Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: Valspar Championship

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course
Palm Harbor, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor as the Valspar Championship gets underway.

I wrote this past week that the theme of this year has been late-round collapses by some high-end players and it couldn't even marinate for a week before it happened again, this time it was  Ludvig Aberg falling apart late on Sunday. I would say this one was shocking,  but really, can we be shocked anymore?

Let's face it, almost everything we thought we knew has proved to be untrue this season…at least for now. Remember early in the season when I declared this is the season of Scottie after he won his first start? Yeah, that hasn't panned out. Rory McIlroy, who destroyed everyone in his path around this time a year ago, hasn't been much of a factor this season (not really his fault, but still), and back to the main point, quality players, who have won before, are no longer are safe bets with big leads on the final-nine. I'm not sure we can count on anything any longer. 

As for the players that actually battled for the win this past week, well they delivered. What a finish for Cam Young. He's long been a golfer that many had pegged for great things on the PGA Tour, but he's sure taken his sweet time. He took forever to get his first win, but as far as winning a big event like The PLAYERS, he's about right on time. Remember, that first win came in 2025, so we haven't really had much time to figure out if the floodgates are opening, but it sure looks that way now. Young entered the 2026 season off a career high in earnings and with the $4.5 million he just cashed, it's safe to say that a new career high will be set this season.

As for the runner-up, Matt Fitzpatrick hit a dry spell after his major win a few years ago, but it looks like he's back where he needs to be to compete for major number two. The Masters is right around the corner and I would imagine that Fitzpatrick will be a popular play. Especially with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy not looking much like themselves lately.

As for this week, there's no letdown from a big event this week as the field is loaded…for a non-signature event that is. We've got a ton of course history and a lot of players from this past week's field, so current form is not in question.

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LAST YEAR

Viktor Hovland shot a final-round 67 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Justin Thomas.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Xander Schauffele (11-1) 

I mentioned this past week that Schauffele might be rounding into form, and it sure looks like he's close. He faded on the weekend, but he actually finished strong so perhaps he's got some momentum he can carry over to this week. His track record here is very limited, just three starts, but he's never missed a cut here and he's finished no worse than T12 in any start. His best finish came in 2024 when he finished T5. You'd think that with a track record like that, he'd spend more time at this event but maybe he's making a change as he's played here the past two years, so perhaps he's just run into scheduling conflicts and it's not an issue with this course.

Matt Fitzpatrick (14-1)

Fitzpatrick is coming in off a great showing this past week, but we might have to worry about his mindset as he was in great position to win what would have been his second biggest win of his career, but he failed in the end. On the one hand, he wasn't sitting on a big lead, but on the other hand, he could have won if he'd just closed a little better. I'm guessing he'll be fine, so I'm not treating this week like he has some big hurdle to overcome. As for his track record, well, that's all over the place. He's played this event three times, and missed the cut twice, but the one time he made the cut, he landed in 5th place.

Viktor Hovland (19-1)

It seems like Hovland's odds are higher this week because he's the defending champion. For those unfamiliar, the law of Even Steven states that it's very difficult to successfully defend a title on the PGA Tour, therefore, the odds are artificially inflated. Look, I understand that defending a title brings more things into the fold than just showing up and playing golf, but Hovland has a strong track record here, so last year's result was no fluke. His form is also pretty good entering this week, so I see no reason to avoid him only because he's the defending champion.

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THE NEXT TIER

Justin Thomas (20-1)    

I know, Thomas's odds aren't that much different from the favorites and there's not a the amount of separation that you'd normally see with the second group, but there's a pack of three players in this range and I needed to put at least one of them in here. J.T. looks like the best option of the three as his track record here is very strong and his form appears to be fine even though he came off a long layoff this past week at The PLAYERS. Thomas has not won this event, but he's come very close twice and he's finished outside the top-20 in just two of seven starts here.

Brooks Koepka (25-1)

I was skeptical of Koepka at the start of the season, largely because he would have to play these non-signature events to regain signature status on the PGA Tour and even when he was at his best, he was iffy at best at lesser events. That being said, he looks fully committed to working his way back and after getting a taste of contending at a big event this past week, I'm sure he's even more motivated to get the work done. Now, this isn't a typical non-signature event because the strength of the field, but that might actually work in his favor this week as he'll likely be more motivated than he might be otherwise.

Corey Conners (30-1)

Conners got off to a nice start this past week at The PLAYERS, but like many, he faded on the weekend. Conners especially struggled on Sunday, but that might have been due to pressing after losing ground on Saturday. Whatever the reason, he's at a new venue this week, so I doubt last week will have that much of an effect on him. Conners' form is pretty good entering the week and his track record here is solid, with top-25s in all three starts here. His best showing at the Valspar was a T8 this past year.      

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LONG SHOTS

Austin Smotherman (40-1)       

Is Smotherman the next player on the PGA Tour to breakthrough with a win? There certainly weren't many signs heading into the season that Smotherman was about to breakout, but a runner-up at Cognizant Classic seems to have changed the perception of him. Smotherman got off to a solid start this past week at The PLAYERS, queue the broken record, but like a lot of guys, he faded on the weekend. It makes sense that Smotherman might fade in the face of a tough challenge, after all, he hasn't exactly been in many spots like that in his short career, but to his credit, he hung on for a top-15, which is pretty good all things considered. Can he make the leap to PGA Tour winner this week? He was close just a month ago, so why not?

Billy Horschel (80-1)    

A big dog this week as Horschel is creeping near triple digits, but he's a guy that knows how to win and he's done a lot of damage historically in the state of Florida. Horschel finished the 2025 season outside the top-100 on the PGA Tour, but the last time that happened, in 2022, he followed that up with a top-25 finish the following season. I'm not saying he'll do that again this year, but he's been far too consistent in this career to stay down for too long. While his overall track record here is not great, he did finish T4 here this past year and T12 the previous year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Brooks Koepka – This is one of those weeks where it's going to be hard to figure out where people are going to land, but I think the big names will largely go unused because this is not a signature event. I'm not saying Koepka is not a big name, but for now he's not playing in the signature events, so your chances to use him are limited. You probably aren't deploying him at a major either as there are more options during a major.  

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Sahith Theegala – As I just mentioned, there are a group of players at the top that are probably not in play this week and it might be more than just the favorites. With that in mind, we need to go a little further down the odds chart to find someone and I think Theegala fits the bill this week. There was a lot of steam on Theegala prior to this past week and while he didn't come through at The PLAYERS, he's still come a long way from a down 2025 season. Look for Theegala to keep his solid 2026 season going this week.     

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Billy Horschel – I'm not sure most OAD players are comfortable going this far down the odds chart, so I have to assume that Horschel will be lightly used this week. With that said, I don't consider him a huge longshot this week. I know what the odds say, but Horschel has been known to pop up when you don't see it coming and for most people, they don't see it coming this week.              

Buyer Beware: Akshay Bhatia – Are there any back injuries that I'm not aware of? Okay, no easy way out this week. I'm going with my gut this week and fading Bhatia. Not because his form is poor, but rather I think he's run out of gas. He picked up a huge win two weeks ago and no one would have blamed him if he missed the cut the following week at The PLAYERS, but that's not what happened. He got off to a good start but faded as the week wore on. I think that's a sign that he might be running on an empty tank right now. The week after hangover might actually take place two weeks after for Bhatia.   

My Pick: Sahith Theegala – I really struggled with this one because there are a lot of good picks near the top of the leader board, but I don't want to use any of those guys in a non-signature event. My guess is that I'll use that strategy all season and then be left with a lot of good players unused, but I'm going to stick with it for at least a little while longer. With that in mind, Theegala seems like one of the better non-signature options. To expand on that, I don't hate using Hovland, Fitzpatrick or Bridgeman this week, but I'd rather save them for later. Yes, Bridgeman is now a guy that you have to think hard about using in an event like this.  As for Theegala, he's got a decent track record here, but this is more about getting back to his pre-2025 form, which he appears to be doing.

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Brooks Koepka ($10,800)
Middle Range: Austin Smotherman ($9,200)
Lower Range: Billy Horschel ($8,500)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Justin Thomas – A bit of a risk using JT in his second week back, but he looks ready to get back to his usual self and that means, playing well here. There is a version of this story where he put everything he had to making it back this past week and he has nothing left for this week, but this is golf, right? It shouldn't be too hard to play in consecutive weeks, even if you've been out for a while. 

Previous Results