J.P. Crawford

Crawford enjoyed a wonderful breakout season offensively after years of fantasy managers waiting for the production to catch up with the potential with him. Crawford parlayed his excellent OBP skills into scoring 94 runs thanks to a career high walk rate which helped him get on base 38% of the time. Crawford's batting average splits were nil but 16 of his 19 homers came against righties and he was a monster in the second half trying to personally will Seattle into returning to the postseason with 11 homers, 47 runs, and a .282/.401/.492 line during that time. Crawford opened the season hitting 9th but quickly moved to the leadoff and remained there most of the season. That role should continue for him as he has the best OBP chops on the roster. Crawford is one of 23 players with at least 600 plate appearances in each of the past three seasons and just one of five shortstops to do so. He was a bargain in 2023 drafts, but his price has risen significantly this draft season.

Crawford took a small step back from his .273/.338/.376 slash line in 2021, but poorer offensive production across the league meant he still had a 104 wRC+ despite a .675 OPS last season. His usually-strong defense also took a step back with a minus-three DRS and minus-11 OAA. Crawford inked a $51 million extension in April, so his spot in Seattle's infield is secure, and he won't be shifting off shortstop following the acquisition of Kolten Wong. Crawford's contact and on-base skills (13.3 percent strikeout rate, 11.6 percent walk rate) remain solid, but his lack of power and speed doesn't provide much broad fantasy appeal. He hit leadoff 26 times in 2022, but the Mariners will likely want a more consistent bat atop the order, so he shouldn't be expected to be a strong source of runs either.

Crawford logged a career-high 687 plate appearances, and his skills profile largely mirrored those he posted across several previous partial seasons. He solidified himself as a strong contact hitter by logging a strikeout rate below 20% for the second consecutive campaign. However, that's the primary -- and potentially only -- source of optimism for his production moving forward. For example, Crawford posted a career-low 30.8 flyball percent as well as an uninspiring 2.4 percent barrel rate and 86.3 mph average exit velocity. In addition, despite regularly posting above-average sprint speeds, Crawford has only 17 career stolen bases while being caught 12 times across 378 games. Looking ahead to 2022, Crawford has already been declared the team's starting shortstop. It remains to be seen where he fits in the order, but if he can maintain the leadoff role he occupied in 2021, he should at least be a strong source of runs.

This past season was Crawford's third at the big-league level that included time on the roster beyond just September exposure. We like to see positive trends in statistical growth from young players, and Crawford did that in 2020, lowering his strikeout rate a significant amount for a second consecutive season. That improvement showed up in his batting average, which improved nearly 30 points over his 2019 finish. The improvements are most evident in his plate-discipline profile where he posted career-best numbers on overall contact and contact within the strike zone. The power numbers are not going to show up, but the batting average improvements and the quickness are a nice combination to have on any roster in 2021. This feels like a profile on the precipice of a 2021 breakout; a late-round pick who outperforms his ADP by 100-plus spots by seasons end. Buy in at the ground floor.

Crawford received a needed change of scenery last winter, when he was moved from the Phillies to a Seattle club embarking on a rebuild. In early May, an injury to Dee Gordon opened up a spot in the big leagues for Crawford, who manned shortstop on a full-time basis the rest of the way, aside from two brief shutdowns due to injury. Crawford's excellent defense and quality eye at the plate (10.9 BB%) made him valuable to the Mariners from a real-life standpoint, but much less so for fantasy purposes. Given his above-average speed and probable spot near the top of the order, Crawford may have a path to a 10-to-15 steals in 2020, but the batted-ball profile doesn't inspire confidence in him yielding dividends in other areas. Per Statcast, Crawford's expected batting average (.237) and expected slugging average (.337) placed him in the 14th and fifth percentiles, respectively, among all hitters last season.

Crawford's 2018 campaign was nowhere close to the step forward he was supposed to take after a disappointing debut in 2017. He was expected to be the everyday starter at shortstop but wound up starting just 27 games there (plus nine more at third base) and received a total of just 138 plate appearances around a pair of trips to the disabled list. He didn't do much with those plate appearances either, hitting just .214/.319/.393. That was good for a 96 wRC+, a perfectly acceptable mark for a shortstop, but most of that value came from a strong 9.4% walk rate, which only helps owners in OBP leagues. He did post better numbers after working to shorten his swing, and he's just 23, so there's still time for him to become an average-or-better shortstop. Dealt to the Mariners in the Jean Segura trade, Crawford will get a clean slate in a new organization, but it's not a lock he's on the team for Opening Day.

Quality defense at shortstop and an advanced approach have kept Crawford near the top of real-life prospect rankings for a couple years, but he has never flashed impact fantasy tools. That was never more apparent than the first half of last year, when he hit .211/.328/.330. Fortunately Crawford salvaged his season after a team-imposed 10-day mental break in June. He hit .287/.385/.513 with nine home runs in 51 games after the All-Star break, earning a late-season callup. He projects to be decent in OBP leagues, but in today's offensive climate, a shortstop who hits .265 without impact speed or power is not very valuable in standard formats. The Francisco Lindor comps don't really work because Lindor at least showed batting average and stolen-base upside in the minors. Crawford's best chance to be a top-15 shortstop is to hit first or second and challenge for 90-run seasons in his prime. Freddy Galvis was moved this offseason and Cesar Hernandez could go eventually as the Phillies prepare for Crawford and Scott Kingery to take over as the double-play duo of the future.

Crawford opened last season at Double-A Reading and earned a promotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in mid-May, largely due to his control of the strike zone. Crawford's eye is part of the reason he receives high rankings from prospect evaluators despite modest power numbers thus far. He has also always been young for his level, which can sometimes be overlooked when reviewing just statistical output. Crawford got off to a slow start at Triple-A after his promotion -- something that has been typical for him throughout his career -- and also missed time with an oblique injury. He was not promoted in September and instead underwent surgery to remove a loose body from his left knee. He will get a chance to compete for a starting job this spring, but given his overall struggles at Triple-A last season, the Phillies will likely have him open the year back in the minors with an eye toward a midseason promotion.

Crawford is the top prospect in the Phillies' farm system and is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. After missing the first month of the season with an oblique strain, Crawford was assigned to High-A Clearwater, but was quickly moved up to Double-A after slashing .392/.489/.443 in his first 21 games. His numbers at Double-A are not overly impressive at first glance, but it is important to remember that he was just 20 years old last season, making him one of the youngest players at the Double-A level. He hit just five home runs in 351 at-bats, but maintained his excellent walk rate despite facing advanced competition, and continued to earn praise for his defensive abilities. Crawford reportedly suffered a slight tear in his thumb ligament during Arizona Fall League play, but is expected to be fully healthy for the start of spring training. The Phillies could start him back at Double-A this season, but he should push his way to Triple-A and possibly the majors before the end of the 2016 season.

Crawford has steadily climbed through the Phillies' minor league system since he was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft. He spent the first half of last season at Low-A Lakewood before earning a promotion to High-A Clearwater to close out the season. Crawford has impressive tools. He has shown an excellent eye at the plate, makes contact at a good clip and keeps his strikeouts in check. He showed some signs of power growth in the second half of last season with eight home runs in 271 at-bats for Clearwater. If Crawford continues his progression, he'll likely hit Double-A by the middle of 2015, with the hope of a late 2016 or early 2017 arrival to Philadelphia.

The Phillies drafted Crawford, who is the cousin of Dodgers outfielder Carl Crawford, in the first round of the 2013 draft. Crawford fields with ease, showing agility and quickness in the infield. His bat has the potential to hit for average with some pop. He got off to a fast start for the Gulf Coast League Phillies and earned a promotion to Low-A Lakewood in August, making him one of the youngest players at that level in 2013. The Phillies will likely send him back to Lakewood rather than keep him in extended spring training at the start of the year, and Crawford could see time at High-A Clearwater later in the season should his performance warrant a promotion.