Here we are, the final game of the season. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with my Final Four picks, I present my prediction for the national championship.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
Connecticut 
vs. Michigan 
The Wolverines were in top form in the semifinal round against Arizona, demolishing one of the best teams in the nation as though it were a token bottom-feeder in the Big Ten. This outcome may be surprising were it not for the fact that Michigan has dismantled seemingly every team in its path in a similar manner. The Wolverines have won 29 games this season by a double-digit margin, including games against contending teams such as Tennessee, Alabama, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and now, Arizona.
For UConn to avoid joining this list, its offense will likely need to play its best game of the season, as Michigan has separated itself as the nation's best defensive team. The Wolverines' defense leads the nation in adjusted efficiency rating and effective field goal percentage allowed. They're also holding opponents to 44 percent on two-point attempts (second-best nationally) and 31 percent on three-point attempts (21st), making them consistently elite at forcing difficult shots all over the court. Additionally, Michigan's defense ranks 54th in rebounding percentage, 15th in free-throw attempt rate, and third in block percentage, further rounding out a second-to-none defense.
The Huskies have played well enough in recent games to reach this point, but at the same time, they haven't exactly scorched the nets, failing to score at least 74 points in six of their last seven games, with the one exception being an 82-point outburst against Furman in the Round of 64.
The Huskies have made big shots in close games during the tournament, but keeping Monday's game close will be challenging for obvious reasons, given the opponent, but also because UConn has a couple of offensive red flags. First, they rarely draw contact when driving, ranking 309th in free-throw attempt rate. The bigger issue, however, is that they often make unforced errors. During the Big East conference season, UConn posted the worst non-steal turnover percentage in the league.
At the other end of the court, UConn is better suited to compete, with its defense ranking eighth in adjusted efficiency, although it still faces a massive uphill battle. This is in part because, while the Huskies are elite in many defensive areas, they also have a critical flaw that may be fatal on Monday: they are among the worst teams at sending opponents to the charity stripe. UConn ranks 307th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, including the second-worst mark in the Big East during league play.
Michigan's offense, meanwhile, is nearly as good as its defense, which is saying a lot, obviously. The Wolverines' offense ranks fourth in adjusted efficiency, largely because they consistently knock down shots. They are making 61 percent of shots inside the arc (fourth) and 37 percent of shots beyond it (25th), yielding the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage nationally. They also rank 55th in rebounding percentage and 109th in free-throw attempt rate, while making 74 percent of free-throw attempts (114th). It's also worth noting that Michigan's foul-line conversion percentage has significantly improved: the Wolverines made just 70 percent of free throws during the non-conference season but made 77 percent against Big Ten opponents.
Looking at Michigan's impressive stat sheet, the numbers are even more remarkable, considering that Michigan has played the second-most difficult schedule among all D-1 teams, per KenPom.
It's tempting to take the points with a team like UConn that has "championship DNA," although I find the overwhelming dominance of the 2026 Michigan Wolverines simply too much to ignore. Given Michigan's matchup advantages, I'm betting it finishes the season the same way we've seen virtually all year. I'm laying the points with the Wolverines in what I believe will be a low-scoring game, with 75-65 as my official prediction.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan -7 and Under 144.5
There are so many ways to get in on the CBB betting action ahead of March Madness. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
Monday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Monday:
- Michigan -7
- Under 144.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
