The MLB Trade Deadline is two weeks away, and it remains to be seen just how active the deadline will be. As play begins July 20, nine teams in the American League have at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. That number has grown because Boston and Baltimore refuse to lose. Boston now has a 14-game winning streak after snapping Baltimore's seven-game streak. The National League has six clubs with at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, with both Arizona and St. Louis coming close to that threshold.
General Managers around the league have some decisions to make in the next 14 days leading up to the 6 p.m. ET trade deadline on August 3. Fantasy managers cannot help but dislike the date and time chosen for the deadline this week, especially in mono leagues where the new talent will be sitting on the free-agent wire for a full scoring period and not available to be purchased and utilized until August 10.
In the meantime, we can start to look at players who are likely to be dealt by the non-contending teams and the multi-part impact of those potential moves. I do not believe it helpful to wishcast certain players to certain teams to look at specific impacts as much as it is helpful to look at which vacancies on a roster could free up precious playing time for some hidden skills over the final 50-something games of this season. We will work in
The MLB Trade Deadline is two weeks away, and it remains to be seen just how active the deadline will be. As play begins July 20, nine teams in the American League have at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. That number has grown because Boston and Baltimore refuse to lose. Boston now has a 14-game winning streak after snapping Baltimore's seven-game streak. The National League has six clubs with at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, with both Arizona and St. Louis coming close to that threshold.
General Managers around the league have some decisions to make in the next 14 days leading up to the 6 p.m. ET trade deadline on August 3. Fantasy managers cannot help but dislike the date and time chosen for the deadline this week, especially in mono leagues where the new talent will be sitting on the free-agent wire for a full scoring period and not available to be purchased and utilized until August 10.
In the meantime, we can start to look at players who are likely to be dealt by the non-contending teams and the multi-part impact of those potential moves. I do not believe it helpful to wishcast certain players to certain teams to look at specific impacts as much as it is helpful to look at which vacancies on a roster could free up precious playing time for some hidden skills over the final 50-something games of this season. We will work in reverse order of playoff odds to see what potential situations you can attempt to get ahead of in the next two FAAB cycles to make those FAAB dollars stretch.
Angels - 0.0% chance to make the postseason
This one is both complicated and frustrating because owner Arte Moreno has already said he is unwilling to trade key pieces at the deadline. If Moreno could set aside his ego and do what is best for the franchise, it could greatly impact the trade market. Mike Trout is the obvious name, even if his contract severely limits potential suitors. Jorge Soler, Kirby Yates and Brent Suter are all free agents after this season and the Angels should take anything offered for the trio if someone asks for them. Jo Adell is heading into his walk year with zero chance of re-signing, and the current construct of the qualifying offer could look much different once the new collective bargaining agreement is finalized.
Soler is currently hitting cleanup on a daily basis for the Angels, so his departuture would open up a nice RBI slot for someone behind Zach Neto, Trout and Nolan Schanuel. Adell, should he stay, would seem to benefit most from that as moving him up would be the logical move on paper. Kyren Paris (remember him?) is doing well in Triple-A and could be recalled to join the outfield. He has 16 steals in the minors this season and has a healthy .442 on-base percentage in Salt Lake over 30 games.
Rockies - 0.0% chance to make the postseason
Colorado at least looks more competitive on the field this year than in previous seasons, even if Hunter Goodman is carrying the team on his back with 30 homers this season. The Rockies have two likely free agents in Antonio Senzatela and Michael Lorenzen, as each pitcher has a big club option that is unliikely to be picked up this winter. A trade involving Senzatela removes one of the three options the club currently uses for saves, potentially freeing up a handful for Juan Mejia and Jordan Romano.
Willi Castro has an affordable $6.4M salary for next season and the club needs to clear some paths for its prospects. Castro's versatility would be valued on the open market for a club looking to lengthen its bench with someone that can play four positions. Castro vacating second base opens up the possibility for a Edouard Julien/Tyler Freeman platoon at second base or perhaps another peek at Adael Amador. It would be fun for the club to find room for Zac Veen, but Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Cole Carrigg are doing well and none of them are cost-prohibitive to retain for another year. Moniak is a free agent after the 2027 season, so the club could look to sell high on their former bargain pickup, but his home/road splits will not be attractive to other teams.
Royals - 0.2% chance to make the postseason
Few, if any, saw this disastrous season coming. The two most obvious trade pieces here are the two unrestricted free agents this winter in Matt Strahm and Lane Thomas. It would not surprise me to see these two dealt as a tandem package to a team, but their odds of remaining with the Royals are lower than the team's chance of making the postseason. Thomas, like Soler, is the regular cleanup hitter for the Royals these days, so his departure would likely impact his fantasy value because he is not guaranteed the playing time nor the favorable lineup spot with his new team. It would not be a surprise to see Salvador Perez back in the cleanup spot as Matt Quatraro likes to break up the lefty bats of Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino with a right-handed bat. Maikel Garcia, once he's back from the injured list, could also slide into that spot.
Strahm's value would not change much with a new home, but he could see some better leverage situations not often afforded to him with Kansas City. The only potential starter deal could be with Michael Wacha, who is guaranteed through 2027 with a club option for 2028. The Royals should absolutely listen to offers for him, and a relocation of his talents to a better club could help him reach double-digit wins for a fifth consecutive season.
Giants - 0.4% chance to make the postseason
The Giants have three easy trade pieces that will be moved: Robbie Ray, Luis Arraez and Tyler Mahle. Each are unrestricted free agents after this season, and at least the first two should have several open-market suitors. Ray's departure could hurt his fantasy production, as the veteran has thoroughly enjoyed pitching at home (2.44 ERA, .184 avg) while struggling on the road (4.35 ERA, .264 avg). Arraez will hit anywhere, but he may not necessarily lead off in a new location as often as he has with San Francisco. Ray's departure would open up a rotation spot for the club to see where Carson Whisenhunt or Blade Tidwell are in their development. There does not appear to be a clear favorite for replacing Arraez, but perhaps the club would consider moving Casey Schmitt to second base full-time to free up time for Parks Harber as long as Matt Chapman is on the IL with his abdominal issue.
Athletics - 0.8% chance to make the postseason
Mark Leiter Jr. and Jonah Heim are both unrestricted free agents after the season and are very likely to be dealt away to a contender looking for upgrades on the margins. Jeff McNeil has a club option that will not be picked up, but his market value has all but evaporated this season. Jeffrey Springs has a $15 million club option and would love to get out of Sacramento, where his ERA is 1.6 runs higher than it is on the road. Springs, in the right new home, could be something in deeper leagues.
Leiter Jr.'s pending departure does little for his value or anyone in the bullpen because the situation was already a committee. Heim's departure would take away his value because he is startable in Sacramento and unusable away from home. The next man up in Sacramento would be former Rockies catcher Brian Serven or journeyman Chad Wallach. Top catcher Shea Langeliers is heading into his second arbitration year; the Oakland version of this team would absolutely deal him, while it is uncertain whether this nomadic version with a foot already in Las Vegas will do so. Langeliers has a dead-even split on his homers, but hits 50 points higher at home than he does on the road.
Mets - 1.1% chance to make the postseason
What a mess. Bo Bichette could opt out of his deal this winter, and is playing himself into a trade value where a new team could take the chance Bichette likes his new home and does not opt out of his deal. Freddy Peralta and Brooks Raley are each unrestricted free agents to be moved while Luke Weaver's bullpen experience may be worth his $11 million pricetag for 2027. Luis Torrens has two more years of a deal paying him $11.5 million to serve as Francisco Alvarez's mentor, but that contract and his defensive abilities could prove to be valuable on this trade market.
Bichette's departure would open up more time for Brett Baty at third while bumping up the likes of Francisco Lindor and Carson Benge in the middle of the lineup. Peralta's departure opens up a spot for Jonah Tong or Tobias Myers, but the bridge to Devin Williams will need major remodeling if both Weaver and Raley depart in the next two weeks.
Reds - 1.1% chance to make the postseason
The once red-hot Reds have cooled off in a big way and will now be jettisoning some players at the deadline. Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson are the leading unrestricted free agents available, with Brock Burke, Caleb Ferguson and Nathaniel Lowe behind them in the pecking order. Eugenio Suarez has not had a good homecoming this season and has a mutual option for 2027 which could potentially make him marketable over these next few weeks.
Singer's departure could line up with Nick Lodolo's next return from his blister issue, because they otherwise do not have a logical replacement for him in the rotation. Will Banfield or P.J. Higgins could step up into the second catcher role behind Jose Trevino, unless he too is dealt away and the club simply promotes from the depth chart. The two lefties in the pen are part of the bridge to Emilio Pagan, so Pagan's save chances could be potentially reduced. Finally, Stephenson's playing time should not be reduced by a relocation nor should his spot in the lineup, as he has spent most of the season hitting sixth or seventh for the Reds.
Nationals - 5.1% chance to make the postseason
This is an interesting situation because the club does not have a glaring contract to be dealt. The most obvious player would be Luis Garcia Jr., who is heading into his final year of arbitration without a real defensive home. Foster Griffin is a free agent and has been a tremendous value purchase by the club and one they could get a very nice return in a deal. Miles Mikolas is also a free agent, but he is having a terrible season. Zack Littell could offer some innings to another club, just as long as it's in a big ballpark to insulate him from his perpetual gopheritis.
A departure of Garcia would open up more time for Andres Chaparro, who is already getting most of the games against lefties in a platoon with Garcia these days. Should the club deal Griffin and/or Littell, they do not exactly have a logical replacement plan, with four starting pitchers in Triple-A currently on the injured list — matching what the major-league club already has on the injured list. The club could get into one of those buying and selling modes where they are moving expiring assets for players who are controllable into next season.
Padres - 9.7% chance to make the postseason
The Padres are very likely to be just marginal players in this trade market unless they decide to sell Mason Miller ahead of what will be some very expensive arbitration seasons with his super two status. There have been rumors that the club wishes to package Miller with the bloated contract of Xander Bogaerts, but even in that scenario, San Diego is going to have to keep some of that on the books. Michael King is signed for two more seasons, but he has an opt out after this season and a player option for 2028. Should Miller be dealt, Adrian Morejon is next in line, with Jason Adam on the injured list for a few weeks. Gavin Sheets is a year away from free agency, so we cannot necessarily rule him out for being dealt. However, the organizational depth chart is rather thin thanks to all the wheeling and dealing by A.J. Preller in recent seasons, so Sheets could just stay put.
Blue Jays - 10.9% chance to make the postseason
Anyone know a good cure for a World Series hangover? If so, send it to 1 Blue Jays Way, Toronto, Ontario M5V 1J1, Canada. Toronto is now eight games below .500 and struggling to hit for power, highlighted by the franchise player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., going without a home run at home in 207 plate appearances and counting. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer and Daulton Varsho are each unrestricted free agents after this season and the club could very well tender Gausman a qualifying offer if that mechanism persists in the next collective bargaining agreement.
Varsho's departure would likely turn center field into a platoon situation with Myles Straw and Nathan Lukes while giving Jonatan Clase more time in left field and handing right field to Jesus Sanchez once he returns from the injured list. The pitching situation is interesting, as there is a case to be made that all three could be moved as Scherzer is tracking toward returning by the deadline. The Jays could promote the likes of Ricky Tiedemann and recall CJ Van Eyk, or go to Johnny Bullpen outings in those rotation spots. In all, nobody envisioned this team going from winning the American League to finishing last in the American League East the next season, but it seems inevitable at this point.
Astros - 16.3% chance to make the postseason
This feels like an Angels situation where ownership is going to prevent the club from doing what should be done, unless Houston goes on a heater here before the deadline and turns themselves into buyers. The club is six games below .500 and is running on all cylinders at this point. The recently got Ronel Blanco back in their rotation as well, so there is no time like the present for them. Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Enyel De Los Santos, Christian Vazquez and LaMonte Wade Jr. are all unrestricted free agents, so the Astros could make several small deals with those players and create an issue bridging the gap between their rotation and Josh Hader down the stretch. Abreu, Okert and De Los Santos are essentially the A-bullpen for the Astros, but Miguel Ullola would lead the charge of the replacements.
Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker each have one more year under contract, with Paredes being more affordable, so there is a chance either one could be dealt. Raynel Delgado, who has good speed, could be one of the names used for third base should Paredes be dealt, but there is no clearcut option at first if Walker were to depart.
Marlins - 21.1% chance to make the postseason
There are really two situations to look at here: Pete Fairbanks and Sandy Alcantara. Fairbanks is an unrestricted free agent after the season, but has had a disastrous season in the Miami pen with a 7.42 ERA and 13 saves. He has the experience, so someone will likely add him as a low-cost buy for bullpen depth. Alcantara is under a $21 million club option next season that Miami, or any club, would pick up. Miami should absolutely be listening to offers for their ace as they are positioning themselves to be a factor by the end of this decade. Michael Petersen could step up to close out games while Braxton Garrett could be recalled to rejoin the rotation, as he is having a terrific season for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp.
Twins - 23.1% chance to make the postseason
Monday's blowout loss to the Guardians which saw Joe Ryan allow six homers may have sealed the deal for this club. They still have nearly as much of a chance to win their division (11.3 percent) as they do to clinch a wildcard (11.9 percent), and the scheduling overlords have done them a solid. The Twins, after wrapping up this critical four-game set with the Guardians, then host the Athletics and the Royas for six before traveling to Seattle leading up to the trade deadline. If Minnesota can turn around this current series and then catch a wave with that easy home schedule, they are suddenly buyers. If not, they have several stories for the trade market.
Ryan Jeffers and Taylor Rogers are both unrestricted free agents and would be welcomed additions to a contending club's depth chart. Jeffers could even retain his primary catching duties post-trade. Josh Bell has a mutual option for next year, but is it really a trade deadline without Josh Bell being dealt somewhere? Bell's playing time could be limited elsewhere because most contending teams are firmed up at first and DH, so there is a threat of playing time being lost here. Joe Ryan also has a mutual option, and perhaps that was on his mind last evening when Petey Halpin, of all people, went yard off him twice. Ryan would bring back a decent haul if the club does indeed deal him. Alex Jackson and Victor Caratini would take over the catching duties while Connor Prielipp would rejoin the rotation once he's done with his current rehab assignment. Bell's roster spot could be filled Matt Wallner and others.
These odds change by the day, and teams such as Baltimore, St Louis and Arizona are but a small losing streak from becoming sellers as well. Each has at least a 25 percent chance to make the postseason right now, but the path to the postseason narrows with each loss this time of year.
