RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads north of the border for Canada's National Open for this week's RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course). It will be the second straight year that TPC Toronto is hosting (will be the venue in 2027 as well), and this event has moved around a lot with a different host every year since 2022. Although the lead-in to next week's U.S. Open is not a signature event, the field still consists of seven of the top-20 players in the OWGR, highlighted by tournament favorite Tommy Fleetwood at +1150. Last year, Ryan Fox (80-1) defeated Sam Burns with a birdie on the fourth playoff hole for his second Tour victory. 

With only one year of data to draw from, unfortunately, we don't have the usual course history and metrics to draw from. With that said, we can see that 11 of the 18 holes played under-par last year for the par-70, 7,389 yard layout, so there are scoring opportunities despite only two par-5s, which come on the first and last holes. The par-4 sixth hole is driveable and there are a pair of par-3s under 160 yards. The 16th and 17th holes were the two most difficult last year, which makes sense considering both par-4s are over 510 yards. Off the tee, the landing areas are generous with the fairways averaging nearly 40 yards wide and there isn't much penalty in terms of bunkering, water hazards or penal rough to not give at least a slight boost to the longer hitters. We will also see a lot of wedge and long approaches this week, and I prefer to target good long iron players from 200-250 yards to take advantage of the long par-3s and par-4s. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday

Current Form

These five golfers have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined per round across their last 20 rounds:

• Kristoffer Reitan: 1.29
• Justin Rose: 1.14
• Michael Brennan: 1.05
• Aaron Rai: 1.04
• Brooks Koepka: 1.01

What a run it has been for Reitan the last couple months. After adjusting slowly in his rookie campaign coming over from the DP World Tour with only one top-25 through the first three months, the Norweigian won a signature event last month and was third at Muirfield Village in SG: Approach en-route to a T6 finish. His play has the attention of the oddsmakers, who have him at 25-1. Meanwhile, Rai (41-1) similarly had a sluggish start to the year but that seems irrelevant following his dominating victory at the PGA Championship last month. He skipped this event last year but when you're one of the most accurate drivers on Tour and top-20 in SG: Approach, there aren't going to be many courses that don't fit your eye. 

RBC Canadian Open Bets: Outright Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (12-1)

With four wins and a runner-up across his last 14 worldwide starts, 12-1 in a non-signature event seems too high for Fitzpatrick. He ranks in the top-10 in SG: Approach, around-the-green, tee-to-green and total. The putter has been streaky as of late, but if he finds some form there, I have to think he contends.

Alex Noren (37-1)

Following a strong finish to 2025 that had Noren as high as 11th in the OWGR, he's finally showing that form again with a pair of top-10s across his last three signature events. A two-time DP World Tour winner last year, Noren is prone to spike weeks.

Mac Meissner (65-1)

Meissner made the cut in his first trip to the Memorial and was hot leading in with three top-10s in his prior four starts. At 37th in SG: Total, Meissner has played well this year and should benefit from the drop in field strength.  

RBC Canadian Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+480)

Coming off a top-10 hit with Alex Fitzpatrick last week, I'll start this section off with Yellamaraju. The 24-year-old is having a strong rookie campaign with six top-20s, which has been led by his driving play. Yellamaraju ranks in the top-50 in distance and accuracy and is 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green. He was able to see the course last year and the Canadian will have plenty of crowd support.

Zach Bauchou (+830)

Speaking of rookies, Bauchou is trending in the right direction with a top-25 in each of his last four starts and now has seven top-25s across 14 events. He was fifth in SG: Approach in his last start at Colonial at was T6 at the Byron Nelson. 

Jackson Suber (+1025)

Suber played well here last year with a top-20 and was notably eighth in SG: Approach. Iron play has been his forte, which helped lead to a solo fourth at TPC Craig Ranch a few weeks ago. Suber has also been driving the ball better, gaining strokes off-the-tee in four straight events.

RBC Canadian Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup

Justin Rose (-104) over Collin Morikawa

We know from the earlier list that Rose's ball striking has been in good form, leading to three results of T12 or better in marquee events over his last five. He was second in SG: Tee-to-Green last week as well. He's the underdog in this matchup against Morikawa, who will be making his debut at the venue. After a strong stretch this spring, he's cooled off with results of T62-T55 in his last two and noticeably struggled with his long game in those events.

RBC Canadian Open Bets: First Round Leader

Bud Cauley (54-1)

Cauley returned after pulling out before Colonial, and showed no signs of any injury with a solid T22 at Muirfield Village. He'll get the more favorable weather conditions Thursday morning and has posted a couple of top-10 opening rounds in signature events this year. The veteran ranks 29th in SG: Tee-to-Green this year. 

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