NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: South Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2026 continues ahead to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the Midwest region. Brian Williams examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Tip-off: Friday, March 27, 7:35 PM TBS/truTV

Michigan entered the tournament as the No. 3 overall seed and its play thus far has helped the Wolverines to ascend to the top spot in the KenPom rankings heading into the Sweet 16. While their stock keeps rising, the competition keeps taking hits. A suspension to Alabama's Aden Holloway and an injury to Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson has seemingly widened Michigan's pathway to the Final Four. 

Alabama enters after having dominated Texas Tech, while Iowa State survived a slow start against Kentucky and appeared to have found something during its equally impressive second-round victory. Tennessee is the only lower seed to advance after knocking off 3-seeded Virginia, though the Volunteers entered that contest as a slight favorite. 

It all appears to be set up for Michigan to steamroll its way into the Final Four, but is there another team ready to upset the apple cart and crash the party in Indianapolis? The matchups are set, so let's dive into how things will shake out in the Midwest Region. 

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No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama

Key Matchup: Labaron Philon vs. Michigan's perimeter defense. While Michigan has looked dominant throughout much of the season, there have been some holes that have begun to pop up in its perimeter defense. Michigan allowed Howard to convert on nearly half of its threes in the round of 64, while St. Louis had made 9-of-22 to stay within striking distance prior to running out of gas and missing 9-of-10 to close out the game. With no Aden Holloway, Philon is Alabama's best perimeter shooter and the biggest key to setting up his teammates from deep.  

Michigan will win IF: The Wolverines can play to their standard. The Wolverines are a one seed for a reason. I hate to keep it that simple, but I really believe it's just that simple. Updated to include the first two rounds of the tournament, Michigan boasts the sixth-most efficient offense and second-most efficient defense according to KenPom, thanks in large part to having the best collection of bigs in the country. Concurrently, they are also second in the nation in field goal-percentage differential (+12.4), ranking fourth in made field goal-percents (51.1) and third in field goal-percentage allowed (38.7). They also rank within the top 10 in rebounding differential (+8.8) and third in blocked shots (6.0). Alabama struggled significantly against the two SEC opponents most similar to Michigan in Florida and Tennessee, being held 18 points below their season average in scoring while finishing minus 37 on the glass during those three games. If the trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara can control the paint on both ends, as is their standard, the Wolverines should be in great shape to advance into the Elite Eight.

Alabama will win IF: It can make this a perimeter game. Honestly, there just doesn't appear to be many avenues for the Crimson Tide to pull off the upset. In Alabama's favor, Michigan will play into their hands when it comes to tempo and willingness to allow their opponents to shoot the three. While no power conference school attempts or makes more triples than Alabama, Michigan ranks third in the Big Ten in allowing 26.7 attempts per contest, though the Wolverines are also among the nation's best in limiting teams to just a 30.8-percent clip from deep. However, as noted above, Michigan did lose its best perimeter defender in L.J. Cason prior to the tournament and has allowed a lot of open looks to both Howard and St. Louis in the first two rounds of the tournament. In the second round, Alabama made 19 from deep at a 45.2-percent clip against a Texas Tech squad that had limited opponents to 6.9 and 32.1 respectively. Replicating that performance will help to limit Michigan's advantage inside and push the game into the 90's on the scoreboard, ultimately leading to their best chance to secure the upset. 

Player to Watch: Amari Allen, F, Alabama. We all know about the importance of Labaron Philon, but without Aden Holloway, Alabama's number two option needs to be Amari Allen. He's the team's third remaining scorer (11.6 ppg), leading rebounder (7.0 rpg), second-leading ball distributor (3.1 apg) and hits 35.1-percent from beyond the arc. However, over the past six games, Allen's numbers have dipped to 8.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, and he has shot just 2-for-21 (9.5-percent) from deep. The freshman has been moved from the four to the three since the loss of Holloway and will likely be matched up quite a bit with Yaxel Lendeborg. It's a tall task for Allen, but Alabama will need him to step up and regain his form if the Tide expect to have any chance to advance.

Prediction: We've seen this script before. Alabama struggles with size and no team better utilizes its size than Michigan. The Wolverines are accustomed to pace, so even if Alabama comes out hot, there's no reason to believe they can't keep up. Michigan's defense and size eventually wears down the Crimson Tide and the Wolverines win going away.

Sweet 16 Pick: Michigan

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No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Tennessee

Key Matchup: Tamin Lipsey vs. Ja'Kobi Gillespie. Gillespie has been on fire thus far through two rounds, totaling 50 points and 15 assists in leading the Volunteers into the tourney's second weekend for the fourth-straight season. Lipsey's defensive capabilities set the tone for Iowa State, but without Joshua Jefferson, he stepped his offense into another gear against Kentucky and played the best all-around game of his career with 26 points, 10 assists and five steals. Lipsey's one of the best on-ball defenders in the country, while Gillespie is dynamic offensively, making this matchup huge even if Iowa State were fully healthy. However, with Lipsey's increased offensive role and Gillespie also being no slouch on defense, the winner of this matchup will go a long way to determining the outcome.

Iowa State will win IF: It can account for the loss of Joshua Jefferson. The Cyclones are an efficient offensive team led by their three-point shooting, which ranks second in the Big 12 and 13th nationally at 38.7 percent. Much of that success can be attributed to All-American forward Joshua Jefferson, who also finished just behind Tamin Lipsey with nearly five assists per game. Without his inside/outside presence and his ability to screen in the half court, the onus falls almost exclusively on Lipsey to create. Against Kentucky, the answer was for Lipsey to set the tone by getting downhill. That will be a tougher task against Tennessee, as the Vols will attempt to slow the pace and make Jefferson's potential absence even more critical.

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Tennessee will win IF: It can limit the turnovers. This is a tough matchup for the Volunteers largely because of this one area. While Tennessee finished near the bottom of the SEC in turning the ball over, no power conference team was better at forcing turnovers than Iowa State, who forced 20 in their win over Kentucky. Tennessee does not want an up-tempo game, while Iowa State thrives in transition and has made a concerted effort to push the tempo in recent weeks. The best way to control the pace is to protect the basketball and limit Iowa State's transition opportunities.

Player to Watch: Milan Momcilovic, F, Iowa State. Momcilovic has had arguably the best long-range shooting season in NCAA history, connecting on 49.6 percent of his triples to surpass Kyle Korver and rank first all-time among players with at least 125 attempts from distance. Tennessee is among the stingiest teams in the nation, allowing opponents to convert on just 30.5 percent of their three-point attempts. However, Iowa State uses the screen game to pop Momcilovic free for clean looks, while his quick release makes it extra difficult on the defense. He's connected on at least five threes in a game 11 different times this season, converting at above a 50-percent clip during each of those occasions. 

Prediction: While Joshua Jefferson's status remains up in the air as of this writing, it is a long shot that he plays. Even if he does attempt to suit up, he's likely to be significantly less than full strength. While his absence opens the door for Tennessee, Iowa State seemed to find something after a slow start against Kentucky. Ever since a late-season loss to Arizona, the Cyclones have picked up the pressure defensively and the pace offensively. Tennessee struggles with turning the ball over, Iowa State excels at forcing turnovers, and that will lead to Iowa State playing at their pace. The loss of Jefferson will catch up with them at some point, but not yet.

Sweet 16 Pick: Iowa State