This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Texas Children's Houston Open
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course (7,475 yards, par 70)
Purse: $9,500,000
Winner: $1,710,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The Houston Open used to be the week before the Masters and hosted at the Golf Club of Houston, which actually tried to replicate the grasses at Augusta National and some of the shots players might see. It really gained a lot of traction and saw a lot of top players decide to play the Houston Open before the first major of the year. After some sponsorship issues, however, it looked like this event might die off completely. It was moved to the fall for the 2019 edition and then to Memorial Park Golf Course for the 2020 edition with backing from The Astros Foundation, who committed nearly $35 million to renovate and redesign the course and facilities. While Memorial Park doesn't have the same similarities to Augusta like the Golf Club of Houston did, it's cool to see an investment in a municipal course that benefits the entire community, as opposed to a private club like GC of Houston. Now back in the spring for the second consecutive year with the PGA Tour returning to a calendar-based schedule in 2024, many top players will likely decide between the Houston Open this week and the Valero Texas Open next week in San Antonio as to where their final start before The Masters will come.
Speaking of top players, we have the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked players in the world in Houston, that of course in Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Scheffler missed a short putt on the 72nd at Memorial Park last year, which would have forced a playoff with Stephan Jaeger. That T2 finish broke up what could have been a streak of five straight victories last year, as Scheffler had wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship prior, and of course added The Masters and RBC Heritage after the disappointment in Houston. McIlroy will look to get on a similar run as Scheffler last year coming off his win at TPC Sawgrass a couple weeks ago, and carry that into The Masters where he will hope to complete the career grand slam. McIlroy has never played Memorial Park before, and hasn't played the Houston Open since 2014.
The other top-25 ranked players in this field are Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, Sahith Theegala, Sungjae Im and Aaron Rai. A good chunk of the rest of the field are hoping to pick up a victory or good finish to secure their spot in the first major of the season. A win in Houston or San Antonio will get any non-exempt player into Augusta. The final cutoff for the top-50 in the OWGR to make it into The Masters will be Monday. Among the guys on the bubble who have not yet punched their ticket, Michael Kim (52nd), Ben Griffin (53rd), Eric Cole (63rd), Si Woo Kim (66th), Jacob Bridgeman (67th) and Mackenzie Hughes (68th) all could potentially crack the top 50 with a strong finish in Houston. This event is also one of four tournaments used in the Aon Swing 5 calculation to determine who makes the next signature event the week after The Masters at Hilton Head. Safe to say there's a lot to play for even if you haven't had the best season to this point.
Like last week at Innisbrook, there are some concerns about the weather during the first two rounds. We're likely to get some precipitation on Thursday and/or Friday, along with some gusty winds which appear to give the edge to the AM/PM starters. The tee time split concerns didn't really end up panning out last week, however, as the top contenders of Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas came out of what everyone thought was going to be the worst wave. Will the same thing happen this week? Who knows, but the weekend does look to be really nice with temperatures rising into the mid-80s. Memorial Park hasn't been the easiest scoring course with a winning score around 13-under-par since it moved here. The wind should also be more of a factor this week than it has previously, but will the rain soften the greens up enough to allow for longer iron shots to stop quicker? These are all things to consider.
Recent Champions
2024 - Stephan Jaeger (-12)
2023 - No Tournament
2022 - Tony Finau (-16)
2021 - Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020 - Carlos Ortiz (-13)
2019 - Lanto Griffin (-14)
2018 - Ian Poulter (-19)
2017 - Russell Henley (-20)
2016 - Jim Herman (-15)
2015 - J.B. Holmes (-16)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Putting/Putting Average
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Total Driving
- Proximity 175-200 Yards/Proximity 200-225 Yards
Champion's Profile
The two things you have to do well at Memorial Park are putt and chip well. Those stats have been highly correlated to success at this track, and I could see that coming into play even more this week with steady winds in the 15-20 mph range throughout the tournament. At first glance you wouldn't think there are a lot of trouble around these greens, but most of the greens are perched up and fall off on all sides. They lead into short grass collection areas, which create the biggest skill gap from the best and worst short game players, as opposed to the courses with heavy rough right next to the putting surfaces.
This is also one of the longest courses on Tour in regards to yards per par. This par-70 can stretch to nearly 7,500 yards and features five par-3s and three par-5s. There's also five par-4s that are over 490 yards in length. Safe to say distance will help at this course, especially considering the lack of fairway bunkers and some of the shortest rough the players will see all year. The main key will just be avoiding the trees off the tee. SG: Approach hasn't seemed to correlate to success here as much as on some other venues, but players will have a lot of long iron approaches into greens and those who rank highly in some of the longer proximity buckets, like 175-200 and 200-225, could be in a prime position.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sungjae Im ($11,400)
I've always thought this place would be a great setup for Im, but he's only played here twice with a best finish of T19 in 2022. The 26-year-old has struggled a bit of late, but mainly it has been on some demanding golf courses in terms of iron play. Memorial Park will be a little different test and the rest of Im's game has been great ranking 24th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 20th in SG: Around-the-Green and 25th in SG: Putting. Look for him to get back on track this week.
Jason Day ($11,100)
If you got burned by Day's last minute withdraw at THE PLAYERS, I don't blame you at all for skipping this profile. Luckily it wasn't back related and just an illness. Memorial Park should be a great setup for Day considering his prowess throughout his career both with the putter and with a wedge around the green. It should probably come as no surprise that he's played here in all four editions since it changed courses. Day has gained on the greens in all four tries and has a pair of top-20s.
Min Woo Lee ($10,600)
Lee is one of the longest hitters on Tour and his ability to carry the ball a long ways should be an advantage at this course, especially if the fairways soften up a bit because of the rain. Lee has also been really impressive with his touch on and around the greens, ranking 15th in SG: Putting, 21st in putting average, ninth in SG: Around-the-Green and 22nd in scrambling. His T20 finish at THE PLAYERS last time out was his 11th finish of T27-or-better in his last 13 starts worldwide.
The Middle Tier
Stephan Jaeger ($10,400)
It's not hard to see why Jaeger has had success at Memorial Park in the last two editions where he went T9 in the fall of 2022 and the win last spring. In those two tournaments he gained just over 20 strokes on the field around the green and putting combined. That insane to be able to do that over eight rounds against these type of fields. Jaeger has made the cut in five of his last six starts with a T6 and a T20 over that stretch. He bombs it, the putting is there and the short game can bail him out. Checks all the boxes.
Maverick McNealy ($10,000)
McNealy was going to be a tough player to price this week because he hasn't played a whole lot recently and his last two starts were a pair of missed cuts in Florida. Prior to that he went T9-2nd on the West Coast. McNealy is just quite honestly a better player than a number of guys priced higher than him. I think this is a great bounce back spot on a course he has played at three times before and finished T27-or-better every time. If you're looking for someone to light it up on the greens, there wouldn't be many I'd put higher in that regard that McNealy.
Jacob Bridgeman ($9,300)
This price stood out right away for me. Why not just ride the hot hand of a player who finished T2, T15 and third in three of his last four starts? Now we come to a course where his biggest skill sets are valued. Bridgeman ranks sixth in SG: Putting, 10th in putting average, 27th in SG: Around-the-Green and 17th in scrambling. He's also top-30 this season in par-3 scoring average, which will come in handy with an extra one at Memorial Park. Bridgeman finished T21 last spring in Houston.
The Long Shots
Sam Ryder ($8,700)
In a week like this our first goal is going to be to get everyone to the weekend, so I'm going to back Ryder who has yet to miss a cut in eight tournaments this season. He's also collected four top-25s and gone T14-T16 the last two weeks. Ryder has been as hot as anyone with the putter of late, moving up to second on the season in SG: Putting. He is also top-30 in scrambling, proximity to the hole and par-3 scoring. Ryder's record at Memorial Park isn't great, but this is probably the best form he's had coming in to this event.
Jeremy Paul ($8,400)
Paul was at the top of the leaderboard briefly in the third round last week after three straight birdies, but fell off from there and had to settle for T22. Nevertheless, that was still his third top-25 in his last four starts. Paul should be a solid fit for Memorial Park as he sits 28th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 30th in GIR percentage, 46th in scrambling and 43rd in putting average. He is also 11th in bogey avoidance, which could be a nice thing to have on his side if it gets pretty breezy.
Jesper Svensson ($8,200)
Svensson posted a top-10 in his first start this season in Honolulu. He followed that up with a pair of missed cuts, but since then he has made the weekend in five straight. The Swede can absolutely bomb it and is an elite putter, a pretty dangerous combination at a venue like Memorial Park. Svensson ranks 10th in driving distance, 23rd in SG: Putting, 14th in putting average and ninth in birdie average this season. He's got the game to be one of the higher upside players in this range.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The first thing that stands out when you look at the pricing is the gap from the top-two options of Scheffler ($14,000) and McIlroy ($13,200) to the No. 3 option of Rai ($11,800). That's about as high of a discrepancy as I can remember in FanDuel PGA pricing. It looks like a good field because those two top dogs are in the field, but it's actually a much shallower field than last week at the Valspar Championship. Even at those prices, I don't see ownership dropping too much of either of those players given the names that are directly behind them. I do think the $9K and $10K ranges are quite strong, so I would lean towards more of a balanced build. A stars and scrubs build puts too much pressure on some really sketchy names in the $7K range to have to make the cut in this 155-man field.
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