Brady Singer

Almost everything pointed to Singer being able to take a big step forward in 2023, but he instead regressed to the tune of a career-worst 5.52 ERA. It would be reasonable on the surface to blame the arm fatigue that plagued him in the second half or the back strain that ended his season in mid-September, but he wasn't particularly good in the first half either. Singer is still young -- this will be his age-27 campaign -- but there is some worrisome data suggesting major-league hitters might have figured him out. Largely a two-pitch, sinker-slider type of hurler, he gave up an average exit velocity of 91 mph on batted balls last year, falling into the bottom-sixth percentile of all big-league pitchers in that measurement. He generates a lot of groundballs, but Singer will have to generate even more moving forward if he can't rework his arsenal and/or add an effective third pitch.

Singer will be an interesting project in 2023 as the talent is there, but he is an incomplete body of work. Most sinker/slider repertoires stick in the bullpen, yet Singer has started in 63 of his 66 games at the major league level with a 23% strikeout rate despite no true offspeed pitch. He did increase the usage of his changeup in 2022, but the pitch has no whiffiness whatsoever so it is more of a show-me pitch to lefties than an actual weapon. Oddly enough, righties had a higher average against him for a second consecutive season than lefties, but the lefties took him deep twice as frequently. Singer persevered despite the limitations with a 19% K-BB%, which is impressive given the limited repertoire and the perceived challenges in the Cal Eldred era of pitching coach. A new pitching coach could provide Singer with a better tertiary pitch and allow him to take another step forward this season.

As the first Royals pitcher drafted amongst the trio of Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch in 2018, Brady Singer holds a 4.62 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22.6% K%, and 9% BB% in 192.2 career innings. Singer went from a .260 BABIP and 72.9% LOB% in 2020 to a .350 BABIP and 67.8% LOB% in 2021. As a groundball-heavy pitcher (50.9%) that relies on the sinker 56.3% of the time, Singer also mixes in a slider (37-38%). Although the slider also elicits a 50.8% GB%, it's Singer's best pitch with a career 15.3% SwStr% and .293 wOBA. Since Singer likely won't be a quality source of strikeouts, fantasy managers hope for a season like 2020 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In Singer's career, he threw 13 quality starts (33%), but averages under five innings per start due to 12 starts of four innings or less. If the sinker performs more like 2020 (.295 wOBA) than 2021 (.381), Singer holds value as a streamer with limited upside.

The 2018 18th-overall pick skipped Triple-A to debut last season after just 26 professional starts. He certainly didn't look overmatched, finishing with a respectable 4.06 ERA, a number supported by his 4.08 FIP and 4.05 xFIP. His 23.2 K% and 8.7 BB% were both within half a point of average, though his 53.1% groundball rate was well above the league average of 42.7%. A heavy dose of grounders will have to be his calling card going forward, as he was almost exclusively a sinker-slider pitcher, throwing his changeup less than five percent of the time, hardly a recipe for a high amount of whiffs given his merely average velocity. A grounder-heavy pitcher who still gets some strikeouts is a perfectly serviceable arm, however, especially one who calls a pitcher-friendly park home. There's room for growth if his changeup becomes more usable, but he never projected as a frontline arm, so don't expect fireworks.

Still mostly a sinker/slider pitcher, Singer's lack of a deep repertoire did not prevent him from having steady success in his debut season, as he stayed healthy and logged a 2.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 148.1 IP. He generated groundballs at over a 50% clip and logged a 17.6 K-BB% at High-A and a 15.3 K-BB% at Double-A. His lack of a reliable changeup led to left-handed hitters slashing .276/.352/.385 against him, but he stifled right-handed hitters, who slashed just .222/.273/.337. His plus slider and low-90s sinker give him the floor of a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he needs to improve his changeup in order to become a well-rounded No. 3 starter. The Royals have a wave of well-regarded pitchers coming. They should all spend most of 2020 pitching in the upper levels of the minors, and Singer could be the first of that wave to reach the majors if his changeup improves this summer.

The Blue Jays selected Singer in the second round out of high school in 2015, but he opted against signing, instead choosing to attend the University of Florida. His bet on himself paid off, as Singer improved his stock during his time in college and ended up going 18th overall in last June's first-year player draft. While Singer did not pitch for an affiliate after being drafted by the Royals, he did achieve some level of fame after he used part of his $4-plus million signing bonus to pay off his parents' debt, with the reaction video going viral. Singer is a big, 6-foot-5 right-hander with a low arm slot and incredible horizontal movement on his two primary pitches (fastball/slider). He's now 22 and so the clock is ticking on the development of his changeup and command. If neither of those pieces of the puzzle come along, Singer could transition to a high-leverage relief role. He figures to open 2019 at the High-A level.