2026 NFL Contract Analysis: Alec Pierce Laps the Field at Wide Receiver

RotoWire's Jerry Donabedian breaks down contract details for wide receivers from 2026 NFL free agency, highlighting the the biggest surprises and key fantasy implications.
2026 NFL Contract Analysis: Alec Pierce Laps the Field at Wide Receiver

Top NFL free agents mostly sign within a matter of days once negotiating opens during the second week of March. It then takes a few weeks for accurate contract details to emerge, after initial reports often exaggerated numbers or failed to mention a crucial aspect. (Stay up to date on all the latest signings and rumors with RotoWire's Free Agent Tracker.)

Last week, I broke down contracts for the top free-agent signings at running back (and then at quarterback), including some major surprises like new Jaguars RB Chris Rodriguez handily out-earning Rachaad White. Now it's time to turn our attention to wide receivers, starting with a guy who lapped the field without leaving home.

Note: All contract info comes from Spotrac.com and OverTheCap.com.

Tier 1

It isn't just the Colts and fantasy analysts who are buying into Pierce's breakout. There was no hometown discount here, with the rumor mill suggesting that a slew of teams had big-time interest. In the end, Pierce got $60 million guaranteed at signing, sixth-most among current WR contracts. He's a bit lower for average annual value, ranking 12th at $28.5 million, but that still puts him ahead of big(ger) names like Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith

Granted, those guys all signed extensions with the knowledge that they'd almost certainly be franchise-tagged if they ever actually reached the cusp of free agency. Pierce got lucky there, thanks to his late-ish breakout and the Colts' decision to use their offseason tag on QB Daniel Jones.

A 2022 second-round pick, Pierce served as a low-volume deep threat for his first three NFL seasons, topping out at 37-824-7 (on 69 targets) in 2024, when his 30 deep targets (20+ yards) tied for second most in the league. He then drew 28 deep targets in 2025, again ranking second, but this time he also got 55 targets that weren't 20+ yards downfield (compared to 36 in 2024).

With four TDs and 218 yards over the final two weeks of last season, Pierce snuck over 1,000 yards despite missing two and a half games with a concussion early in the season. He averaged 66.9 yards and 5.6 targets per game, up from 51.5 yards on 4.3 targets the year before. 

Pierce led all qualified pass catchers in yards per catch (21.2) and ranked second in yards per target (11.9), improving his already-strong efficiency despite being targeted at a higher rate (18.7% of routes, up from 16.0% in 2024). That improved number, 18.7%, is still low relative to other WRs in Pierce's salary range and best-ball ADP range (Round 6). 

However, there's reason for optimism that the number will continue rising in the absence of Michael Pittman (traded to Pittsburgh). In fact, we already saw Pierce do this for a stretch last season, with a 21.2% target rate between Week 6 (when he came back from concussion protocol) and Week 14 (when Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury). Pierce averaged 74.8 yards on 6.8 targets per game during that stretch, giving us a glimpse of the upside argument for 2026. 

My main concern here is that Jones, coming back from major surgery, simply won't be good enough to support lofty production from a downfield-oriented WR. It helps to have Shane Steichen as the playcaller, but Josh Downs and Tyler Warren may benefit more than Pierce if the QB play is lacking.

              

Tier 2

These contracts are similar, with full guarantees through two seasons but no real protection thereafter (Doubs does have a $4 million injury guarantee for 2028, at least). There aren't many other WR contracts in this same range — our closest comparison would be Jakobi Meyers' three-year, $60 million extension with Jacksonville.

Robinson's reunion with Brian Daboll hurts the breakout case for second-year wideouts Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor, especially when combined with Calvin Ridley's contract renegotiation (he accepted a smaller salary but got $12.5 million of it guaranteed). Ridley also has history with Daboll, albeit back in college at Alabama.

For now, I'm penciling in Robinson and Ridley as starters, with Dike, Ayomanor and maybe a rookie also in the mix. Robinson has largely worked from the slot throughout his career, which isn't ideal for Dike's development.

As for Doubs... so much depends on whether or not the Patriots eventually trade for A.J. Brown. The fantasy argument for Doubs is that he's a decent player in an excellent situation, not that he's some hidden gem/star. The situation becomes suddenly not-so-excellent if the Patriots sign a much, much better wide receiver.

Meanwhile, the combination of a Doubs signing and AJB rumors has ended any slight enthusiasm I might've had for Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas. They're not bad players, but the Patriots seemingly want them in part-time roles if upgrades are available at a reasonable price. The recent Dontayvion Wicks trade (to Philadelphia) perhaps reduces the odds of Boutte or Douglas being included in a trade to Philly, but it's still on the table. The Eagles could set up a competition between Wicks, Hollywood Brown, a rookie and Bourne/Douglas for spots Nos. 2-4 at WR behind new No. 1 DeVonta Smith.

             

Tier 3

Much of Shaheed's utility comes from special teams, which means his perceived value as a WR is well south of $17 million per year. I've long been a fan, but I'm also a fan of Tory Horton. And then the Seahawks still owe Cooper Kupp guaranteed money. There's upside for more overall passing volume in Seattle in 2026, given last year's strong efficiency numbers and the current lack of backfield talent. Still, it's tough to bet on any one player (besides Jaxon Smith-Njigba) seeing more than a handful of targets per game. 

            

Tier 4

Evans signed a complicated three-year contract that includes a variety of bonuses and escalators, plus four void years. The short version? San Francisco will pay Evans around $14.3 million for this season, with no commitment beyond that. 

In 2027, it'll cost the Niners around $14.5M to keep Evans... or perhaps a few million more than that if he hits certain incentives/escalators. In 2028, the number goes down slightly to $13.7 million.

Nailor's deal is more straightforward. It's less than Cooper Kupp got from Seattle last offseason, and comparable to extensions signed by Darius Slayton and Rashod Bateman (two guys who are mostly viewed as low-end No. 2 receivers). Wideouts with low target rates and strong per-target efficiency don't usually scale up well, but I think Nailor is decent enough to handle a modest increase from ~3 targets per game up to ~5. That's fine at his current best-ball price in Rounds 14-15, where fellow RotoWire writer John McKechnie views Nailor as a potential steal.

             

Tier 5

Dotson is getting a surprising amount of money after spending the past two years in Philadelphia running clear-out routes. Maybe the Falcons saw something on tape, but they'll probably just use Dotson the same way, to clear out space for Bijan/London/Pitts underneath.

                       

Tier 6

Mooney and Kirk both have ADPs inside the Top 200 for best ball now. I guess they're fine for completing stacks, but neither played well last year, and both have contracts that hint at having to battle for a top-three role this summer.

          

Others

                    

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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