2026 Stats
W-L
3-6
ERA
4.56
WHIP
1.43
K
80
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
After a career year in 2024 that saw Lugo entrench himself as an MLB starter with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 206.2 innings, he took a step back last season before missing all of September due to a back injury. The right-hander actually delivered a strong first half in 2025 with a 2.67 ERA, but he stumbled out of the All-Star break and never got back on track, surrendering 37 earned runs over 44.1 frames in his final nine starts. Lugo especially struggled with free passes during the second half, as his 4.9 BB/9 nearly doubled his first-half mark of 2.8. The long ball was also an issue, with his 1.7 HR/9 ranking seventh worst among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Lugo primarily worked as a reliever early in his MLB career but has been a full-time starter the past three seasons, with him being very effective in those first two years. It's possible the heavier workload has started to catch up with him -- particularly after throwing 200-plus innings during 2024 -- but that's not quite enough to fully write him off for 2026. Lugo's 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across the past three seasons offer plenty of fantasy value, but his 8.1 K/9 during that stretch limits his upside, especially coming off a down year. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a two-year, $46 million contract extension with the Royals in July of 2025. Contract includes $20 million vesting option or $17 million team option ($3 million buyout) for 2028.
Escapes with no-decision
Lugo did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Mets, allowing nine runs (six earned) on nine hits and two walks while striking out four over 4.1 innings.
Analysis
Lugo got off to a nightmare start in the first inning after his throwing error on a Carson Benge groundball was followed by two more Royals infield errors, allowing Benge to circle the bases for a Little League three-run "home run." The right-hander didn't recover, later serving up two real homers to A.J. Ewing and Juan Soto. Fortunately for Lugo, Kansas City's offense erupted for nine runs of their own while he was in the game, sparing him the loss. He has struggled since the start of June, posting a 6.98 ERA. On the year, Lugo owns a 4.56 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 80:32 K:BB across 100.2 innings and he's lined up to make one final start before the All-Star break on the road against Baltimore.
Lugo got off to a nightmare start in the first inning after his throwing error on a Carson Benge groundball was followed by two more Royals infield errors, allowing Benge to circle the bases for a Little League three-run "home run." The right-hander didn't recover, later serving up two real homers to A.J. Ewing and Juan Soto. Fortunately for Lugo, Kansas City's offense erupted for nine runs of their own while he was in the game, sparing him the loss. He has struggled since the start of June, posting a 6.98 ERA. On the year, Lugo owns a 4.56 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 80:32 K:BB across 100.2 innings and he's lined up to make one final start before the All-Star break on the road against Baltimore.
Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
89
Last 10 Games
85
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2026
-16%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024vs Left | .269 | 223 | 87 | 265 | 34 | |||
| Since 2024vs Right | .216 | 163 | 48 | 157 | 23 | |||
| 2026vs Left | .302 | 55 | 24 | 78 | 6 | |||
| 2026vs Right | .254 | 25 | 8 | 34 | 8 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .272 | 67 | 31 | 88 | 21 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .203 | 58 | 24 | 45 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .246 | 101 | 32 | 99 | 7 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .211 | 80 | 16 | 78 | 9 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-9%
ERA at Home
2026
-30%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024Home | 3.55 | 1.28 | 240.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | ||||
| Since 2024Away | 3.91 | 1.17 | 212.0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | ||||
| 2026Home | 3.83 | 1.44 | 56.1 | 6.9 | 3.7 | ||||
| 2026Away | 5.48 | 1.42 | 44.1 | 7.5 | 1.8 | ||||
| 2025Home | 3.61 | 1.36 | 77.1 | 7.3 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2025Away | 4.76 | 1.22 | 68.0 | 8.2 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.36 | 1.14 | 107.0 | 7.0 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 2.62 | 1.03 | 99.2 | 8.8 | 2.1 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.50K/9
7.2BB/9
2.9HR/9
1.3Fastball
91.6 mphERA
4.56WHIP
1.43BABIP
.325GB/FB
1.03Left On Base
69.1%Exit Velocity
82.5 mphBarrels/BBE
5.7%Spin Rate
2518 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
26.3%Swinging Strike
7.8%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
No team allocated free agent starting pitching dollars more wisely than the Royals last offseason. Michael Wacha was great and Lugo was even better, winning 16 games and finishing with an even 3.00 ERA over a league-high 33 starts. A 21.7 percent strikeout rate left something to be desired, but Lugo provided so much volume with a surprising 206.2 innings that he accumulated 181 strikeouts, which tied him for 20th in baseball. It looked from July to August like the former reliever might be tiring as he put up a 4.86 ERA, but Lugo bounced back with a 2.28 ERA and 26:4 K:BB in 27.2 September innings. Perhaps the big workload increase will catch up with Lugo in 2025 instead, and some natural regression is likely either way, given his xERA of 3.72 in 2024.
More Fantasy News
Falls to Tampa Bay
Lugo (3-6) took the loss Wednesday against the Rays, allowing three runs on nine hits over six innings. He struck out seven.
Analysis
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Hit hard in loss
Lugo (3-5) took the loss Thursday against the Rays, allowing seven runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out three.
Analysis
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Collects third win of season
Lugo (3-4) earned the win Friday against the Cardinals after allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks across six innings. He didn't record a single strikeout.
Analysis
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Reinstated for Friday's start
The Royals reinstated Lugo (concussion) from the 7-day injured list to start Friday's game against the Cardinals.
Analysis
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Poised to start Friday
Lugo (concussion) is expected to be reinstated from the 7-day injured list to start Friday against the Nationals, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Unlikely to be traded
The Royals aren't expected to trade Lugo before this year's deadline, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
Analysis
Lugo is under contract until the end of the 2027 season, and while the Royals could be open to parting ways with players on expiring contracts, Lugo is expected to be off limits in the coming weeks leading up to the deadline. Lugo was struck in the head by a line drive off the bat of Brandon Nimmo in Wednesday's game against the Rangers, but a CT scan came back negative. He owns a 3.86 ERA across 79.1 innings and 14 starts this season.
Lugo is under contract until the end of the 2027 season, and while the Royals could be open to parting ways with players on expiring contracts, Lugo is expected to be off limits in the coming weeks leading up to the deadline. Lugo was struck in the head by a line drive off the bat of Brandon Nimmo in Wednesday's game against the Rangers, but a CT scan came back negative. He owns a 3.86 ERA across 79.1 innings and 14 starts this season.