Every year there are diamonds in the rough in fantasy football. If we found those gems, they may have helped us win championships. That said, many players who surprise us one year will have inflated price tags in the following year's drafts. Let's look at this year's biggest values and consider their 2023 fantasy value.
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Preseason ADP: QB18)
Drew Lock started the last preseason game for the Seahawks. Three interceptions later, Lock was out and Geno Smith was named the Week 1 starter. With just five uninspiring starts in the previous seven seasons, how were fantasy managers expected to see his career year coming? He was one of two quarterbacks to throw multiple TD passes in 12 games — the other was Patrick Mahomes — and he led the league in completion percentage (69.8) on his way to finishing QB5 in fantasy. It seems likely he'll be Seattle's starting quarterback next year, but he probably should be drafted as a borderline fantasy starter in 12-team leagues.
Trevor Lawrence (Preseason ADP: QB17)
As a rookie, Lawrence struggled with a 12:17 TD:INT while averaging 214 yards per game. Entering 2022, Christian Kirk was easily his best receiver. As a result, the fantasy world viewed Lawrence as a reserve in single-QB leagues. While he finished QB7 to easily outplay his ADP, he had a pair of hot streaks along with 10 games in which he threw one or fewer touchdown passes. He needs another upgrade to his weapons before being
Every year there are diamonds in the rough in fantasy football. If we found those gems, they may have helped us win championships. That said, many players who surprise us one year will have inflated price tags in the following year's drafts. Let's look at this year's biggest values and consider their 2023 fantasy value.
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Preseason ADP: QB18)
Drew Lock started the last preseason game for the Seahawks. Three interceptions later, Lock was out and Geno Smith was named the Week 1 starter. With just five uninspiring starts in the previous seven seasons, how were fantasy managers expected to see his career year coming? He was one of two quarterbacks to throw multiple TD passes in 12 games — the other was Patrick Mahomes — and he led the league in completion percentage (69.8) on his way to finishing QB5 in fantasy. It seems likely he'll be Seattle's starting quarterback next year, but he probably should be drafted as a borderline fantasy starter in 12-team leagues.
Trevor Lawrence (Preseason ADP: QB17)
As a rookie, Lawrence struggled with a 12:17 TD:INT while averaging 214 yards per game. Entering 2022, Christian Kirk was easily his best receiver. As a result, the fantasy world viewed Lawrence as a reserve in single-QB leagues. While he finished QB7 to easily outplay his ADP, he had a pair of hot streaks along with 10 games in which he threw one or fewer touchdown passes. He needs another upgrade to his weapons before being confidently drafted as a top-8 quarterback next season.
Jared Goff (Preseason ADP: QB24)
The previous three seasons, Goff averaged 20 touchdown passes. With seemingly little upside along with the occasional implosion game, the fantasy community was out on him entering this season. However, he finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback and posted at least 25 fantasy points four times in a five-game stretch ending Week 17. There were enough bad performances, though, to cast doubt on him being a reliable weekly fantasy starter. He'll be a prime target in leagues that require two quarterbacks in 2023. But in single-quarterback leagues, he should be drafted outside the top 12.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs (Preseason ADP: RB24)
Few could have predicted Jacobs' breakout. Despite heavy usage, he never had more than 1,316 scrimmage yards in his first three seasons. He failed to pass four yards per carry in his previous two seasons. Then, the Raiders declined his fifth-year option, which cast doubt on his 2022 role. To seemingly prove the point, Las Vegas drafted Zamir White in the fourth round as the heir apparent. To say Jacobs was the lead back was a massive understatement. He had 393 touches while setting career highs in yards per carry (4.9), rushing yards (1,653) and receiving yards (400). Jacobs was easily the best draft value in 2022 — his ADP was RB24, but he finished RB1. He's expected to hit free agency unless the Raiders slap the franchise tag on him. Do we pay for the career year in 2023 drafts? Was he motivated to play for a new contract? Will he go back to career norms? He'll certainly be a top-12 pick in drafts, and entering his age-25 season, he'll be worth the high draft capital.
Miles Sanders (Preseason ADP: RB33)
In 2021, Sanders split work with Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell and even Jordan Howard. His touches the prior two seasons went from 192 to 163 (12 games played each season). Drafting him this season outside the top-30 running backs seemed logical. But Sanders had 259 carries for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Still, in some ways, it was the least efficient year of his career. His 4.9 yards per carry was nearly half a yard lower than in either of his prior two seasons, and his 3.9 yards per reception was the first time in his career he had fewer than six yards per reception. He was also erratic. He failed to reach 8.5 PPR points in seven games, including all three of the fantasy playoff weeks, with three massive games to inflated fantasy value. The significant number of floor games will make him tough to trust as a top-12 running back next season. If he's available outside of that range in 2023 drafts, his value will be reasonable.
Jamaal Williams (Preseason ADP: RB51)
Williams was a popular late-round running back pick. He played like an early round pick. Williams finished RB9, thanks to a league-high 17 rushing touchdowns as the Lions used him as the goal-line back. He was most dominate in the first half of the season, though, posting at least 22.6 PPR points in four of his first 10 games. He mostly faded down the stretch — in Weeks 14-16, he failed to hit four PPR points in any game before going off against Chicago in Week 17 for 157 scrimmage yards and a score. Caution is required when considering him in 2023 drafts. His volume and touchdowns likely will see major regression.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper (Preseason ADP: WR35)
Although Cooper is talented, knowing that Jacoby Brissett would be his quarterback was enough to scare away fantasy managers. Cooper responded with five games with at least 101 yards and a touchdown. After Week 1, he failed to reach 40 yards just twice. After Deshaun Watson took over as the starting quarterback, Cooper's touchdowns (he scored in six of his first 10 games) mostly dried up. He didn't score again until Week 17. If Watson returns in 2023 to the form he showed prior in his career, Cooper should be drafted in the top-12 wide receivers. He'll be entering his age-29 season, so decline shouldn't yet be an issue.
DeVonta Smith (Preseason ADP: WR37)
Smith was solid as a rookie, posting 916 yards and five touchdowns with an emerging Jalen Hurts at quarterback. But once the Eagles added A.J. Brown in the draft, it was fair to wonder how many opportunities there would be for Smith in an offense that was projected to be run heavy. In Week 1, Smith had no catches on four targets, and the detractors seemed justified. And through eight games, he had fewer than 24 yards on four occasions, so there were still concern. However, from Week 11 on, he was a beast. Smith was targeted at least eight times in every game. He posted at least 50 yards in each contest while surpassing 100 yards four times. As a result, he ended the year as WR9. Ideally, he'll fall to the third round in next season's fantasy drafts, where he'll provide excellent value. But if his ADP settles into the late-second round, a case can be made to draft him there at fair value.
Christian Kirk (Preseason ADP: WR38)
Yes, the Jaguars overpaid when giving Kirk a four-year $72 million contract. Fantasy managers clearly agreed when drafting him outside the top-36 wide receivers. But the slot receiver was Trevor Lawrence's top pass catcher, posting 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. Despite finishing as the WR11, he had a few too many down weeks. On six occasions, he was limited to 8.3 or fewer PPR points with two coming in the fantasy playoffs. As good as Kirk is, it seems likely that Jacksonville will add to its receiver group this offseason. Drafting Kirk right at about WR20 seems like the right price to pay.
Zay Jones (Preseason ADP: WR141)
No, Zay Jones is not an elite player. But being a starting wide receiver with an emerging quarterback is sometimes all it takes. After going undrafted in most fantasy leagues, Jones ended the season WR31. He posted at least 40 yards nine of his first 13 games before disappearing in the last two weeks of fantasy playoffs, where he failed to score a TD or reach 25 yards. He was an excellent flex option for those in deeper leagues. Jones could face more WR competition next season. Those drafting early should think carefully before using a premium pick on him.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram (Preseason ADP, TE20)
After five years with the Giants, Engram moved to Jacksonville in free agency. And after his 2017 rookie season, Engram had not posted more than 654 yards or three touchdowns in a season. Fantasy managers were not excited about him and allowed him to fall way down draft boards. Although he had just 98 targets, Engram was efficient and effective. He recorded career highs in receptions (73) and yards (766) while scoring four times. That production made him TE4. During the season, he failed to reach five PPR points on six occasions. But at tight end, that's not surprising. Conversely, he recorded at least 10.7 PPR points nine times. It was clear the Jaguars understood how to use Engram's speed and size to their advantage. With strong quarterback play, there's no reason to let him fall outside the top-8 tight ends in 2023 drafts.
Juwan Johnson (Preseason ADP: TE78)
Johnson came into the league in 2020 as a converted college wide receiver. As often happens, fantasy analysts get excited about the potential of such a player playing tight end and when the player doesn't pay dividends quickly, the excitement fades. Although he scored four touchdowns in 2022, he had 13 catches in 14 games, resulting in 159 yards. That wasn't nearly enough usage to make him a target in most fantasy drafts. Also, Adam Trautman was viewed as the top receiving option at tight end for the Saints. However, Johnson played at least 40 snaps in most games since Week 1. He posted at least 40 yards in eight games. He also scored seven touchdowns in a seven-game span that ended in Week 15. Part of his success had to do with the Saints' lack of depth at wide receiver. So if the team addresses that depth, it could be at Johnson's expense. That said, he played very well this year, and he should be considered a top-12 tight end in next year's drafts.
Tyler Conklin (Preseason ADP: TE80)
During the majority of preseason, fantasy managers drafted Conklin's teammate, C.J. Uzomah, ahead of Conklin in two-TE leagues. During the middle of training camp, word leaked that Conklin was the preferred receiving option. Actually, Conklin's 552 yards and three touchdowns were similar to his production with the Vikings in 2021. However, Conklin was volatile as a fantasy option, but most of that had to do with the revolving door at quarterback in New York. And having to play games with Zach Wilson was far from optimal. If the Jets solve their quarterback situation in the offseason, Conklin could be in contention as a top-15 option at tight end. But until they do so, he'll be a risky fantasy option.
