This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, May 17

The Philadelphia Phillies Are the First to 30 Wins

There has been much media fanfare about how well the Philadelphia Phillies' season has started. They were the first to 30 wins in MLB and these teams have gone on to make the playoffs in 17 of the past 20 seasons. The last team to reach 30 wins first and then miss the playoffs was the Texas Rangers in 2013. They went 91-72, but lost the AL West title to the Oakland A's by 5.5 games and trailed by a single game for the two Wild Card berths. Eight of these teams have reached the World Series and six of them have won it over the past 20 seasons. 

Best Bets: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees

The White Sox will start a three-game set against the New York Yankees with the first pitch scheduled for 7:06 p.m. ET at Yankees Stadium in the Bronx. The Yankees are an expensive -250 home favorite using the moneyline and the betting community is likely to push this line higher. The total has been priced at 8.0 runs paying -113 vig for an Over bet and 8.5 runs paying -115 for the Under bet at DraftKings.

Over my 30 years of professional sports betting, I learned that identifying underdogs in optimal situations is the path to profitability in MLB. These specific situations often reveal an opportunity involving an underdog that our common sense says has no chance of winning that game. I have one of those dogs for the Friday card and it involves one of the worst teams in the AL on the road and facing one of the best teams in the AL.

The market overvalues the best teams in MLB when playing against a struggling team. However, if you bet on a favorite priced at -250 using the moneyline and lose you then need three consecutive wins to recover from that one loss. So, if you choose to bet big favorites of -200 and greater using the moneyline, you must win at least 67 percent of those games just to break even. Although it may appear to be easy to win more than 67 percent of these games involving the best teams in MLB it is very difficult.

The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day

The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an 87-159 record for just 35.4% winning bets, but averaging a 222 underdog bet results in a highly profitable 12 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $34,560 profit over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

·      Bet on underdogs priced at 175 and greater using the moneyline.

·      The underdog has played five consecutive games and did not have 10 or more hits in any of them.

·      Our underdog has a solid bullpen posting a 3.00 or lower ERA over its last 10 games.

If we drill down farther into the database we learn that if these dogs are priced between a 200 and 250 dog and facing a non-divisional foe they improve to 24-38 for 39 percent winning bets, but by averaging a 225 wager results in a highly profitable 24 percent ROI and a $22,350 profit for the Dime Bettor on only 62 bets spanning the past five seasons. So, a bettor following this system is going to lose far more bets than they win, but they know that throughout the season, significant profits have been made in each of the past five seasons.

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Who Are the Starters?

The White Sox will have right-hander Mike Clevinger on the hill, who is 0-1 in two starts with a 5.40 ERA and a 2.099 WHIP. His second start was significantly better completing 5.1 innings, allowing one run on four hits and with no free passes. In five career starts against the Yankees, he is 2-2 with a solid 3.00 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP. His last two starts against the Yankees last season saw him go 1-1 winning the last start 9-2 where he completed six strong innings allowing one earned run on three hits with three walks and six strikeouts. 

Clevinger averages 94 MPH, which has heavy late-breaking sinking action. He augments his sinker with an extremely good change that averages 86 MPH. These two pitches combine for nearly 70 percent of his pitches thrown. His change averages a very low 1,500 RPM, which accounts for the effect gravity has on that pitch as it gets close to the plate. This combination of pitches works extremely well against an aggressive pull-happy team like the Yankees.

The Yankees will hand the ball to right-hander Nestor Cortes, who is 1-4 in nine starts with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, including 51 strikeouts spanning 53.2 innings of work. His fastball accounts for 50 percent of his pitches thrown, averages 91 MPH, and is slightly below the league average. He then mixes in a curveball that averages 86 MPH and accounts for 30 percent of his pitches thrown and uses it against both right and left-handed batters. He also has a pitch that I call a frisbee that averages 14 percent of his pitches thrown and averages just 77 MPH. 

Cortes has been outstanding when pitching ahead in the count, allowing a .084 batting average and 28 percent whiff percentage this season. However, this elite performance level is prone to regression. The White Sox hitters will be prepared to try and get ahead early in the count knowing Cortes has allowed a .347 batting average and 18 percent whiff percentage this season.

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Current Form

After a horrific start to the season that saw them with just three wins in their first 25 games, the White Sox have played much better ball since. Over the next 18 games, they have posted a solid 10-8 record averaging a 152 underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 35 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor an $8,680 profit. So, the market has not adjusted its pricing to the current performance level and remains pricing them as that team that started poorly.

The Yankees are the first AL team to earn 30 wins on the season and in all their games have averaged a -135-wager good for a 14 percent ROI and making the Dime Bettor a $8,740 profit this season. The Yankees have won four consecutive coming off a road sweep of the Minnesota Twins and now begin a seven-game homestand starting with this three-game set against the White Sox. The Yankees are 10-18 in home games when on a two-or-more-game win streak averaging a 153-favorite resulting in a terrible -38 percent ROI and causing the Dime Bettor a $14,420 loss in games played over the past two seasons.

A Few Pizza Money-Sized Player Prop Bets

·      Bet the White Sox Mike Clevinger to record 5.0 or more strikeouts priced at +116 at FanDuel.

·      Bet the Yankees Juan Soto to score a run priced at +115 at BetMGM.

•  Juan Soto has had one game in which he did not get a hit. In the following game, he has scored at least one run in five of those 11 games providing great value on this bet.

·      Bet the Nationals Jake Irvin to allow three or more earned runs priced at -150 at BetMGM.