A busy 13-game slate is on tap Tuesday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Just one arm is priced in five-figures with only four more clearing the $9,000 barrier, making for pretty lean pitching consideration.
Coors Field is present, giving us a mamoth 13.0 run total, but as expected with the lack of elite arms, six additional games come with at least a 9.0 total. Also as expected with missing aces, there's no big favorite. The Yankees check in at (-154), followed by Atlanta (-134) and the Diamondbacks (-134). Rain needs to be carefully monitored in New York and Boston; both spots could have favorable winds if they play. Conditions look favorable in Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City, while early wind reports suggest heavy inbound blows in Chicago, likely limiting power chances.
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Pitching
Ranger Suarez, BOS vs. BAL ($9,300): Suarez had earned between 30 and and 46 FDP in six straight starts before leaving his last outing early with a groin strain. He should be rested and healthy here, and why not target the starter on a team that's won 14 straight? He's dominated Pete Alonso (2-for-20, seven Ks) and Baltimore comes with a sub-4.0 run expectancy. Weather is a concern however.
Framber Valdez, DET at CHC ($8,600): A potential play simply based on conditions. Valdez brings a 52.3 percent ground ball rate into Tuesday, and if the winds are blowing in, he'll likely have to be singled to death to be damaged. The Cubs have been well above average against lefties, sitting with a 118 wRC+ otherwise. Valdez has shown he still has potential, reaching 40+ FDP in three of his last five. Detroit is curiously underdogs here, but we've got a low 8.0 run total, making it a targetable spot for Valdez.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. CIN ($7,700): Castillo had flashed moderately decent before his last outing where he allowed three homers, but in a home start here that seems less of a concern. He was off consecutive quality starts prior, and had allowed two runs or less in five of seven, striking out four or more in each outing. The Reds have the second-lowest wRC+ off righties at 85 while striking out 24.9 percent of the time. It's unlikely Castillo offers any type of ceiling, but he can be serviceable for the price. If seeking the higher upside on the cheap, consider Matthew Liberatore ($7,800) or Tatsuya Imai ($7,900), both of whom have implosion potential.
Top Targets
The Nationals have to be first considered against Michael Lorenzen, who's allowing a .421 wOBA to lefties. They're unfortunately getting a massive Coors Field price increase, possibly taking James Wood ($4,900) out of viability. CJ Abrams ($4,300) isn't cheap either but has homered in two straight and is more palatable.
Shea Langeliers ($3,500) has cooled overall, but is riding a five-game hitting streak and has a .435 wOBA overall off lefties and is facing a rookie making his debut in Kohl Drake.
Wyatt Langford ($3,400) has produced whenever he's been healthy this season. Texas' offense isn't overly trustworthy, but Noah Schultz has a 6.35 road ERA and the Rangers are expected to flirt with five runs, which Langford will be in the middle of.
Bargain Bats
Tyler Mahle is being pelted on the road by both lefties and righties, but same-handed bats have an appealing .463 wOBA and 1.064 OPS against him. With Bobby Witt uncertain, we can find value in Salvador Perez ($2,700) and Lane Thomas ($2,700), both of whom are swinging well presently.
Jacob Wilson ($2,900) is hitting .366 over his last 10 and has homered in two of his last three. Pairing him with Langeliers is a viable play.
Stack to Consider
Atlanta vs. Walker Buehler (Padres): Drake Baldwin ($3,800), Michael Harris ($3,300), Ozzie Albies ($3,100)
Atlanta comes with a nice 5.2 run expectancy and are amongst the bigger favorites Tuesday. This isn't a stack against Buehler's splits despite rolling with three lefties here, rather just his general form, having allowed 20 runs and six homers in his last three outings, lasting just 11.0 innings. Baldwin is white hot, hitting .395 with three homers and 11 RBI in his last 10, giving him the nod as the payup choice over Matt Olson ($3,700). Harris has homered in two of three, amassing 12 hits in his last 10. Albies is simply a third top of the order piece for a fair price.
Giants vs. Luinder Avila (Royals): Rafael Devers ($3,200), Casey Schmitt ($3,200), Luis Arraez ($2,900)
Avila has a 9.68 home ERA, allowing a .487 wOBA to lefties and .445 to righties. Pair that with the Giants 5.0 run expectancy and favorable weather for hitters and San Francisco's lineup can be targeted across the board with them all being cheap. Devers is cold but gives us power potential, while Arraez helps boost this stack's floor with 12 hits in his last 10. Schmitt gets my preference as the third piece simply due to his position flexibility, which also makes him a nice standalone consideration.
