DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $9.1M 
Winner's Share: $1.638M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner 
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla. 
Course:  Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead) 
Yardage: 7,352
Par: 71
2025 champion: Viktor Hovland

Tournament Preview

Commissioner Brian Rolapp stood before the assembled media last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and began to lay out the future of the PGA Tour. In a wide-ranging news conference, he detailed what amounts to a two-tiered Tour. One tier will be comprised of the best golfers playing 21 to 26 big events every season. The second tier will involve mostly lesser golfers playing, um, "other" tournaments.

The Valspar clearly is targeted for the "other" category. But don't tell tournament organizers or even top players that the Valspar is an "other."

The fourth and final event of the Florida Swing features a very strong field laden with star power, even on the heels of four big tournaments coming in the past five weeks.

There is only one top-10 player on hand, but that doesn't begin to tell the story. This does: Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia and defending champion Viktor Hovland give the Valspar a big-tournament feel.

Wait, there's more. Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin. Sahith Theegala, Jacob Bridgeman, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im are also entered in the oddly-numbered 135-man field. That's down from 156 last year, with smaller fields another characteristic of the future PGA Tour.

For the Valspar Corporation, which has been the title sponsor since 2014 and only last year re-upped through 2030, this clearly is great news. Opposite the first weekend of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, they need all the help they can get.

As we've seen throughout the four-event Florida Swing, all the courses have the potential to be brutes, Last year, Copperhead showed its teeth (fangs?) as the sixth hardest course on Tour, with Hovland winning at 11-under par.

After a couple of years in 2021-22 in which Sam Burns won both times at 17-under, they grew the rough nearly an inch to 3.75 inches and minimized the width of the intermediate cut around the greens from 72 inches to 21, bringing the rough closer to the greens. That added an increased emphasis on scrambling and lowered scores.

Copperhead, the only course this tournament has ever known since beginning in 2000, is not your traditional Florida track. The 1971 Larry Packard design is extremely narrow and tree-lined with numerous dog legs and plenty of undulations, and is situated on the west coast of the state by the Gulf of Mexico. It's also an oddity for a par-71 in that there are five par-3s and four par-5s. Other than on the par-5s, par is a good score. In fact, every par-3 and par-4 played over par last year. Long iron play, along with scrambling and putting inside 10 feet, rule the roost here. The greens are poa overseed, medium in size at an average of about 5,800 square feet and will run at a speedy 12 on the Stimpmeter. There are 74 bunkers and water on half the holes.

Not to be outdone by other courses with cute little nicknames for their hard stretches, Copperhead features the famed Snake Pit, a three-hole sequence that is one of the toughest in golf. It begins with what's usually the hardest hole on the course, the 475-yard 16th with water on the entire right side. It's followed by the long 215-yard 17th and the 445-yard 18th. They all play over par and, if the golfers aren't careful, way over par. There were 32 double bogeys or worse on 16 a year ago.

The 200-yard 13th if often the second-hardest hole on the course, so we see how much harder the back can be than the front, especially with par at 35 to the front's 36. The easiest hole is the 560-yard 1st, the shortest of the par-5s. So don't get too excited if your guy gets an opening birdie (but do be disappointed if he doesn't).

As for the weather, things look great. High temperatures will be in the 70s all four days, with almost zero chance of rain. It will be a bit windy, but that's per usual. 

Key Stats to Winning at Copperhead

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 175-200 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling 
• Strokes Gained: Putting/Putting inside 10 feet
• Par-3 Scoring, 200-225 yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2025 – Viktor Hovland
2024 – Peter Malnati
2023 – Taylor Moore
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Sam Burns
2020 – No Tournament
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin 
2016 - Charl Schwartzel

Champion's Profile

The top three guys on the leaderboard last year, winner Hovland, runner-up Thomas and solo third Bridgeman, ranked second, third and first in SG: Putting, respectively. They all did other things well, especially Hovland.

Hovland also ranked 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth on Approach, 71st Around-the-Green, T7 in greens in regulation, 25th in driving distance and 34 in driving accuracy.

Bridgeman ranked only 54th on Approach and 45th in GIR, but he also stood eighth Around-the-Green.

Two years ago, the short-hitting Malnati also excelled on the greens, ranking third in SG: Putting, plus fifth in GIR.

If ever there were a tournament where shorter hitters can prosper, this is it. Copperhead may technically be long at more than 7,300 yards for a par-71, but there are a bunch of dog legs to stifle distance, not to mention five par-3s. (Interestingly, the course considers its signature hole to be the 590-yard, double-dog-leg 14th, not one of the Snake Pit trio.)

We'll be looking at quality long iron players who are happy to play it safe. A number of years back, Casey and Hadwin were Exhibits 1 and 1A for that.

This has been one of the hardest tracks for greens in regulation, which brings scrambling into play. And more often than not, great putting has translated into success at Copperhead, especially from inside 10 feet.

The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 271.5, which 12.5 under par. 

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Xander Schauffele - $10,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: (+1050)
Schauffele is coming off a solo third at THE PLAYERS, his best showing of the season. For three rounds, he might've even been the best golfer in the tournament, If not for a horrendous 74 on Saturday, littered with bad shots, he could have won. Schauffele is clearly trending in the right direction, with two top-10s and two top-25s in his past four starts, all signature-level events or higher. His game is so balanced right now: ranked 33rd Off-the-Tee, 21st on Approach, 15th Tee-to-Green and 53rd in Putting. He has finished no worse than 12th in three visits to Copperhead.

$9,000-$9,900

Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,800 (+1450) 
Almost a year ago, Fitzpatrick had fallen to 85th in the OWGR. He's now back to No. 15. He's coming off a heartbreaking runner-up at THE PLAYERS after leading with two holes to go. He won the DP World Tour's season-ending TOUR Championship last year. Fitzpatrick is playing at an extremely high level in 2026 in all areas except putting, ranked top-25 in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach, Tee-to-Green, greens in regulation and driving accuracy. He finished fifth here in 2022.

Justin Thomas - $9,500 (+2250) 
Thomas made incredible strides from his first start of the season at Bay Hill (dead last, MC) to his second at TPC Sawgrass (T8). After missing the start of the season while recuperating from back surgery, he's certainly fresher than all the big-name guys who are here and will be playing for the fifth time in six weeks. Thomas still had issues keeping his driver in the fairway last week, a frequent issue with his game, and that could be a problem at Copperhead. But it's hard to dismiss his track record here: runner-up last year, 10th in 2023, third in 2022 and 13th in 2021.

Brooks Koepka - $9,100 (+2600) 
After finding his putting stroke at the Cognizant, Koepka kinda lost it last week at THE PLAYERS. But other important parts of his game are going gangbusters. He's ranked top-5 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green. And even with bad putting, he was one hole away from a top-10 at TPC Sawgrass, only to double the 18th on Sunday. The last time Koepka played the Valspar, in 2022, he tied for 12th.

$8,000-$8,900

Nicolai Hojgaard - $8,900 (+3600) 
Hojgaard had finished top-25 or better in his first four starts before just missing with a T27 at THE PLAYERS. He was far better than top-25 at Phoenix, where he tied for third, and the Cognizant, where he tied for sixth. As we've noted in past weeks, Hojgaard is such an improved golfer from his first two seasons on Tour. He's a top-20 player in SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green, 26th in SG: Putting and an elite seventh in bogey avoidance. Really solid in every facet of the game.

Ryo Hisatsune - $8,600 (+4200) 
Fun fact: If the TOUR Championship started today, the 23-year-old Hisatsune would be in it. He's made 7 of 8 cuts, with three top-10s, including a co-runner-up at the Farmers, and tied for 13th last week at THE PLAYERS. So, expect him to be highly owned in most formats. Especially since he also tied for fourth here a year ago. Hisatsune has some very impressive stats: He's ranked top-25 in SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach, and top-10 in Tee-to-Green. He is THIRD in greens in regulation.

Max Homa - $8,000 (+6900) 
Homa is surely playing better this year than last year (yeah, yeah, not a high bar, we know). He's made 5 of 6 cuts, with a tie for 13th at the Cognizant and a decent T32 last week at THE PLAYERS. Long, difficult courses used to be the hallmark of Homa's game. He hasn't played here since 2021, a lifetime ago, but he tied for sixth then. He's ranked top-75 in every strokes-gained stat but Around-the-Green, and he's figured out a lot of what was wrong with his driver.

$7,000-$7,900

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,700 (+6200) 
Bezuidenhout is a very short hitter. And that presents problems. But his game is solid in most other areas. He's ranked top-25 in both SG: Putting and Around-the-Green, a decent 72nd in SG: Approach, 32nd in driving accuracy, 44th in bogey avoidance. Bezuidenhout seems just as capable of a good week as a bad one. To wit: He missed the cut here last year, tied for ninth the year before.

Austin Smotherman - $7,400 (+5300) 
Smotherman is bound to be a popular DFS play at this price, especially after a tie for 13th at THE PLAYERS and a shared runner-up at the Cognizant. And when you lead the Tour in SG: Approach, well, that just makes him even more attractive. Smotherman is ranked only 134th in SG: Putting, but he's far better inside of 10 feet. That may be why he's ranked 34th in bogey avoidance.

Mac Meissner - $7,400 (+7400)
Meissner made his first four cuts of the season, including a top-20 at Phoenix, before missing his past two in Florida. He's ranked top-40 in SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green and greens in regulation, and that's pretty darn good in this field, certainly in the lower $7,000s. Meissner just missed top-25s here the past two years, finishing 26th and then 28th.

$6,000-$6,900

Zecheng Dou - $6,700 (+18500) 
The $6,000s are a real struggle this week. But Dou is ranked 13th on Tour in SG: Approach, and that's always a safe place to go. He had been 6-for-6 in cuts until missing last week at THE PLAYERS. He has top-20s at the WMPO and Cognizant. Dou's biggest trouble area is keeping his drives in the fairway, and that's not optimal for Copperhead. But there are no perfect player in the $6,000s.

A.J. Ewart - $6,500 (+28000) 
The 26-year-old Canadian began the season as one of the five Q School grads -- a dying breed. He's made 5-of-7 cuts this season, highlighted by a tie for 13th at the Cognizant. Ewart is ranked in the top-100 in every strokes-gained metric but Around-the-Green, and that's not half bad at this price. He's also top-60 in bogey avoidance. As good as the field was at the top, with so many big names, it faded very far very fast. 

Looking to thrive in the Valspar Championship? See how they look in RotoWire's PGA DFS Lineup Optimizer.