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Saturday, May 25
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What a week it's been. Dozens of College Baseball games for me to watch from morning until morning while I sit in my living room in the dark like a degenerate weirdo. It's what I live for. There's been tons of chaos in these conference tournaments, which serves as a little appetizer for what we're about to see in the NCAA Tournament next weekend.
This weekend we're seeing the semi-finals and finals in these conference tournaments that have seen some teams playing their fifth game in five days or sixth in six. You know right now we're still riding that LSU +1200 ticket from Monday. They're playing South Carolina today to try and advance to the finals tomorrow. But another future I added on my Twitter on Monday is out in the Pac 12.
USC Trojans (+124) @ Arizona Wildcats (-160) | Total: N/A
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I grabbed Zona before the week at +410 to win the Pac 12's final tourney. USC was 10/1, so anybody who took a stab has a chance for a nice little ROI. With the Pac 12 tournament being a lot less grueling than most of the others, each team is only playing its fourth (and final) game of the week, so the pitching is a lot fresher. It's a nice surprise that we're in for a good mound showdown. It'll be USC's ace, Caden Aoki against Arizona's Cam Walty.
Aoki has had a relatively good year in 2024. His 4.24 ERA is a bit misleading since he only had one blowup start this season. He has missed some time – all of April and some of May – but in his last six outings dating back to March 15, he has only surrendered six earned runs in 28 innings. That includes a shove against Oregon State for six innings, one run allowed. His strong 42 K/9 BB ratio in 46.2 innings is also a good sign. The one terrible outing he had? Well, that was against this Arizona team. On March 8, he only went 2.2 innings and allowed NINE earned runs on nine hits.
Despite losing studs like Chase Davis (first-rounder to St. Louis in 2023), Mac Bingham (transferred to LSU), and Nik McClaughry (10th-rounder to San Diego in 2023), the Wildcats offense has still found a way to produce in what was supposed to be a down year. The Arizona approach is death by 1,000 cuts. Five hitters currently bat over .300. There's not much power on this team outside of Mason White (19 homers), who is the lone Cat in double-figure Jimmy Jacks. But they find a way to make it work. That's why they average almost seven runs per game.
The biggest shock has been the Zona weekend rotation. Friday guy, Jackson Kent has been outstanding this year, making a big jump from 2023. A couple bad outings the last few starts has caused his ERA to jump to 4.08, which is the highest of the three. Saturday guy, Clark Candiotti, has been nails this season with his 3.11 ERA. He's coming off a seven-inning, one-run, 11 K/0 BB masterpiece against Stanford last night. And the guy with the best ERA (2.76) is the Sunday guy, Walty. Zona has won nine of ihs last 10 starts.
USC gave Walty his toughest test of the season, 10 hits and four runs over 6.1 IP. The Trojans' lineup doesn't have a ton of pop, just 35 tanks as a team this year with no player in double figures. Their team average of .276 is OK. It's a team that relies on situational baseball and manufacturing runs with their 52 stolen bases out of 72 tries. USC has put up seven runs twice in this tournament, but now it probably faces its toughest test on the mound. The Trojans are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament with a loss today, as their only chance is to be a bid stealer via the auto entry by winning their conference tournament.
I'll be the first to admit I thought Arizona would be bad this year. With so many losses I did not expect much, but I was wrong. I don't know if I would consider the Wildcats a perennial threat to win the College World Series, but with the pitching they have, there is a shot. In any case, they are the better team. While the Wildcats are still fighting for the slim hopes they host, it's highly unlikely even if they win. In theory, USC has more to play for since it hasn't made the dance in 10 years. But that doesn't mean the Trojans will win. I'm going to continue riding that +410 ticket I have on the Cats, while doubling down this evening.
Pick: Arizona ML -160
