MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 22
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San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
The Padres vs. Braves best bet on Wednesday's MLB slate is backing the San Diego Padres moneyline. While Atlanta enters as a slight home favorite, the matchup presents value on San Diego thanks to a significant edge on the mound. Michael King has been one of the National League's most consistent starters this season, while the Braves turn to Martin Perez in his first outing after returning from the injured list. When the betting market prices this game near a pick'em, the value lies with the Padres.
King has quietly put together an outstanding campaign, posting a 3.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts across 113.1 innings. His ability to generate weak contact while limiting walks has made him one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball. More importantly for bettors, King has consistently kept San Diego in games by working deep into starts, giving the Padres an advantage before the bullpen takes over.
Atlanta counters with Perez, who owns respectable season numbers, including a 3.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but Wednesday marks his return from the injured list after missing time with a forearm injury. Even if Perez is effective, there is uncertainty surrounding his pitch count and workload, increasing the likelihood that Atlanta will rely heavily on its bullpen earlier than expected.
Momentum also favors San Diego. The Padres defeated the Braves 8-3 on Tuesday, improving to 4-1 against Atlanta this season. Manny Machado homered twice, Fernando Tatis Jr. continued his strong play, and San Diego's lineup showed the offensive depth that makes it dangerous against left-handed pitching.
Atlanta's 30-20 home record is the biggest concern when backing San Diego, and the Braves remain one of the National League's better teams. However, this line appears to reflect Atlanta's season-long reputation more than Wednesday's pitching matchup. From a betting perspective, getting the better starting pitcher at essentially even money creates positive expected value over the long run.
For bettors looking to isolate the starting pitching advantage, the Padres First Five Innings Moneyline is another excellent option. Michael King's consistency gives San Diego the edge early, while the full-game moneyline still offers value because of the Padres' recent offensive surge and success against Atlanta.
Final Pick: Padres Moneyline. The combination of Michael King's edge on the mound, uncertainty surrounding Martin Perez's return, and the market offering San Diego at nearly even money makes the Padres one of the strongest MLB betting picks on Wednesday's slate.
Best Bet: Padres ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports +103)
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
The Dodgers vs. Phillies best bet on Wednesday's MLB slate is the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (-117). While both clubs are playoff contenders, Los Angeles enters this matchup with the better overall roster, a significant offensive advantage, and the hotter starting pitcher. Add in Philadelphia's struggles from Aaron Nola this season, and the value remains on the Dodgers despite being road favorites.
The starting pitching matchup is much closer than the season ERAs might suggest, but recent form favors Los Angeles. Eric Lauer owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 76.2 innings, yet he has quietly been one of the Dodgers' most consistent arms over the past month. Lauer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, including a dominant six-inning shutout against the Twins and quality performances against Pittsburgh, Colorado and Tampa Bay. He's consistently worked into the sixth inning while limiting hard contact, giving Los Angeles exactly what it needs before handing the ball over to one of baseball's best bullpens.
Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola, whose season has been filled with inconsistency. The veteran right-hander enters with a 5.68 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, with opponents hitting .279 against him. Although Nola has strung together several respectable outings recently, he has still allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last ten starts and has struggled to consistently put hitters away when traffic builds. Facing the Dodgers' disciplined lineup is one of the toughest assignments in baseball.
The offensive numbers overwhelmingly favor Los Angeles. The Dodgers rank third in MLB in runs scored (5.2 per game), first in on-base percentage (.341), second in slugging (.430) and first in OPS (.771). They also own a 33-19 road record, proving they can win away from Chavez Ravine against quality opponents. Philadelphia, meanwhile, averages just 4.3 runs per game and ranks near the bottom of baseball in batting average (.236), on-base percentage (.303), and OPS (.705).
The Dodgers also own the edge on the mound beyond the starters. Their pitching staff ranks first in WHIP (1.12), first in opponent batting average (.217), and third in team ERA (3.54), giving Los Angeles a clear advantage if this game is close entering the late innings.
The combination of Eric Lauer's recent consistency, Aaron Nola's season-long struggles, the Dodgers' elite offense and a decisive bullpen advantage makes Los Angeles the stronger side. At -117 or better, the Dodgers offer one of the best moneyline values on Wednesday's MLB betting board.
Best Bet: Dodgers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports -117)
Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
The Detroit Tigers may be under .500, but Wednesday's matchup against the Chicago Cubs presents one of the better betting opportunities on the MLB slate. With Keider Montero taking the mound against Colin Rea, the value lies on the Tigers moneyline.
Keider Montero has quietly developed into one of Detroit's most dependable starters. Through 100.2 innings, the right-hander owns a 3.22 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and has held opposing hitters to just a .212 batting average.
His recent body of work has been especially impressive. Since the end of May, Montero has delivered quality outings against strong offenses, including seven scoreless innings versus Houston, 6.1 shutout innings against Minnesota and six scoreless innings against the White Sox. Even in games where he hasn't worked deep, he's continued to limit hard contact and keep runners off the bases.
The consistency is what stands out most. Montero has maintained a WHIP around 1.00 for most of the season, giving Detroit a reliable chance to win every time he takes the ball.
Chicago counters with Colin Rea, who enters with a 4.74 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 100.2 innings. While Rea has battled through the season, his inability to consistently miss bats or limit baserunners has made him susceptible to crooked innings.
That difference in traffic allowed is significant. Montero has consistently pitched from ahead, while Rea often finds himself working around multiple baserunners, creating opportunities for opposing offenses.
On paper, the Cubs own the stronger offense, averaging over five runs per game with one of the National League's better OPS marks. However, Detroit's pitching staff has been one of the club's biggest strengths all season.
The Tigers rank among the league leaders with a 3.67 team ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Tigers pitchers have allowed just 99 home runs, the second-fewest in baseball. That profile matches up well against a Cubs lineup that has leaned heavily on the long ball throughout the season.
The betting market is pricing this game close to even despite a noticeable edge on the mound for Detroit. When an underdog or slight favorite possesses the superior starting pitcher, there is often value worth backing.
Montero has proven capable of shutting down quality lineups, while Rea's higher ERA and WHIP leave far less room for error against a Tigers team that simply needs timely hitting behind another strong pitching performance.
With the superior starter, one of baseball's better overall pitching staffs, and plus-value pricing, Detroit is the side to back in Wednesday's Tigers vs. Cubs matchup.
Best Bet: Tigers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports +105)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Padres ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports +103)
- Dodgers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports -117)
- Tigers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports +105)
