Valspar Championship Betting Preview
The closing event of the four-week Florida Swing heads southwest to Palm Harbor for the annual Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. Even though we're coming off two marquee events in a row, the field remains strong with seven of the top-20 players in the OWGR. Tournament favorite Xander Schauffele headlines the field at 10-1, while notables Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas will look to build off strong showings at THE PLAYERS. Last year, Viktor Hovland won by one shot over Thomas for his seventh Tour victory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,352 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.4
- SG: Approach: 9.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 41.0
- SG: Putting: 5.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 7.0
- Driving Distance: 17.6
- Driving Accuracy: 34.0
There is no let up in the recent run of tough venues as Innisbrook has historically been quite the challenge and even-par is usually enough to see the weekend. Most known for the 'Snake Pit', golfers are faced with a difficult three-hole closing stretch that plays around three-quarters of a stroke over-par combined on average. Unlike most par 71 setups, note that there are four par-5s and five par-3s, and three of the four par-5s were the only holes to play under-par last year. Off the tee, players are faced with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 26 yards wide and will put a premium on accuracy over distance. With only one par-4 over 470 yards and 12 dogleg holes, expect players to use less than driver often. We can see from the metrics above that iron play and putting tend to be key stats here, and we'll see a lot of approaches in the 150-200 yard range. I'll also be looking for players that rank well in bogey avoidance and have had success on difficult courses.
Course History
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Innisbrook over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Viktor Hovland: 68.5
- Shane Lowry: 68.9
- Xander Schauffele: 69.0
- Keegan Bradley: 69.1
- Justin Thomas: 69.4
The defending champion tops the list having also posted a T3 here in 2021. Hovland has excelled at the Copperhead course with his iron play, gaining 1.22 strokes per round on approach across 12 career rounds. Unlike last year when he entered on the heels of three consecutive missed cuts, Hovland is coming off back-to-back top-15s and is the third favorite at +1850. Meanwhile, Bradley will look to shake of a disappointing start to the year at a place where he finished runner-up in 2021. The veteran recently discussed struggling with shaking off the Ryder Cup loss this fall and has failed to post a top-25 in six starts this year. Nevertheless, we saw with Hovland last year that recent form isn't a prerequisite for success. Bradley is a value option at 41-1.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 0.93
- Viktor Hovland: 0.85
- Ryo Hisatsune: 0.77
- David Ford: 0.77
- Sahith Theegala .76
Fitzpatrick will look to bounce back after a disappointing finish at THE PLAYERS in which he led with two holes to play Sunday but came up one short. He's been hit-or-miss at this event, with a T5 sandwiched in-between a pair of missed cuts. Fitzpatrick's iron play has fueled him to re-emerge this year as arguably a top-10 player in the world once again, making all six of his cuts with three top-15s. Another player on the list showing signs of his peak form is Theegala (36-1), who hasn't missed a cut across eight events with three top-10s. The downside is that he's still a bit sporadic off the tee but looks solid everywhere else. Now in his fifth year on Tour, Theegala posted a T7 result in his debut at Innisbrook in 2022.
Valspar Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Patrick Cantlay (+2050)
Coming off an outright hit with Cameron Young last week, I'll start off with Cantlay, who isn't having his best year, but the demise is being overstated. He still has a pair of top-15s and is 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Cantlay has only played the event twice before and finished one shot back in 2017.
Corey Conners (32-1)
Conners makes for a strong course fit for Innisbrook as one of the most accurate drivers on Tour with a strong long iron game. That's translated to his results here, where he's gained at least 1.3 strokes per round with his ball striking en route to finishing T21 or better in all three appearances.
Mackenzie Hughes (98-1)
We've seen five winners at Copperhead since 2011 with odds of 90-1 or longer, and Hughes has a strong course history with a T13 in 2019 and a T3 two years ago. The veteran is one of the best players in the field from 100 yards and in.
Valspar Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Taylor Moore (+550)
Moore is having a solid season at 44th in the FedExCup as he's made the cut in all five events he's played and had a shared runner-up at PGA National. The 2023 Valspar champion also posted a T12 here the following year.
Billy Horschel (7-1)
Horschel comes in with some confidence in his home state after finishing T13 at Bay Hill. He also should have a little fire in him after missing THE PLAYERS for the first time since 2012. Horschel finished T12 here in 2024 and was T4 last year.
Beau Hossler (+970)
Similarly to Hughes, I think targeting longshots that stand out with their short game is a good strategy for Innisbrook as players will need to scramble well. Hossler is very good in that regard and had a top-25 in his last Florida start three weeks ago.
Valspar Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Alex Smalley (-110) over Aaron Rai
A matchup between two players trending in opposite directions, Smalley is a reliable head-to-head target having made 6-of-7 cuts this year with top-25s at TPC Sawgrass and Pebble Beach. He ranks 36th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 33rd in bogey avoidance. On the other hand, it's been an uncharacteristic year for Rai, who has failed to post a top-20 across five starts, and is coming off a missed cut last week and a MC in his lone start at Innidsbrook.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-120) over Max McGreevy
Bezuidenhout makes for an excellent course fit as a short but accurate driver with a strong short game, and is a golfer that doesn't make a lot of bogeys. He finished T9 here two years and had a top-10 in Puerto Rico two weeks ago. McGreevy on the other hand struggles with his short game and has failed to post a top-25 across eight starts. He's also hasn't finished better than T48 across three appearances here.
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