliable option in this range. The Englishman has made every single one of his cuts this season, which will be hard to do this week because it will likely check in around at least a few shots under par. Parry also has four top-20 finishes this season. He is not a long hitter, but is a great iron player at 30th in SG: Approach, sixth in GIR percentage and 28th in proximity. The putter has also popped on a few occasions despite overall poor numbers.
The Long Shots
Austin Eckroat ($9,000)
Eckroat has finished T10-T6-T19 in his last three starts after a tough start to the year. The 27-year-old has always been an excellent ball striker. This year he sits 13th in SG: Approach, and ranks top five in both proximity from 125-150 yards and proximity from 150-175 yards. While the strokes gained number on the greens are not good, Eckroat has been quite efficient at seventh in putts per GIR. That should bode well for him at this Craig Ranch setup. He was runner-up here back in 2023.
Zach Bauchou ($8,100)
Bauchou was teammates with Eckroat on that fantastic 2018 Oklahoma State team that won the National Championship highlighted by Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland. It's taken Bauchou longer to find his way, but the 30-year-old rookie has had a nice season with five top-25 finishes. He's a really solid player all the way through the bag, as he is gaining strokes in every category. The wedges have been particularly sharp at 12th in proximity from 50-125 yards, a key scoring category. Bauchou feels very reliable compared to some of the other names around him.
A.J. Ewart ($7,600)
For a guy that's down this far in the $7K range in this weak of a field, Ewart has put up quite a few impressive finishes. He has racked up six top-30s, including a pair of top-15s. Ewart's stat profile is interesting, he's outside the top 100 in SG: Approach, but 39th in GIR percentage and 14th in proximity. The Canadian is also top 30 on Tour in scrambling and SG: Putting. There's a lot of good traits here to work with that are quite honestly better than most of the other guys in the $7K range this week.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The question this week is whether or not you want to roster Scottie Scheffler. If you choose to do that it leaves you just $8,800/player for your last five selections. While I do obviously love Scheffler, you can do a Si Woo/Koepka stack and still have $9,250/player for your final four picks. I tend to lean towards that type of build considering how shallow this field is. Scheffler is also going to handle a massive ownership number. Ryo Hisatsune ($10,300), Mac Meissner ($9,800), Tom Kim ($9,500) and Jordan Smith ($9,400) were a few other options not mentioned above that popped in my model who I felt like also had strong value.
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