Valspar Championship One and Done Picks
The final leg of the Florida Swing takes us to the Tampa area and the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort, and one-and-done players have plenty to ponder.
Considering that the Valspar Championship follows a Signature Event and THE PLAYERS Championship, it was still able to compile a pretty solid field -- one that features nine players ranked inside the top 25 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Several of those on hand -- Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Jacob Bridgeman and Justin Thomas -- fared very well at TPC Sawgrass.
Purses of $20 million or more were the norm over the last five weeks, but the Valspar Championship begins a stretch of three standard PGA Tour events that feature a $9-10 million purse before reaching the first major championship of the year at Augusta.
Events like the Valspar Championship may lack fanfare compared to their counterparts, but they do provide opportunities to seek a hot week from someone you would not necessarily consider in the big-money tournaments.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course (7,352 yards, par 71)
- Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
- Purse: $9.1 million -- $1.638 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Viktor Hovland (-11)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 71.87
- Average Winning Score Last 3 Years: -11
The Copperhead Course will require a similar type of skill set that was pegged for TPC Sawgrass a week ago. Hitting fairways and greens will be the name of the game. The rough won't be as penal as it was last week, but there's a high possibility your next shot is blocked out if you spray it around this course. Similar to Sawgrass, Innisbrook will frame most of the tee shots and approaches. It will be an execution test. The shot is right in front of you. Can you hit it?
Innisbrook does feature far more elevation changes than the other PGA Tour events held in Florida. With that said, there is a lot less water danger than the players have faced recently. There are five par-3s and four par-5s on this par-71 track. The par-3s are all going to require a mid-to-long iron to reach, which puts added value right on players who excel in the 175-225 yard range. The par-5s here all typically play pretty tough as well. Players have to navigate trees and fairway bunkers in hopes of reaching greens in two. From there you need to figure out the best places to miss and leave open the option to scramble for birdie.
Over the last three years, the winning score averaged just 11-under-par. Some of that had to do with changes the course made to bring thick rough closer to the greens. That brought some of the scrambling numbers down. The weather is expected to be near perfect this week, so greens should be able to firm up. As such, approach shots and ball striking will take on even more importance than usual.
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RotoWire One and Done Tools
Valspar Championship: One and Done Picks
Hand up, Hisatsune was not a player I had pegged as an OAD option in 2026. Now I don't see how he couldn't be used at some point this season. He has become a ball-striking wizard, ranking top-30 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, total driving, GIR percentage and proximity. Hisatsune has gained strokes around the green in all but one of his eight starts this year. If he spikes with the putter, the 23-year-old is going to have an excellent shot at the win. He did so last year, when he gained over five strokes on the greens en route to a T4 finish at Innisbrook. --Ryan Andrade
I really struggled with this one because there are a number of good options, but I want to keep a lot of them available for a Signature Event. My guess is I will stick to that strategy and leave some good players on the board at the end of the campaign, but I'm going to stick with at least a little while longer. With that in mind, Theegala seems like one of the better options to use outside a Signature Event. Hovland, Fitzpatrick and Bridgeman -- yes, he's in that tier now -- are all players I want to save for later. Theegala has a decent track record here, but this is more about getting back to the level he was at before 2025, which he appears to be doing. --Greg Vara
The narrative around Cantlay seems to be that he's forgotten how to play golf, as backers are frustrated he hasn't posted a top-10 this year. The metrics indicate he's due for some positive regression, as he ranks 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green and was ninth in SG: Off-the-Tee at TPC Sawgrass. Cantlay hasn't played this event since way back in 2017, when he finished runner-up in just his second start following an extended injury-related layoff. The drop in field strength after four consecutive Signature Events should benefit him. --Ryan Pohle
Conners has three strong showings at Copperhead, finishing T16, T21 and T8 while gaining strokes putting in two of those three appearances -- a notable sign for a player who usually gives shots back on the greens. The Canadian ranks third in driving accuracy and 12th in Strokes Gained: Approach among this field, an ideal combination on a course that demands precision. Despite a slow start to 2026, his T13 at THE PLAYERS suggests his game is trending up at the right time. --Lauren Jump
We're halfway through March and Bridgeman is leading the PGA Tour in both SG: Total and SG: Putting, so I want to strike while the iron is hot. Sure, he has not been great off the tee, and it's tough to win twice in a season -- let alone twice in a month -- but Bridgeman continues to post quality results and finished third at Copperhead last year. --Kevin O'Brien
You're likely saving tournament-favorite Schauffele, and maybe even Fitzpatrick/Hovland for larger-purse events, which brings Hojgaard into the mix of legitimate options. He placed top-6 in three of his last six worldwide starts dating back to the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and -- among players with a minimum of eight rounds -- he's second among this field in SG: Total per round in 2026. A lack of course history and a missed cut in his 2025 debut hopefully limits Hojgaard's OAD popularity, with course fit and form remaining much more important than a two-day sample 12 months ago. --Bryce Danielson
Schauffele is coming off a solo third at THE PLAYERS, his best showing of the season. For three rounds he might have even been the best golfer in the tournament. If not for a horrendous 74 on Saturday littered with poor shots, he might have won. Schauffele is clearly trending in the right direction, with two top-10s and two top-25s in his last four starts -- all Signature-level Events or higher. His game is so balanced right now, with ranks of 33rd Off-the-Tee, 21st on Approach, 15th Tee-to-Green and 53rd in Putting. He has finished no worse than 12th in three visits to Copperhead. --Len Hochberg
Valspar Championship: One and Done Fades
I'm expecting Thomas to draw significant interest given his stellar record at Innisbrook -- six top-20 finishes in eight starts -- along with his T8 at Sawgrass. That said, Thomas has driven the ball terribly in his two starts this year. He got away with it last week because he was great on approach and with the putter. I don't think Thomas is getting away with it again. It's also probably worth mentioning this will be his third consecutive start after a six-month absence due to back surgery. I could definitely see some fatigue setting in after a high-stress week at THE PLAYERS. --Ryan Andrade
*Bhatia has withdrawn from this week's event.
Are there any back injuries that I'm not aware of? Okay, no easy way out this week. I'm going with my gut this week and fading Bhatia. Not because his form is poor, but rather I think he's run out of gas. He picked up a huge win two weeks ago and no one would have blamed him if he missed the cut the following week at The PLAYERS, but that's not what happened. He got off to a good start but faded as the week wore on. I think that's a sign that he might be running on an empty tank right now. The week after hangover might actually take place two weeks after for Bhatia. --Greg Vara
It's always tempting to take a golfer that's coming off a top-5 in the same event last year, but Hisatsune had an excellent putting week, which will be tough to repeat. That has historically been his weakness, and he has failed to gain strokes on Poa in both Florida events he has appeared in this year. He should be one of the more popular players this week, but I'm saving him until the Tour heads to Texas, where Hisatsune posted two top-10s last year. --Ryan Pohle
Cantlay has yet to record a single top-10 finish in 2026 and has missed two cuts in six events. The Bermuda grass of the Florida Swing has been his downfall, highlighted by a missed cut at Bay Hill and a forgettable T32 at The PLAYERS. The price on him is simply not justified by anything he has shown to date, especially with better values on the board. --Lauren Jump
Spieth has won this event and has had some quality results early this season, but we're not quite ready for the "Is Spieth back?" conversation. His scrambling has saved him some strokes, but he has been all over the place off the tee, and that's hardly what you want on a tight track. --Kevin O'Brien
Cantlay earned runner-up honors during his last trip to Innisbrook back in 2017, but he's coming off a T37-MC-T32 stretch from The Genesis Invitational through THE PLAYERS Championship, losing 6.71 strokes on approach throughout his past seven rounds. Cantlay's win equity is a major question mark even when he's playing well. --Bryce Danielson
Bradley has struggled all season. He has missed three of six cuts and has zero top-25s. Really, nothing is going well. He is ranked outside the top 100 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting, and that's a recipe for trouble. Bradley took the Ryder Cup loss very hard, and it's fair to wonder whether he's amid a post-Cup hangover. --Len Hochberg
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
