John Deere Classic Betting Preview
Silvis, Illinois
TPC Deere Run - Par 71 - 7,327 yards
Field - 144 entrants
Purse - $8.8M
A muggy Midwestern summer forecast looms in the Quad Cities region this week as TPC Deere Run plays host to the John Deere Classic on the heels of Viktor Hovland's Monday morning playoff win over World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in Connecticut, notching his eighth career victory at the final Signature Event of 2026. While most of the PGA Tour's household names take the week off before traveling across the pond for the upcoming Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship, John Deere drew Ben Griffin and Chris Gotterup as this week's tournament favorites, so there are definitely fewer elites to worry about when we sift through our betting options. Despite underwhelming field strength, expect a plethora of scoring chances at TPC Deere Run where at least 40 players have finished in double-digit red numbers at each of the last eight editions of this event.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday
John Deere Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Jackson Koivun (27-1)
Koivun just followed up one of the greatest collegiate careers of all time with a top-25 effort at the U.S. Open in his final start as an amateur. Now slated to make his professional debut this week at TPC Deere Run, Koivun's 27-1 outright price may appear steep on its surface, but considering the state of nearby Jordan Spieth's (24-1) game for example, we're not getting bamboozled on Koivun's 27-1, especially considering he might be the best player in this field when we look back a year from now. One of my hotter 2025 takes was that he should've been a captain's pick on last fall's Ryder Cup team, so I hope we at least get to see him at Medinah this September, and a win this week would go a long way in making that happen.
Tom Kim (35-1)
Sitting No. 1 among this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and second in SG: Tee-to-Green within this same frame, Kim is coming off a solo-third at the U.S. Open where he gained north of four strokes both with his irons and with the flat stick. Outside of the aforementioned Gotterup and Griffin, there's definitely a lack of firepower atop this board, so I think we're getting a slight discount on Kim's current form due to a missed cut in his John Deere Classic debut last year.
Emiliano Grillo (84-1)
Given the fact that second place pays out the same exact amount (zilch) as DFL in the outright market, I like targeting volatile, ceiling-capable players like Grillo, who's also been close here with a pair of runner-up finishes in 2022 and 2025. Over the past two months, Grillo ranks fourth among the field in FIR percentage and 10th in SG: Ballstriking across 20 measured rounds. He leaned on that accurate driver en route to back-to-back top-25s in his last two outings at the RBC Canadian Open and the U.S. Open.
John Deere Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers (Inc. Ties)
Blades Brown (+460)
The 19-year-old JDC debutant owns two top-10s through seven starts to go along with a pair of top-3 results at the Korn Ferry Tour level in 2026. During his most recent outing on the PGA Tour at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, he ranked third among the field in GIR percentage, fifth in par-4 scoring and eighth in SG: Approach en route to 22 total birdies and a T14 finish.
Johnny Keefer (+475)
Keefer's short game is concerning enough to restrict his win equity, but at a birdie fest like the JDC with a 71.3 average GIR percentage from 2021-2025, you're already falling behind enough as it is if you're spending too much time chipping around the greens. A top-10 wager allows for Keefer to make a couple mistakes from in close over the course of 72 holes, but you still gain access to his immense upside as the No. 1 player in this week's field from a SG: Ballstriking (0.95/round) perspective this season (min. 24 rounds).
John Deere Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup
Tom Kim (-120) over Rickie Fowler
We've already made the bull case for Kim above, but a pretty evident bear case exists for Fowler on the opposite end of the spectrum as well, setting us up for a prime tournament matchup opportunity. Fowler has placed just T38-MC-MC-MC-T60 over his past five starts dating back to the PGA Championship, descending to 95th in SG: Approach and 102nd in SG: Putting over his last 16 rounds. Fowler has gone ice cold with the flat stick, and similarly to Kim, he's relatively inexperienced at TPC Deere Run.
John Deere Classic Bets: Region
A.J. Ewart - Top Canadian (+510)
Outside of Sudarshan Yellamaraju, there aren't many formidable foes in this market, and I think Ewart's +510 Top Canadian number is a better play than his +370 for a top-20, considering such a result could be enough to hit on this, anyways. Placing T29-T17-T19 since THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, Ewart ranks first among this field in SG: Putting, fourth in putting from 5-10 feet, fifth in SG: Total and 26th in SG: APP over his last 12 rounds. Given the course fit is there from an analytical perspective, I don't care that it's his JDC debut, and that aspect helps lend us more favorable odds.
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