Valspar Championship
Course: Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead Course (7,352 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,100,000
Winner: $1,638,000 and 500 FedExCup Points
Tournament Preview
Last week we saw just a tremendous all-around tournament. TPC Sawgrass played excellent, punishing poor shots and rewarding good ones. We saw so many different names near the top of the leaderboard at some point over the weekend. Going into Sunday, however, it looked like it was Ludvig Aberg's to lose...and lose he sure would. Aberg just made an absolute mess of the back-nine on Sunday and fell to a T5. In the penultimate group, however, some excellent shots were being hit. It turned into a duel between Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick. Ultimately it would be Young who pulled off the shots down the stretch to win THE PLAYERS Championship.
After being a contender in a lot of big events at the start of his career, Young is now proving he has the mental fortitude to close them out as well. The talent has never been a question. Watching Young hit drives is one of the most beautiful pieces of art in the game, as he proved with a 375-yard bomb on the 72nd hole on Sunday. Aberg on the other hand is a frustrating case. The talent with the Swede has never been in question either, although he was more highly touted than Young. For Aberg to not be able to even have a chance coming up the last couple holes is shocking considering the lead he had and how he was hitting the ball. For most players I'd say this will be a tough one to get over, but Aberg never lets anything rattle him and always is able to find the positive side of things. He's still just 26 and will grow into being a better closer because given his ability, Aberg is going to be in the mix a lot over the coming years.
Neither Young or Aberg are in the field this week at the Valspar Championship, but Fitzpatrick will be as he looks to ride the good play from TPC Sawgrass into the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. The Englishman will be seeking his first PGA Tour win since April of 2023 at Harbour Town. Fitzpatrick is one of nine top-25 players in the field in the final leg of the Florida Swing. In that group is defending champion Viktor Hovland along with a quartet of major champions in Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spuan, Justin Thomas and Keegan Bradley. FedExCup leader Jacob Bridgeman is in the field as well after a strong T5 showing at THE PLAYERS.
2026 marks the 25th edition of the Valspar Championship. Four different players have won the event more than once, including a pair of successfully defended titles in recent years by Paul Casey (2018-19) and Sam Burns (2021-22). The Copperhead Course is quite different than many of the other courses the PGA Tour goes to in Florida in that it has a lot more elevation changes. There is also a lot less water danger than on the other three courses in the Florida Swing. It has really become a ball-striker's paradise, as you need to execute shots working it all types of directions to shoot quality scores.
Speaking of scores, the winning number here over the last three years has been 10-under, 12-under and 11-under. It's nice a place where we typically see a lot of circles on the scorecard. Those that can avoid mistakes and keep hitting good shots will be rewarded at the end of the week. The weather is expected to be excellent this week with daytime temperatures in the 70s and very little threat of rain. Wins is slated to average around 10-15 mph throughout the four tournament rounds. It will blow in a pretty similar direction the first three rounds and then spin around for the final round, which could create some intrigue. That said, wind is typically not as much of a factor at the Copperhead Course given how tree-lined the majority of the golf course is.
Recent Champions
2025 - Viktor Hovland (-11)
2024 - Peter Malnati (-12)
2023 - Taylor Moore (-10)
2022 - Sam Burns (-17)
2021 - Sam Burns (-17)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Paul Casey (-8)
2018 - Paul Casey (-10)
2017 - Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016 - Charl Schwartzel (-7)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Proximity 175-225 Yards/Bogey Avoidance
Champion's Profile
The Copperhead Course is a pure shot-maker's golf course. You have to be able to move the ball in both directions both off the tee and into the green. Most of the holes are framed by trees and if you are too close to one side, you can be blocked out from a direct line to the hole. Ask any player who has played this event regularly and they will tell you it's all about hitting greens in regulation. Well to do that, you also need to be finding fairways. Driver usage is way down on this course compared to PGA Tour average. Everyone knows you can't score if you aren't putting yourself in position off the tee.
Because of using some fairway woods and irons off tees, the average approach distance is a little longer than average. I'll be locked into the 175-225 yard range as a key separator, especially considering there are five lengthy par-3s on this course. SG: Around-the-Green, scrambling and bogey avoidance all should come into play as well this week. Thick rough has been brought in closer to the greens in recent years, which has made the scrambling percentage on average a fair amount lower. It's always nice to have the putter working too, but you can get away with it here if you are hitting quality shots. The greens won't be anywhere near as slick as we saw at Sawgrass.
The Copperhead Course is an execution test. The holes are going to frame each shot, it's up to you to pull it off. The man who does it the best will be holding the trophy on Sunday afternoon.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Xander Schauffele ($12,200)
Schauffele is certainly trending. He is coming off a strong third place showing at TPC Sawgrass which was preceded by three straight top-25s. Last week he led the field in SG: Approach and was T5 in GIR's. Schauffele gained over 11(!) strokes on approach at the Valspar last year en route to his third top-15 finish in as many starts in this tournament. Everything feels like it's lining up this week for Schauffele.
Viktor Hovland ($11,900)
The defending champion is not far off. He led at TPC Sawgrass in SG: Around-the-Green, which has normally been the weakest part of his game, on his way to a T13 finish, which was his fourth top-15 result in his last six starts. Hovland grades out well in the model considering how strong he is on approach. He has putted very well in all three career starts at Innisbrook, which includes a T3 in 2021 in addition to the win last year.
Jacob Bridgeman ($10,900)
I was shocked at this number. Bridgeman leads the FedExCup Standings after his T5 finish at Sawgrass, which was his seventh straight top-20 finish to begin the campaign. He was also solo third at the Valspar last year. Bridgeman ranked very high in the model I put together that didn't even include any putting metrics. He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Putting and putts per GIR.
The Middle Tier
Corey Conners ($10,300)
Conners is a player who excels at executing shots. He is always in complete control of his golf ball and that will serve him well at this course. Conners ranked sixth last week at TPC Sawgrass in SG: Approach en route to a T13 finish. It's surprising to me he hasn't played Innisbrook more than three times considering how well his strengths should be rewarded there. That said, Conners has gone T16-T21-T8 in those three starts.
Ryo Hisatsune ($10,000)
Hisatsune was a player I was high on going to Sawgrass and he delivered a solid T13 finish. His stellar ball striking and tidy short game is something you can count on at difficult golf courses, which means he should fair quite well at Innisbrook. Hisatsune ranks top 25 on Tour in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and driving accuracy. Perhaps is shouldn't come as a surprise that he was T4 last year in this event.
Austin Smotherman ($9,200)
Smotherman graded out as the best course fit in the model I put together this week. A lot of that has to do with the stellar ball striking as he ranks sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 20th in driving accuracy, first in SG: Approach and eighth in GIR percentage. He has finished top-15 on three occasions this season and has gone T25-T36 in two previous appearances at this course.
The Long Shots
Max McGreevy ($9,000)
McGreevy is another terrific ball striker with value. He ranks 15th in driving accuracy and 25th GIR percentage this season. He has gained strokes off the tee, on approach and around the green in four of his last five starts. When McGreevy starts making a few more putts, he is going to in the mix quite regularly. For now take advantage of this price.
David Ford ($8,300)
Ford got into THE PLAYERS at the last second after Ryan Fox withdrew. He put in a solid effort in his first appearance and just missed the weekend by one shot. Ford struggled when he joined the PGA Tour last year after ranking No. 1 on the PGA Tour University Rankings, but he is starting to show that potential many were high on. He ranks top-30 in total driving, SG: Approach, GIR percentage and SG: Tee-to-Green. Don't be surprised if Ford is in contention this weekend.
Lee Hodges ($8,100)
Hodges was in solid position going into the weekend after rounds of 67-71, but just didn't have the weekend his was looking for going 77-77. He always has been a very strong iron player since he's been out on the PGA Tour, even if it hasn't quite been the case early in 2026. At this price, I'm going to bet that he can unlock what he did the first couple days at Sawgrass and bring that into Innisbrook where he should be a great fit.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
TPC Sawgrass and the Copperhead Course are similar tests. Both allow the player to back off of driver, but you need to put the ball in the fairway to score. From there iron play will be the true separator. Innisbrook just has more elevation changes and less water. That all to say, if you played well last week, chances are you are going to have a pretty good showing this week. This is a pretty solid field all things considered for a regular PGA Tour event that directly follows a Signature Event and THE PLAYERS Championship. You could make a decent case for any of those top options, although I think Jordan Spieth ($11,300) and Patrick Cantlay ($11,100) are priced out a little too high.
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