In light of this week's news out of Indianapolis that the NCAA Men's and Women's Basketball tournaments will expand from 68 to 76 teams beginning in 2027, RotoWire.com broke down how NCAA Tournament expansion will undoubtedly benefit Power 6 teams, rather than the mid-major squads that have been on the wrong side of the bubble so often of late.
CBS Sports' Matt Norlander, reporting on the expansion deal, quoted an unnamed source inside the negotiations surrounding the expanded field, giving credence to those who assume the expanded field had to do with securing as much cash as possible for both the NCAA and universities at large:
"Because of lawsuits and settlements, the NCAA is strapped for cash. People saying it's a money grab are probably not wrong. [The NCAA] needs more money and this is probably how we're going to get it." That sentiment, plus reporting from ESPN's Pete Thamel that the decision was driven by the Power 6, led us to the data dive below.
The 68.8% Problem
Out of the 80 bubble teams across the last 10 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournaments, 68.8% (55) were from Power 6 conferences, those being the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 or SEC.
Of those NCAA Tournament bubble teams, 25 (or 31.2%) came from bona fide mid-major basketball conferences, representing a year-by-year breakdown of 5.5 Power 6 teams, to 2.5 Mid-Major squads per year.
Looking back, the most lopsided year when it came to the Power 6/mid-major distribution of bubble slots was in 2023, when seven of the final eight March Madness slots went to teams in the former camp, compared with a single one from the latter.
Conversely, the closest the March Madness bubble has come to 'parity' when broken down by those two camps was in 2021 and 2022, when both camps had four of the final eight at-large teams in the field of 68 across college basketball betting apps.
This year, six of the final eight slots went to Power 6 teams, marking the second straight tournament with such a breakdown, which gives us a pretty good idea of what the expanded bubble will look like in all likelihood come next spring.
The 2026 Bubble Was the Tipping Point
The bubble this year left no doubt about whether the NCAA would expand the field from 68, with two SEC teams (Auburn and Oklahoma) joining Big Ten traditional power Indiana in the First Four Out 2026 edition that was presented by the committee.
Throw in the fact that three Power 6 conference teams, in Seton Hall of the Big East and ACC members Virginia Tech and Stanford, were in the Next Four Out from CBS Sports and you have a better synopsis of why the NCAA and Power 6 ADs and presidents likely wanted to move on bracket expansion sooner, rather than later.
In an expanded, 76-team field, 17-16 Auburn, 19-15 Alabama and 18-14 Indiana would have made the field, while Mid-Major conference teams like North Texas, San Diego State and New Mexico would have been the lone ones to get in.
Which Conferences Cash In Under NCAA Tournament Expansion
When it comes to NCAA Tournament expansion, the conference that will most likely cash in is the ACC, which has had 17 NCAA Tournament bubble teams during the period in question, representing more schools than any individual mid-major conference during that span.
Outside of the ACC, Power 6 stalwarts like the Big 12 and Ten would be next in line to benefit the most from an expanded NCAA Tournament bubble, with each conference having nine members that qualified under such a banner, while the Big East and SEC had eight teams each.
The top mid-major conference when it came to 10-year NCAA Tournament bubble teams was the Mountain West, with six, one spot ahead of the American Conference and A-10, which had five teams apiece.
The lowest ranked Power 6 team over the last decade, bubble team wise, was the Pac-12, with four NCAA Tournament bubble teams, while the Missouri Valley, West Coast, Conference-USA and SoCon having two teams each and the Horizon League having one team during that stretch.
The Drawback Nobody's Talking About
When it comes to March Madness expansion drawbacks, the bottom line is that we'll get fewer Miami of Ohio's and more Auburn Tigers under the expanded NCAA Tournament bracket, as Power 6 conference members are far more likely to get an at-large berth than ones from the MAC or similar mid-major-level conferences.
Under the NCAA's new bracketing system, the 'First Four' will be replaced by a 12-game, 24-team round event that will be held across two sites, splitting the contests between at-large teams and teams that won their respective conference tournaments.
One downside, Cinderella wise, is that all four 16 seeds and half of the 15th seeds will be placed in the 24-team round, according to Matt Norlander of CBS Sports, while the rest will be comprised of games between 11th, 12th and 13th seeded teams in the first round, though the exact format has a lot to be worked out before next March.
All told, mid-and-low-Major conference teams figure to lose out big time under the new format, as we'll likely see more teams from those rungs play in the expanded play-in round, which could water down any bona fide upsets in the Round of 64.
The Bottom Line: A Bid Grab in 76-Team Form
At the end of the day, the bottom line from having March Madness go to 76 teams is that Power 6 conferences will get more of their members into the field, which means more tournament units for those entities, meaning millions more each year to their respective bottom lines.
A NCAA Tournament victory generates money for conferences, which is referred to as a "unit," with the 2025 total being $2 million per victory, meaning the SEC getting an extra two (or three) teams into the field would represent a huge pay day for all involved.
For now, what we know for sure is that those Power 6 conferences are all sure to benefit more from having eight more teams in the Big Dance than the mid-major collectives that have produced so many memorable moments in tournaments over the years.
