Top MLB Betting Picks for July 22: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
- 2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 6-8-1 (-4.79 units)
- 2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 9-7 (+1.18 units)
A Marlins squad that's now lost eight in a row after dropping the first two games of its three-game interleague set against the Astros tries once again to snap its skid in Wednesday night's series finale.
Miami trots out its wins leader Sandy Alcantara, while Houston counters with the increasingly impressive Peter Lambert, who's enjoying a career-best season.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game.
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MLB Picks for Marlins at Astros
- SGP: Marlins +1.5 and Over 2.5 runs - F5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jeremy Pena 2+ Total Bases (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Miami Marlins at Houston Astros Best Bets
The Marlins' extensive slump has been quite the shocker considering how well the team played for the majority of the first half of the season, so much so that Miami still has a 52-50 record despite the eight straight losses. Alcantara's presence on the mound Wednesday does offer some reason for optimism, although the metrics paint somewhat of a murky picture.
Alcantara boasts an impressive 10-5 mark overall, which he complements with a 3.89 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9 and a fastball that still averages a blistering 97.5 mph. That hasn't translated to a lot of Ks, however, as Alcantara's 7.1 K/9 is the second-lowest figure of his career.
The veteran right-hander has had more trouble on the road, where he owns a 4.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 1.3 HR/9 across 70.1 innings. Alcantara's season-long advanced metrics are solid, however, as he has a .298 xwOBA and 3.70 xERA, and the 5.3 percent barrel rate he's surrendering ties for the second-lowest figure of his career.
There are some matchup-specific concerns here too: current Astros hitters own a collective .269 average, .725 OPS and five extra-base hits against him in 56 career encounters.
On the other side, it turns out all Lambert needed to do to start successfully leveraging his talents was get out of Coors Field. The right-hander came into the season — his debut Astros campaign — with a career 8-19 record, 6.28 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. However, he's fashioned an 8-5 mark, 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and solid 8.9 K/9 across 92 innings over 16 starts thus far in 2026.
Lambert has been slightly better at run prevention on the road, but he still has a very respectable 3.17 ERA and lower 1.07 WHIP at home. Lambert's Statcast profile corroborates his success, as he has a 1.99 xBA, .282 xwOBA and 3.29 xERA. However, he's facing a very tough (on paper) challenge from the Marlins, who, despite their recent struggles, still boast a .288 average, .887 OPS, .382 wOBA and MLB-best 22.3 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road in the last month.
Given Alcantara's talent and Miami's real success against right-handed pitching, our same-game parlay banks on the Marlins being no more than one run down at the end of five and on at least three runs being scored between the two teams during that same span. The outlook for the scoring leg of the bet gets an additional boost from the fact Lambert has surrendered eight of his 11 homers this season within the first five innings.
Then, with Pena one of those Astros hitters that has given Alcantara trouble — he has a pair of doubles and a walk over four career plate appearances against the Marlins starter — and considering Houston's star shortstop has a .358 average, 1.066 OPS and .453 wOBA against righties at home, we're banking on him getting to at least two total bases for our player prop.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Marlins +1.5 and Over 2.5 runs - F5 (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jeremy Pena 2+ Total Bases (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
