Men's College Basketball National Championship Preview: UConn vs. Michigan
No. 2 Connecticut Huskies
Matchup Overview: For the third time in four years, Connecticut will play in Monday's Championship game. The Huskies will enter the matchup with Michigan as heavy underdogs, but also having already beaten three Big 10 teams to reach this stage. A contrast in styles awaits, as UConn sits at 319th in tempo, per KenPom, while Michigan is 22nd. Otherwise, the metrics are pretty even for both sides, with minimal areas of exploitation present. How high or low scoring this game plays to will play a large factor in determining the outcome.
Strength: Versatility.
The Huskies' miracle against Duke saw them shoot 56.1 percent (23-for-41) from 2 and 21.7 percent (5-for-23) from 3. Saturday, they went 10-for-29 (34.5 percent) inside the arc and 36.4 percent (12-for-33) from outside. While they will play through Tarris Reed on the interior, he was largely invisible in the second half against a big Illinois frontcourt, and it didn't matter -- UConn found ways to get out in transition and get open looks outside.
Michigan's starting frontcourt has a massive size advantage, but Connecticut has proven capable of spreading out that size and creating cutting lanes all season, resulting in a 65.7 percent assist mark, ranking seventh nationally.
Weakness: Inconsistent guard production. All five Husky starters average in double-digits, so it's a balanced attack without a true go-to scorer. But it's also one where we aren't sure who may step up each night.
Solo Ball has scored in double-digits in three straight. He's also in a walking boot Sunday, shooting 31.9 percent from the floor in the Tournament and was held to single-digits in seven of 10 prior to this "hot" streak.
Silas Demary looked more like himself Saturday with a seven point, nine rebound, seven assist night, but he's shot better than 44.4 percent from the floor once since Valentine's Day.
Elite 8 hero Braylon Mullins has arguably been the most consistent as a scorer, but it's on volume. He was 1-or-7 inside the arch Saturday; how many floaters did you count him missing? Yes, one option seems to step up and give UConn a second scorer with Reed. But I believe they'll need two, if not all three, to be firing on all cylinders to keep this competitive.
Intangibles: Head coach Dan Hurley. He's never lost a Final Four game. Let that sink in. Even last year's early exit was a two-point loss to eventual champion Florida. Dusty May is a terrific adversary and is in his second Final Four, but Hurley is just in a different category with regards to March success. Love him (unlikely) or hate him, the guy knows how to win. There's no doubt the Huskies will have a game plan to slow down this potent Wolverine attack. Doubting him seems frivolous at this point.
Connecticut Will Win IF: It avoids long scoring droughts.
Michigan has scored at least 90 points in every game during their run to Monday; Connecticut has topped 80 once. Yes, you can argue the Huskies must force a slower tempo, but we know the Wolverines are going to score and score often; they're forth in offensive efficiency. UConn had two six-minute scoring droughts Saturday. If they have one of even three or four minutes Monday, they'll likely be behind by double-digits. Connecticut must keep Michigan within striking distance into the final four minutes.
Honorable mention to Alex Karaban, who is seeking his third ring. He's has the experience, but a very lackluster history in these big games. He's also 3-for-18 over the last two, averaging seven points. He likely needs to double that scoring mark for Connecticut to compete.
NCAA National Championship Prediction
As a UNC homer, I can't believe an Elliot Cadeau-led team is on the precipice of cutting down the nets, but perhaps that was more of a Hubert Davis issue than a Cadeau issue. This has all of the makings of a Michigan correnation rather than a competitive season finale. But there's the Hurley factor. Outside of two losses to St. John's (by nine and 20), the Huskies three additional defeats were by four, six and seven points. I don't see it here at all, I think Michigan rolls, but for the sake of an interesting column and Monday night, Connecticut finds a way to hang in. MICHIGAN 74-70.
--Written by Chris Bennett
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No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
Matchup Overview: Entering the Final Four, everyone was anticipating an epic clash between top seeds Michigan and Arizona. However, sometimes in a heavyweight fight, a knockout blow is landed early, and that's exactly what Michigan did. The Wolverines completely dismantled the Wildcats by demonstrating their superiority on both sides of the ball.
Despite their domination, there are two factors potentially standing in the way of a Michigan coronation. One is the status of star forward Yaxel Lendeborg, who suffered both a sprained ankle and sprained MCL in the win over Arizona, and while he gutted through the second half, was clearly less than 100 percent. Lendeborg insisted after the game that nothing will keep him out on Monday, but how effective he will be will go a long way toward determining Michigan's fate.
Second, it would also be unwise to dismiss UConn, who has now won 19-straight when reaching at least the Sweet 16 -- a run that dates back to 2011 and includes four National Championship wins. The Huskies' win over Illinois included a school tournament-record 12 triples, though they shot just 35.5 percent from the floor in the winning effort.
Strength: Interior Defense.
Michigan is a team laden with strengths, but its bread and butter lies in the interior. The Wolverines are the most efficient defense in the country (according to KenPom), and their strength is in their two-point defense, ranking second in the country by allowing opponents to convert on just 44.1 percent of their two-point attempts. This includes holding both Tennessee and Arizona under 40 percent in their last two games.
Additionally, Michigan ranks second with 6.1 blocks per game, a figure it has upped to 7.2 since the start of the tournament thanks in large part to the play of 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, who's rejecting 2.6 per contest. That bodes well for Michigan, as outside of star forward Tarris Reed, the Huskies don't have the size to match the Wolverines underneath and are also not a dangerous team from deep, ranking just 139th in the country with a three-point percentage of 34.6.
Weakness: Defensive turnover percentage.
Poking holes into this Michigan team is not an easy task, but if there is one, it's that the Wolverines do not force many turnovers, ranking 287th by forcing turnovers on just 14.7 percent of opponent possessions. Through four tournament games prior to Saturday, Michigan had forced just eight turnovers per game while scoring an average of 11.25 points.
However, during Saturday's demolition of Arizona, the Wolverines forced 14 turnovers and tallied 26 points, the most Arizona allowed in a game all season. UConn committed just 10.9 turnovers per game this season and only committed four during their win over Illinois, so a repeat of Michigan's outlier performance against Arizona is unlikely.
Michigan will win IF: It can control the tempo.
Considering Michigan's advantage in nearly all facets, UConn will be looking to make the game sloppy, attempting to force Michigan into long possessions, missed shots and turnovers. This worked in their second half performance against Duke, as well as in holding Illinois' second-ranked offense to their two worst offensive outputs during their two meetings.
However, Michigan is a different animal. Led by point guard Elliot Cadeau, one of the tourney's breakout stars, Michigan has had no issues playing at its own pace, becoming the first team in tournament history to score at least 90 in its first five games. As long as Michigan can continue to play its game, and there's little to suggest otherwise, they will be in great position to claim the school's second National Championship.
NCAA National Championship Prediction
For all the bravado that Dan Hurley can exhibit, even he can't match what Michigan coach Dusty May pulled off Saturday. You know a coach is supremely confident in his team when he can spend time in the stands personally scouting his next opponent while his team is still in the locker room getting ready for its own Final Four matchup later that night.
Michigan is on a mission, and its current 21.6-point margin of victory throughout the tournament would rank second among all National Championship teams since 1985 (behind only 2023-24 UConn who expunged their opponents during that year's tournament by a margin of 23.3).
The health of Yaxel Lendeborg will be a key, though Michigan dominated Arizona throughout even with a severely-limited Lendeborg, thanks in large part to the play of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson and Elliot Cadeau, along with receiving a huge boost off the bench from freshman guard Trey McKenney.
UConn is doing things we never thought we'd see in the modern era, winning an incredible 19-consecutive games in the Sweet 16 or later, with Dan Hurley boasting a mark of 11-0 in such games. Thus, counting out UConn has proven to be fool's gold over the years.
However, this Michigan team is built differently and is top-to-bottom one of the most complete outfits we've ever seen. It will take a herculean effort just for UConn to keep it competitive and I don't see that happening. UConn's incredible streak ends here as Michigan rolls and cuts down the nets for the first time since 1989. Michigan 88, Connecticut 67.
--Written by Brian Williams
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